The 2016 Presidential Election Trainwreck

[byu71]

I keep saying this, but it is really true; I don't partake of Fox News or talk radio. But from my Twitter feed and other online sources, I've heard that both Hannity and Trump have pushed for Trump. I'm not sure where they are now. I don't know about Fox News, but doesn't Ann Coulter comment on there? And I know she's all in for Trump.

But yeah, I agree that it does seem that most of the conservative intelligentsia is against Trump now. In my opinion, that doesn't invalidate my argument. Those same organizations have been relentlessly attacked the 'establishment', whether it be squishy republicans or mainstream media. Their fans have heard this message now for over a generation, and they want what those hosts have been arguing for. In Trump's favor, who currently is more anti-establishment than him? He is the personification of what conservative talk show hosts have implicitly wanted as long as they've been around, just not in the same anti-establishment way they had hoped for. It doesn't matter that those organizations have now realized just how close Trump is to winning the nomination, and that they are trying to stem the tide that they themselves have created. He is the Frankenstein of their own making.

If you look at the ratings for Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh, Ingels basically all of them, the ratings are down. I know in my own family and friends circle, none of them are fans of those people and a lot of them used to be. Hannity is always saying, I am not a republican, I am a conservative. Is he really stupid enough to believe there are enough people in America that want to be governed by his brand of conservatism.

Heck, Trump isn't even close to their thinking. Their man should be Cruz. Instead of wanting 70% of cake, they want it all. Even Donald in his dealing negotiates and doesn't get 100% his way. Sadly, the nuts like Rudzeki have far too much control of the party I belong to and is making me have second thoughts of remaining in the party. I would never become a democrat though if they also stay controlled by their radicals. I like republican radicals far more than democrat radicals. I would vote for Cruz over Bernie.

[Sullyute]

I hate saying this, but I think I might vote for Hillary over Trump and Cruz.

:rockon1: :clap:

[Applejack]

I keep saying this, but it is really true; I don't partake of Fox News or talk radio. But from my Twitter feed and other online sources, I've heard that both Hannity and Trump have pushed for Trump. I'm not sure where they are now. I don't know about Fox News, but doesn't Ann Coulter comment on there? And I know she's all in for Trump.

But yeah, I agree that it does seem that most of the conservative intelligentsia is against Trump now. In my opinion, that doesn't invalidate my argument. Those same organizations have been relentlessly attacked the 'establishment', whether it be squishy republicans or mainstream media. Their fans have heard this message now for over a generation, and they want what those hosts have been arguing for. In Trump's favor, who currently is more anti-establishment than him? He is the personification of what conservative talk show hosts have implicitly wanted as long as they've been around, just not in the same anti-establishment way they had hoped for. It doesn't matter that those organizations have now realized just how close Trump is to winning the nomination, and that they are trying to stem the tide that they themselves have created. He is the Frankenstein of their own making.

Not surprising.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The rhetoric is heating up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...82d_story.html

Finally, to all of you Republicans who have already dropped out, one more, great act of public service awaits you. As candidates, you pledged to support whomever the Republican party nominated. It’s time to revoke your pledge. Be bold, stand up and shout that you will not support Trump if he is your party’s nominee. Do it together. Hold one big mother of a news conference. Endorse Rubio, together. It is time to draw a bright line, and you are the ones on whom this burden falls. No one else can do it.

[wuapinmon]

[Northwestcoug]

Not surprising.

I meant to say Hannity and Limbaugh.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Lol at Carson staying in the race, what a dummy.

Kasich needs to look at the recent polling out of Michigan and Massachusetts and also get out. He didn't get a bounce out of NH and has no path to the nomination.

I imagine the polling will come at a fast pace this week and hopefully they show Rubio getting a bounce and Cruz sliding. The writing would have to be on the wall for Cruz at that point and you would hope that he'd accept a deal from Rubio for an AG or a SC nomination (supposing that the Senate would confirm him to the SC).

I think it's going to be too late for all of this after March 1. And Kasich doesn't appear as if he's leaving and Cruz isn't even close.

[BlueK]

Lol at Carson staying in the race, what a dummy.

Kasich needs to look at the recent polling out of Michigan and Massachusetts and also get out. He didn't get a bounce out of NH and has no path to the nomination.

I imagine the polling will come at a fast pace this week and hopefully they show Rubio getting a bounce and Cruz sliding. The writing would have to be on the wall for Cruz at that point and you would hope that he'd accept a deal from Rubio for an AG or a SC nomination (supposing that the Senate would confirm him to the SC).

I think it's going to be too late for all of this after March 1. And Kasich doesn't appear as if he's leaving and Cruz isn't even close.

Most of the states coming up next are pretty favorable for Cruz. He's not getting out any time soon. Rubio won't either. The other thing to keep in mind is that there isn't another winner-take-all state on the schedule until 25 more have voted. So in a 4 or 5 candidate race Trump isn't going to be able to pull away in the delegate count anytime soon. Remember how it took Romney so long to clinch it last time? It was because too many stayed in the race heading into this same stretch of proportional delegate states.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Most of the states coming up next are pretty favorable for Cruz. He's not getting out any time soon. Rubio won't either. The other thing to keep in mind is that there isn't another winner-take-all state on the schedule until 25 more have voted. So in a 4 or 5 candidate race Trump isn't going to be able to pull away in the delegate count anytime soon. Remember how it took Romney so long to clinch it last time? It was because too many stayed in the race heading into this same stretch of proportional delegate states.

Texas I believe is also on March 1, so of course Cruz will stay in.

I also don't think that people really have a handle on Trump's support. He underperformed in Iowa and slightly underperformed in South Carolina. He outperforms in NH and the Massachusetts poll today shows him at 50%. It seems like in the evangelical states, Trump might be peaking in the low 30s, while in the states where the GOP primary voters are more lower class whites and libertarian, Trump does better.

[BlueK]

Texas I believe is also on March 1, so of course Cruz will stay in.

I also don't think that people really have a handle on Trump's support. He underperformed in Iowa and slightly underperformed in South Carolina. He outperforms in NH and the Massachusetts poll today shows him at 50%. It seems like in the evangelical states, Trump might be peaking in the low 30s, while in the states where the GOP primary voters are more lower class whites and libertarian, Trump does better.

Anyone with any libertarian leanings who is even considering Trump should be bopped on the head. Trump is as bad from a libertarian perspective as Sanders or Clinton.

[Eddie]

This morning they announced the most recent polling numbers for Utah - with Trump coming in 3rd in the state behind Rubio (1st) and Cruz (2nd).

I caught a few minutes of Doug Wright on the radio, and he made an interesting point. He said that Trump has only been able to get about a third of the votes in each of the states he's won. And as lesser candidates have dropped out, he still sits around that one third mark - other candidates percentages rise while Trump remains consistent. Wright was speculating as to whether or not Trump could break the one third number as additional candidates drop, or as other candidates drop will Trump ultimately lose ground?

Changing subjects:

I'm trying to figure out the appeal of Hillary - and my biggest question is if I've been blinded by my own biases and getting news from biased sources that are shared with me.

It is pretty obvious that Hillary not only knew about her aids were putting top secret info into insecure servers, but that she ordered them to do so. And even told them how to do it (take a photo of the screen, email that). It seems like that is indisputable at this point. The FBI has recommended that she be prosecuted, they feel so strongly about it.

There is ongoing concern that not only did she potentially compromise US security, but because she went on to delete thousands of emails after this all came out, we don't even know WHAT is compromised. Are certain operations at risk? Are sources of information compromised?

And yet she continues her march to the Democratic nomination and potentially the White House.

Do people just not care about US top secret info floating around? Or her apparent lack of interest in keeping top secret info secure? Did she plead ignorance as to insecure nature of her private server, promise to never ever do it again, and all has been forgiven? Or am I simply putting too much importance on something that ultimately really just doesn't matter.

She isn't quite made of the same teflon as Bill. But she sure seems to be skating by on this one.

[Omaha 680]

The only decent sized winner take all prizes left in the Republican side are Florida and Ohio. Rubio will surely win Florida now and Kasich is probably staying long enough to win Ohio. Like the Fund column I posted above, I don't get the Trump is inevitable mantra. Barring Cruz getting out and a significant number of his votes shifting to Trump I don't think Trump can get a majority.

[Maximus]

The only decent sized winner take all prizes left in the Republican side are Florida and Ohio. Rubio will surely win Florida now and Kasich is probably staying long enough to win Ohio. Like the Fund column I posted above, I don't get the Trump is inevitable mantra. Barring Cruz getting out and a significant number of his votes shifting to Trump I don't think Trump can get a majority.

unfortunately polls have trump up double digits in Florida.

[BlueK]

Anything taken before Iowa is pretty much worthless because the voting in previous states affects the states that vote after and the numbers can change rapidly. Do you have a link to anything taken since the primaries started, preferably at least since New Hampshire?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-3555.html

[Pelado]

Not really. Anything taken before Iowa is pretty much worthless because the voting in previous states affects the states that vote after and the numbers can change rapidly.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-3555.html

Especially with the candidates that have dropped out since Iowa. Over 18% of the average you quoted was for candidates that have suspended their campaigns.