This one will be interesting, to say the least.
Both camps have got to understand how important this debate is. A repeat performance of the debate in Denver may be the blow that spells the end of the Obama Presidency. To keep his momentum going, Romney has to show that what happened two weeks ago was no fluke. In short, they both understand that the election can be won or lost tonight.
My thoughts/predictions:
Obama lost in Denver not because he had an off night (altitude? really?), but because he was woefully underprepared. His performance was the result of a preparation process that was good enough to beat McCain, and he thought it would be good enough for Romney. He was wrong-- by a lot. As such, he will have put himself through a two-week crash course in how to beat this guy. He will have realized that his natural style-- professorial, lecturing, above-the-fray-- will lose him the election, and has done everything possible to do in two weeks to get on the attack.
Quite a bit has been made of the town-hall format, and whether it plays to the strengths and weaknesses of either candidate. I don't think it matters much, honestly, but it certainly doesn't play into Obama's strengths. He hurt himself in Denver by rambling, lecturing, and droning. He spoke longer and said less than Romney. The town hall format makes those things easier to do. He will have to work extra hard to guard against those tendencies.
Romney has yet another chance to show that the caricature which the Obama campaign has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to build is a farce. Women, in particular, have shifted in remarkable fashion from the Obama camp, which has seen a double-digit lead in that demographic dissolve into a tie. Another solid performance, guarding against any gaffes, will preserve the gains he has made. (I'll be interested to see how much he makes of Libya; most of America seems not to notice what's going on there.)
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that both candidates will put together solid performances, with both of them landing punches that will please their respective bases. Both are aware of how high the stakes are, and both will be ready for the fight. Barring any remarkable gaffes (of which both candidates are capable), my guess is that we will see a bloody draw, with one candidate or the other taking a slight advantage that will be within the margin of error, and the fight will continue.
Both camps have got to understand how important this debate is. A repeat performance of the debate in Denver may be the blow that spells the end of the Obama Presidency. To keep his momentum going, Romney has to show that what happened two weeks ago was no fluke. In short, they both understand that the election can be won or lost tonight.
My thoughts/predictions:
Obama lost in Denver not because he had an off night (altitude? really?), but because he was woefully underprepared. His performance was the result of a preparation process that was good enough to beat McCain, and he thought it would be good enough for Romney. He was wrong-- by a lot. As such, he will have put himself through a two-week crash course in how to beat this guy. He will have realized that his natural style-- professorial, lecturing, above-the-fray-- will lose him the election, and has done everything possible to do in two weeks to get on the attack.
Quite a bit has been made of the town-hall format, and whether it plays to the strengths and weaknesses of either candidate. I don't think it matters much, honestly, but it certainly doesn't play into Obama's strengths. He hurt himself in Denver by rambling, lecturing, and droning. He spoke longer and said less than Romney. The town hall format makes those things easier to do. He will have to work extra hard to guard against those tendencies.
Romney has yet another chance to show that the caricature which the Obama campaign has spent hundreds of millions of dollars to build is a farce. Women, in particular, have shifted in remarkable fashion from the Obama camp, which has seen a double-digit lead in that demographic dissolve into a tie. Another solid performance, guarding against any gaffes, will preserve the gains he has made. (I'll be interested to see how much he makes of Libya; most of America seems not to notice what's going on there.)
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is that both candidates will put together solid performances, with both of them landing punches that will please their respective bases. Both are aware of how high the stakes are, and both will be ready for the fight. Barring any remarkable gaffes (of which both candidates are capable), my guess is that we will see a bloody draw, with one candidate or the other taking a slight advantage that will be within the margin of error, and the fight will continue.
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