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Seismologist one week off in calling Abruzzo 'quake

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  • Seismologist one week off in calling Abruzzo 'quake

    A little-noticed controversy had erupted the week before, after Giampaolo Giuliani, a seismologist at the nearby Gran Sasso National Laboratory in Abruzzo, predicted, following months of small tremors in the area, that a much bigger jolt was on its way. The researcher had said that a "disastrous" earthquake would strike on March 29, but when it didn't, Guido Bertolaso, head of Italy's Civil Protection Agency, officially denounced Giuliani in court last week for "false alarm." "These imbeciles enjoy spreading false news," Bertolaso was quoted as saying. "Everyone knows that you can't predict earthquakes."

    Using a method that measures gasses emitted by small tremors, Giuliani, it turns out, was partially right. A much smaller seismic shift struck on the day he said it would, with the truly disastrous one arriving just one week later. "Someone owes me an apology," Giuliani, who is also a resident of L'Aquila, told reporters on Monday. "The situation here is dramatic. I am devastated but also angry."
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/2009040...08599188964400

  • #2
    I'm glad everyone understands the notion of "confidence intervals".
    Everything in life is an approximation.

    http://twitter.com/CougarStats

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    • #3
      "Someone owes me an apology," Giuliani, who is also a resident of L'Aquila, told reporters on Monday. "The situation here is dramatic. I am devastated but also angry."

      Really? You want an apology? Why? Everyone already realizes that you were right, that you pulled some nostradamus crap out of your ass, regardless if it was a week off, and now you want everyone to bow down? How about you get upsetp about the poor emergency response or something instead of worrying about how your professional reputation may have been slighted by an elected official.
      Ain't it like most people, I'm no different. We love to talk on things we don't know about.

      Dig your own grave, and save!

      "The only one of us who is so significant that Jeff owes us something simply because he decided to grace us with his presence is falafel." -- All-American

      "I know that you are one of the cool and 'edgy' BYU fans" -- Wally

      GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

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      • #4
        I wonder what they could have done even if they'd taken the information seriously.

        Evacuation isn't really an option, especially given how frequently earthquakes occur in the region. Plus those buildings are really, really old. Retrofitting would have been a nightmare, both in cost and in labor.

        The scary thing is that many newer buildings (hospitals, dorms) either collapsed or sustained serious damage. It's time to reevaluate your architecture.

        It sounds almost Katrina-ish in the way they were flirting with disaster

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