Kill Newt's Chances of Winning the Republican Nomination for President of the US

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I hear that tonight's debate is back to the "Ricci Lake" format with the audience voicing their feelings as much as they want.

I think CNN is going to want to extract their pound of flesh out of Gingrich. They're going to have to be smart about it, which really worries me because I don't think they're that smart.

To the extent Romney or Romney's supporters have gone after Gingrich on his Reagan bona fides, I think it was a huge mistake. I have a suspicion that this will be the focus of the debates tonight. Romney claimed in 1994 to be a registered independent in the 80s and said he opposed the Reagan agenda. If the debate turns on this point, Romney will lose badly. Gingrich has so many other weak points, to go after him on the extent of his support for Reagan is a horrible idea.

[oxcoug]

To the extent Romney or Romney's supporters have gone after Gingrich on his Reagan bona fides, I think it was a huge mistake. I have a suspicion that this will be the focus of the debates tonight. Romney claimed in 1994 to be a registered independent in the 80s and said he opposed the Reagan agenda. If the debate turns on this point, Romney will lose badly. Gingrich has so many other weak points, to go after him on the extent of his support for Reagan is a horrible idea.

I'm not sure - it's tricky terrain, to be certain, but most semi-informed voters have already heard ad nauseum from Newties and others abt how Mitt disavowed Reaganism - but Mitt hasn't been out there claiming to be Reagan's only-begotten. If Romney's people are smart he'll have a ready line for this attack like: "I have always respected the legacy of Ronald Reagan and his courageous foreign policy in the 1980s - you, on the other hand, called it "pathetic" and wrote in 1986 "the Reagan administration has failed, President Reagan has failed and you said this while he was the national leader of the Republican Party."

I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to find out that Romney wasn't a hard core Reagan guy- they will be surprised to know that Newt was that viciously insulting toward Reagan and the net result will be knock Newt off of his Reagan-Heir pedestal.

But... it cld also go badly if Mitt doesn't nail it just right.

[YOhio]

But... it cld also go badly if Mitt doesn't nail it just right.

This is my biggest concern with Mitt carpet bombing Newt. His camp can put out a devastating mailer, video or website, but when Mitt tries to do it at a debate he shrivels and looks weak. He was a little better in this past debate, but it was still somewhat was forced and uncomfortable. And this is all after Mitt publicly expressed regret at going after Newt in Iowa.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I'm not sure - it's tricky terrain, to be certain, but most semi-informed voters have already heard ad nauseum from Newties and others abt how Mitt disavowed Reaganism - but Mitt hasn't been out there claiming to be Reagan's only-begotten. If Romney's people are smart he'll have a ready line for this attack like: "I have always respected the legacy of Ronald Reagan and his courageous foreign policy in the 1980s - you, on the other hand, called it "pathetic" and wrote in 1986 "the Reagan administration has failed, President Reagan has failed and you said this while he was the national leader of the Republican Party."

I don't think anyone is going to be surprised to find out that Romney wasn't a hard core Reagan guy- they will be surprised to know that Newt was that viciously insulting toward Reagan and the net result will be knock Newt off of his Reagan-Heir pedestal.

But... it cld also go badly if Mitt doesn't nail it just right.

I know that clip is out there but I'm not sure if all of the run of the mill primary voters have seen that. Again, I think Romney loses on that one. Romney ran on his Bain experience and Gingrich attacked him on it and that led to Romney's biggest leads of the primary. The weird confluence of the Ricci Lake debates and Romney's squishiness on his taxes and defending himself led to the South Carolina result. I'm not a big believer in the strength of attacking someone on an aspect of their record that also happens to be a pretty big weakness of your own.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

This is my biggest concern with Mitt carpet bombing Newt. His camp can put out a devastating mailer, video or website, but when Mitt tries to do it at a debate he shrivels and looks weak. He was a little better in this past debate, but it was still somewhat was forced and uncomfortable. And this is all after Mitt publicly expressed regret at going after Newt in Iowa.

It doesn't matter how forced it is with him, he needs to continue it in this debate. I am worried about the Ricci Lake wildcard though, if Newt has a "pious baloney" counterattack it could be rough. But I think looking weak throughout the debate would be even worse.

[YOhio]

It doesn't matter how forced it is with him, he needs to continue it in this debate. I am worried about the Ricci Lake wildcard though, if Newt has a "pious baloney" counterattack it could be rough. But I think looking weak throughout the debate would be even worse.

When Newt starts complaining about the negative campaigning, Romney also needs to show some righteous indignation about being called a liar (by Newt himself) and having his entire career in the private sector distorted by Newt's SuperPAC. Doubtful he'll be able to pull it off, though.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I don't understand how certain of Gingrich's attack ads don't blow up in his face. He's making hay out of Romney's effective tax rate, but under Gingrich's tax plan, Romney's rate would be less than 1%. And he's also pointing that while he (Newt) was balancing the budget and doing wonderful things in Washington in the '90s, Romney was making boatloads of money in the private sector (quelle horreur!). And yet Gingrich is trumpeting that he's not a D.C. insider? Every dollar he has earned in the last three decades was received because he is a D.C. insider.

I wish I liked Romney more, because this would be a fun campaign to get involved with.

[SeattleUte]

Why isn't he done because he was sanctioned by the House? I don't get that.

[Green Monstah]

This is my biggest concern with Mitt carpet bombing Newt. His camp can put out a devastating mailer, video or website, but when Mitt tries to do it at a debate he shrivels and looks weak. He was a little better in this past debate, but it was still somewhat was forced and uncomfortable. And this is all after Mitt publicly expressed regret at going after Newt in Iowa.

The rules of engagement have clearly changed since then.

[Eddie]

Why isn't he done because he was sanctioned by the House? I don't get that.

Yeah. Actually, I think this says a lot about Romney's chances in the general election.

The fact that Newt is still a viable candidate and is making a run is incredible to me.

I mean, in spite of all of the crap he has stepped in and is still stuck to the bottom of his shoe people are still inviting him into their homes. The stink doesn't go away, but folks are convincing themselves that the smell isn't that bad.

[YOhio]

The rules of engagement have clearly changed since then.

He said it last Thursday.

[Flystripper]

Why isn't he done because he was sanctioned by the House? I don't get that.

I too have wondered this and it is baffling. Even if the sanctions didn't prevent him from technically running for offfice, I am still shocked that he can even get out of the gates in this race with his nearly unprecedented ethics violations.

[Viking]

This is my biggest concern with Mitt carpet bombing Newt. His camp can put out a devastating mailer, video or website, but when Mitt tries to do it at a debate he shrivels and looks weak. He was a little better in this past debate, but it was still somewhat was forced and uncomfortable. And this is all after Mitt publicly expressed regret at going after Newt in Iowa.

Reminds me of some people here.

[oxcoug]

Yeah. Actually, I think this says a lot about Romney's chances in the general election.

The fact that Newt is still a viable candidate and is making a run is incredible to me.

I mean, in spite of all of the crap he has stepped in and is still stuck to the bottom of his shoe people are still inviting him into their homes. The stink doesn't go away, but folks are convincing themselves that the smell isn't that bad.

We don't like to believe it but the reason Newt is still viable is bc 70% of SC voters were Evangelicals who overwhelmingly voted against Romney - that (combined w/ Mitt's fumbling responses on his taxes and the Jerry Springer debate formats) created a perfect storm where Gingrich was able to resurrect himself.

He said it last Thursday.

I'm not going to say that this isn't a problem at all - but I think it might be overstated. I interpreted Romney's comments as "I wish that the dynamic of this campaign were such that it was possible to remain positive" but it was a conditional / hypothetical. I just don't think people are going to think about it that hard though - he got asked the question in the last debate and he answered it.

[Flystripper]

I'm not going to say that this isn't a problem at all - but I think it might be overstated. I interpreted Romney's comments as "I wish that the dynamic of this campaign were such that it was possible to remain positive" but it was a conditional / hypothetical. I just don't think people are going to think about it that hard though - he got asked the question in the last debate and he answered it.

I don't think negative ads are problem. The supporters of a candidate dislike negative adds aimed at their guy, while liking the negative adds directed at the other guy. I doubt the undecideds dislike negative ads strongly enough to outweigh the message of the add. Basically this is the way that modern day politics operates and the voters expect it even as both sides cry foul in every election.