Syria

[USUC]

Rebels have taken Homs. How many days does Assad have left? Russia focusing on Ukraine and Iran focusing on Israel left Assad vulnerable.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syria-rebels-celebrate-captured-homs-set-sights-damascus-2024-12-07/

The repercussions of this could go a number of ways. It's my understanding that the largest faction of the rebels are backed by Turkey. Erdogan has some nationalist tendencies and spangled some neo Ottoman empire aspirations. I also think these revels are on the islamist side of things. I don't think Assad falling necessarily means the alternative is better for our interests.

[Bo Diddley]

The repercussions of this could go a number of ways. It's my understanding that the largest faction of the rebels are backed by Turkey. Erdogan has some nationalist tendencies and spangled some neo Ottoman empire aspirations. I also think these revels are on the islamist side of things. I don't think Assad falling necessarily means the alternative is better for our interests.

Difficult to predict how things will go. The Arab Spring has been bloody and chaotic.

One thing I know. A multipolar world is marked by changing alliances and turbulence. Under the current regime, Russia and Iran have an ally in Assad. Changing that is a great start.

[BigFatMeanie]

Assad and his benefactor states are terrible. The Islamist rebels are also terrible. Syria is a lose/lose situation.

[frank ryan]

Assad and his benefactor states are terrible. The Islamist rebels are also terrible. Syria is a lose/lose situation.

Assad's opposition is not one dimensional. Not all of the rebels are Islamists. Some of those forces are Kurdish

[USUC]

Assad's opposition is not one dimensional. Not all of the rebels are Islamists. Some of those forces are Kurdish

Which will then come under fire once Assad is deposed. Erdogan will turn those forces against the Kurds.

[frank ryan]

Which will then come under fire once Assad is deposed. Erdogan will turn those forces against the Kurds.

Yeah, it's not the end of the mess for sure. I am no fan of Erdogan (he is a terrible human being), and our abandoning the Kurds to his whims was disgraceful of Trump. Erdogan has played footsies with ISIS. Letting them cross the border, pass arms through etc. He is part of the problem.

Not all of the reformists are Kurds though.

Somewhat unrelated but Turkey has been amping up their influence foot print around the world. Increasing military presence and bases in foreign nations.

[USUC]

Yeah, it's not the end of the mess for sure. I am no fan of Erdogan (he is a terrible human being), and our abandoning the Kurds to his whims was disgraceful of Trump. Erdogan has played footsies with ISIS. Letting them cross the border, pass arms through etc. He is part of the problem.

Not all of the reformists are Kurds though.

Somewhat unrelated but Turkey has been amping up their influence foot print around the world. Increasing military presence and bases in foreign nations.

The treatment of the Kurds by everyone is shameful. The only potentially positive thing of Syria being carved up is a potential Kurdistan. But you are right, Trump will never provide aid for auch a thing.

Turkey nationalism is interesting. Erdogan is not a great leader in the sense of providing the best for the people of the country. I flatiron is out of control. But nationalism and flirting with recreating a remnant of the Ottoman empire appeases the masses apparently.

[frank ryan]

This is a pretty interesting video on the complexities of it all

[Pelado]

This is a pretty interesting video on the complexities of it all

Thanks.

[Maximus]

So ex al Qaeda as main group along with kurds and fhsn Turkish groups who hate and fight kurds

Hmm how will this work

[Maximus]

not sure the moral war justification of striking a country preemptively

[falafel]

not sure the moral war justification of striking a country preemptively

mind providing some context? we don't all get to follow all the news all the time.

[Maximus]

mind providing some context? we don't all get to follow all the news all the time.

israel preemptively taking over syria territory and bombing basically their entire army or navy equipment

[myboynoah]

israel preemptively taking over syria territory and bombing basically their entire army or navy equipment

I just don't see that as a bad thing. Better to destroy the equipment than it fall into the hands of the rebels, hezbollah, the russians, or any other bad actors. They took territory for security reasons and to hinder Iranian shipments to hezbollah. Makes sense.