Richard Posner argues that we're in a depression.

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  • Color Me Badd Fan
    Senior Member
    • Jan 2009
    • 12523

    #1

    Richard Posner argues that we're in a depression.

    http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/9...s-entitlements

    For those outside the legal community, Richard Posner is an appeals judge on the 7th Circuit. He's an incredibly prolific and influential judge for the conservative side of the law (though not a straight line conservative by any means).

    He has a column in The New Republic regarding the economy. It's an informative read.

    But there's a link to a more interesting article about the stimulus written by Posner.

    http://www.tnr.com/article/economy/7...osner?page=0,2

    I've written some similar thoughts on the uselessness of the particular stimulus that Obama and the Democrats passed. Posner argues both for the need of a stimulus in the circumstances we found ourselves in in late 08 and early 09, but he argues at the end the following:

    Instead about two-thirds of the stimulus money consists of transfer payments, such as unemployment benefits, other welfare payments, and tax credits. Transfer payments are trickle-down stimulus. The hope is that the recipients will spend the money on goods and services, thus stimulating production. But suppose that instead they save the money and lend it back to the government by depositing it in a bank that buys Treasury securities with its deposits, so that the money passes in a circle from the Treasury to the Treasury. No stimulus there. Or suppose they use the money to buy goods that are sold out of inventory and the seller prefers to draw down his existing inventory rather than restock it with new purchases from his suppliers; then the additional purchases by recipients of stimulus funds do not stimulate new production. Even a stimulus measure favored by most economists—an investment tax credit—is not a sure thing. The tax credit that a business could obtain by making a new investment may not be large enough to overcome uncertainty over whether the investment can be recouped; and then the business will forgo the credit rather than invest.
    I honestly can't distinguish the difference between the effect transfer payments (e.g. payments designed to shore up state payrolls and welfare payments) would have the economy as opposed to leaving bags of money in random spots around the country for people to find and spend. Posner argues that the money should have been injected into industry and I agree. I've long thought that Reagan's defense buildup was a form of stimulus in its own right and many different industries benefited in the short and long term as a result of it. I'm sure we enjoy some of these benefits today (e.g. did the defense build up lead to advancements in aviation, GPS, and microprocessors?).

    In contrast, what industries, what developments were derived out of the Obama stimulus money?
    Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”
  • Katy Lied
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2008
    • 9435

    #2
    Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post

    In contrast, what industries, what developments were derived out of the Obama stimulus money?
    Solar panels in China.
    :::snicker:::

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    • NorthwestUteFan
      אלוף
      • Oct 2010
      • 3384

      #3
      Originally posted by Katy Lied View Post
      Solar panels in China.
      :::snicker:::
      It was unbelievable hubris to suggest that all this 'new Green technology' would be built exclusively in the USA.

      Comment

      • Babs
        Not a Lawyer
        • Nov 2008
        • 17128

        #4
        Originally posted by NorthwestUteFan View Post
        It was unbelievable hubris to suggest that all this 'new Green technology' would be built exclusively in the USA.
        Especially considering that the US is obligated by treaty to underwrite green technology manufacturing in other countries.

        Comment

        • Color Me Badd Fan
          Senior Member
          • Jan 2009
          • 12523

          #5
          An article on the banking sector and what should have been done with the likes of BofA and Citibank.

          http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08...xposed-opaque/

          Something like this is what's going to have to happen. Mitt Romney actually suggested something similar for the likes of GM -- the big problem for GM and these banks is that they would have difficulty obtaining debtor in possession financing. What that means is temporary financing that a business obtains while it is going through Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Rather than just throw TARP funds their way, the US government should have extended debtor in possession financing while BofA liquidates all of its shitty assets and spins off different parts of itself in Chapter 11.

          All that the bailouts did was put off the inevitable.
          Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

          Comment

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