The illusion of a serious Arab peace initiative

[oxcoug]

Yesterday there was a CB thread w/ BYUitful making the case that the Arab world had somehow extended the olive branch with the 2002 peace initiative which was then renewed in 2007.

Any close examination of what that proposal makes it clear that (a) it never, ever had a chance and (b) the people who drafted it either posturing or they really don't understand the situation. Posturing seems more likely.

The proposal has two stipulations which are total non-starters for Israel:

1. The full return to pre-1967 borders
2. The right of return for Palestinians who lost property in 1947, 1948 and 1967.

Some of the other items - returning all of the West Bank and Gaza and backing out of East Jerusalem - MIGHT be negotiable, but are also problematic.

The real sticking point on the 1967 borders is the Golan - Israel had to take it in the first place because the Syrians and their allies were using it to shell the northern third of Israel. The Golan Heights in Syria's hands essentially renders Israel helpless - at the mercy of whatever militants might seize power in Syria, or whatever tyrant decides to sedate his own population by strafing Israeli civilians.

Given the instability in Lebanon and Syria there is simply no way Israel can or should hand the Golan Heights back.

On the second item - right of return - total non-starter. As Netanyahu said to Obama "it's not going to happen," and negotiators need to stop pretending that it's a legitimate point of consideration in the peace process. Many if not most wars result in displaced populations. It's never pretty. The German side of family lost valuable property in parts of East Prussia that are now in Lithuania and Poland. Entire Austrian villages were forced to relocate out of Sud Tirol in what is now Northern Italy. There is nothing more Hungarian on the planet than the parts of what is now Northern Romania which are historically the Hungarian heartland of Transylvania.

Aggressors lose land. That's one historically established cost of failed aggression. In 1947 and in 1967 the Arabs nations were the aggressors (even if Israel wisely pre-empted their planned strike in 67 and ended the thing before it started). If the Arab states had accepted the UN establishment of the Rhode-Island-sized state of Israel in 1947 rather than promising to obliterate it then they wld already have everything they're now asking for.

But more importantly - the right of return is a demographic time bomb that would overwhelm and drown Israel as it currently exists. I've spoken w/ Palestinians - including one friend I'm in regular contact with - who are very candid about what the right of return means to many Palestinians and Arabs - it's a demographic Trojan horse. Get the right of return for a critical mass of Palestinians, then reproduce like rabbits, eventually become the majority.

Most Palestinians who lost property just want to go back to where they are from and would peacefully live there - but there are plenty who want a lot more than that and it would become impossible for Israel's security apparatus to keep the ones out who actually intend to do harm.

Any proposal that insists on pre-67 borders and the RoR is little more than posturing for the international community.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Aggressors lose land. That's one historically established cost of failed aggression. In 1947 and in 1967 the Arabs nations were the aggressors (even if Israel wisely pre-empted their planned strike in 67 and ended the thing before it started). If the Arab states had accepted the UN establishment of the Rhode-Island-sized state of Israel in 1947 rather than promising to obliterate it then they wld already have everything they're now asking for.

1947? You mean when the British mandate was signed and Palestinians were driven from homes and property that had been in their families for countless generations, many at gunpoint? Or do you mean 1948 when they tried to regain what they had lost? It's odd how the Israelis are never the aggressors.

Setting aside 1967 for a moment, do you claim that none of the Palestinians have a legitimate RoR?

But more importantly - the right of return is a demographic time bomb that would overwhelm and drown Israel as it currently exists. I've spoken w/ Palestinians - including one friend I'm in regular contact with - who are very candid about what the right of return means to many Palestinians and Arabs - it's a demographic Trojan horse. Get the right of return for a critical mass of Palestinians, then reproduce like rabbits, eventually become the majority.

This is a much more honest assessment. Palestinians are one of the few people that can out-breed the Mormons. Arafat once claimed that the greatest weapon in the conflict is the womb of the Palestinian woman.

[LA Ute]

1947? You mean when the British mandate was signed and Palestinians were driven from homes and property that had been in their families for countless generations, many at gunpoint? Or do you mean 1948 when they tried to regain what they had lost?

Are you saying that when every surrounding Arab nation attacked Israel in 1948 their primary objective was to restore lost property to Palestinians? I thought they were trying to eradicate the new Jewish state about 3 years after the Holocaust ended.

[oxcoug]

1947? You mean when the British mandate was signed and Palestinians were driven from homes and property that had been in their families for countless generations, many at gunpoint? Or do you mean 1948 when they tried to regain what they had lost?

The blockade of Jerusalem and general hostilities begin in Dec 1947 though it's months before the Arab states get involved. Also, you might be confusing the 1922 British Mandate w/ the UN Partition Plan of 1947.

Setting aside 1967 for a moment, do you claim that none of the Palestinians have a legitimate RoR?

Sure they should. And my family should have RoR to my grandparents'/great-grandparents' stolen properties in Danzig (Gdansk) and Konigsberg (Kaliningrad). But the justice of those individual claims doesn't square with the political reality.

1947? You mean when the British mandate was signed and Palestinians were driven from homes and property that had been in their families for countless generations, many at gunpoint?

Anecdotally the facts are moving and there were some instances of local Jewish militias doing this stuff - but they are exceptional and are equaled by Arab violence against Jews.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The blockade of Jerusalem and general hostilities begin in Dec 1947 though it's months before the Arab states get involved. Also, you might be confusing the 1922 British Mandate w/ the UN Partition Plan of 1947.

Yes, got my titles mixed up.

Anecdotally the facts are moving and there were some instances of local Jewish militias doing this stuff - but they are exceptional and are equaled by Arab violence against Jews.

Perhaps. I don't claim any superior authority in that regard, but note that there is dispute regarding that claim, even within the Israeli world.

[ame="http://www.amazon.com/Ethnic-Cleansing-Palestine-Ilan-Pappe/dp/1851684670"]Amazon.com: The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine (9781851684670): Ilan Pappe: Books@@AMEPARAM@@http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/510G4RY7PSL.@@AMEPARAM@@510G4RY7PSL[/ame]

[Viking]

Israel belongs to God's people. It has for millenia.

[oxcoug]

Yes, got my titles mixed up.



Perhaps. I don't claim any superior authority in that regard, but note that there is dispute regarding that claim, even within the Israeli world.

Amazon.com: The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine (9781851684670): Ilan Pappe: Books

Yeah - Pappe has a bit of a rep as a pro-Palestinian polemicist and self-hating Israeli. Becoming the most controversial anti-Israeli Israeli academic did prove to be a nifty way of rescuing an academic career that was on the rocks after he got chased out of Haifa University for, among other things, some pretty major research errors.

Aside from gravy-training on the New Historian school of Benny Morris and my old lecturer Avi Shlaim (the groundbreaking Israeli scholars who blazed the path in laying out the critical view of Palestinians as victims) he earned some notoriety for being an Israeli academic who endorsed the absurd British Association of University Teachers boycott of Israeli universities - one of the stupidest, most misguided things in the history of a fairly stupid organization.

I had the good fortune to watch Pappe get taken apart on a panel w/ one of my other former lectures about four years ago. There were three other Israelis on the panel, one of the others being another (more prominent) new Historian and two who were advocates of the more conventional narrative - all three ended up teaming up in shredding his claims, even the one who was nominally on his side of the argument.

Pappe's claims of "cleansing" focus on Plan D adopted by leaders of the Haganah in March of 1948 as part of preparations for the onset of open warfare between Arabs and Jews in Palestine that the Arabs themselves were promising would follow a declaration of statehood. Even leading New Historian Benny Morris describes it as "a blueprint for securing the emergent Jewish state and the blocs of settlements outside the state's territory against the expected invasion on or after 15 May" while recognizing that "Plan D was not a political blueprint for the expulsion of Palestine's Arabs."

Pappe pulls Israeli intelligence surveys of Palestinian villages way out of context as one centerpiece of his evidence and tries to make the argument that the detailed male headcounts were the basis of a plan for ethnic cleansing. This is a huge leap that is made w/o evidence.

[wuapinmon]

What gets me is how much an insignificant speck of a country can cause such problems in the world.

ox, am I wrong in saying that prior to 1900 Palestinians were called "Syrians?"

[Guest]

What gets me is how much an insignificant speck of a country can cause such problems in the world.

ox, am I wrong in saying that prior to 1900 Palestinians were called "Syrians?"

And why isn't Jordan considered the Palestinian state? 75% of Jordan is Palestinian already.

[Eddie]

I tend to agree with the concept that when there is a war, there are winners and losers. And the winners and losers aren't just the competing governments, they are also everyone living within the geographic area within which the war takes place.

I find the idea that Israel should have to return the Golan Heights and West Bank in some ways humorous. In all honesty, everytime these conversations come up, I remember an incident from several years ago with my nephew.

I have a nephew who was taught by his parents that when he had had enough wrestling, tickling, or whatever - he should simply say "I've had enough". And whoever is playing with him will then let him go. Sounds fair enough, right?

One day I was sitting on the floor and he kept running and jumping on my back. That's fine, we played around for a little while. After about an hour of this, I asked him to stop. He did...for about 30 seconds. When he jumped on me again I just held him in my lap. After a couple of minutes he said "I've had enough", and I let him go.

He slowly walked across the room, then came running back and jumped on me again. So I again held him in my lap. He said "I've had enough" a couple of times, I told him "I've had enough too", and then I let him go.

Once again he walked across the room, and then came running back to jump on me. So I held him in my lap. He cried out "I've had enough" several times, but this time I didn't let him go. His parents got a little indignant with me, "he says he's had enough!" they said. "I've had enough too", I replied.

I know this is a pretty simplistic comparison. I don't think Israel has done everything right. I don't think Palestinians have done everything wrong. But it seems to me that more often than not, people are asking Israel to give the Palestinians the means to harm them.

Israel comes across as the big strong adult with sophisticated weapons and the ability to really put the hurt on, though they rarely hit with everything they've got.

Palestinians come across as the poor defenseless child who is being picked by the big strong adult - no one seems to care that the child keeps poking the adult with a stick and the adult is bleeding in several places. They are very concerned about the spanking that the adult administers.

They expect the adult to be mature and understanding. They tell the adult that if he stops spanking the child, the child won't get mad and retaliate. But there seem to be very few expectations for the child. It is up to the adult to fix the relationship and make the child happy.

Now - I say this with the understanding that I have biases. I haven't done any in depth study of the issues, though I like to think that I have read more than the "average" american. I also realize that I am biased by primarily the US based media.

[wuapinmon]

I tend to agree with the concept that when there is a war, there are winners and losers. And the winners and losers aren't just the competing governments, they are also everyone living within the geographic area within which the war takes place.

I find the idea that Israel should have to return the Golan Heights and West Bank in some ways humorous. In all honesty, everytime these conversations come up, I remember an incident from several years ago with my nephew.

I have a nephew who was taught by his parents that when he had had enough wrestling, tickling, or whatever - he should simply say "I've had enough". And whoever is playing with him will then let him go. Sounds fair enough, right?

One day I was sitting on the floor and he kept running and jumping on my back. That's fine, we played around for a little while. After about an hour of this, I asked him to stop. He did...for about 30 seconds. When he jumped on me again I just held him in my lap. After a couple of minutes he said "I've had enough", and I let him go.

He slowly walked across the room, then came running back and jumped on me again. So I again held him in my lap. He said "I've had enough" a couple of times, I told him "I've had enough too", and then I let him go.

Once again he walked across the room, and then came running back to jump on me. So I held him in my lap. He cried out "I've had enough" several times, but this time I didn't let him go. His parents got a little indignant with me, "he says he's had enough!" they said. "I've had enough too", I replied.

I know this is a pretty simplistic comparison. I don't think Israel has done everything right. I don't think Palestinians have done everything wrong. But it seems to me that more often than not, people are asking Israel to give the Palestinians the means to harm them.

Israel comes across as the big strong adult with sophisticated weapons and the ability to really put the hurt on, though they rarely hit with everything they've got.

Palestinians come across as the poor defenseless child who is being picked by the big strong adult - no one seems to care that the child keeps poking the adult with a stick and the adult is bleeding in several places. They are very concerned about the spanking that the adult administers.

They expect the adult to be mature and understanding. They tell the adult that if he stops spanking the child, the child won't get mad and retaliate. But there seem to be very few expectations for the child. It is up to the adult to fix the relationship and make the child happy.

Now - I say this with the understanding that I have biases. I haven't done any in depth study of the issues, though I like to think that I have read more than the "average" american. I also realize that I am biased by primarily the US based media.

Wow! That's a seriously flawed comparison. Not even remotely comparable.

[Eddie]

Wow! That's a seriously flawed comparison. Not even remotely comparable.

Well - I did say that was just my perception based on media bias and not a lot of in-depth study.

What's the best book/article/etc. out there that takes an unbiased perspective of the issues if I were interested in educating myself?

[wuapinmon]

Well - I did say that was just my perception based on media bias and not a lot of in-depth study.

What's the best book/article/etc. out there that takes an unbiased perspective of the issues if I were interested in educating myself?

I can't speak to that, as it's not my field, but I have been following the situation for the last 10 years. I've read a lot of articles, and research the history of the region. Perhaps someone else can comment, but the apartheid that the Israelis are currently practicing is not akin to "I've had enough."

I'm neither pro-Palestinian or pro-Israeli. If they were my children, I'd spank the hell out of them, send them to bed without dinner, and then ground them forever. That we expend so much energy on two people with common ancestry who can't get along, in such an insignificant speck of land that matters not a bit in the global economy is beyond me.

I hate the whole situation. They're both wrong, they've both done heinous things, but Israel is now crossing over into human rights abuses that do not justify the ends.

[Eddie]

...
I'm neither pro-Palestinian or pro-Israeli. If they were my children, I'd spank the hell out of them, send them to bed without dinner, and then ground them forever. That we expend so much energy on two people with common ancestry who can't get along, in such an insignificant speck of land that matters not a bit in the global economy is beyond me.

I hate the whole situation. They're both wrong, they've both done heinous things, but Israel is now crossing over into human rights abuses that do not justify the ends.

Honestly, this makes the most sense to me and probably most closely resembles how I feel.

What differs is simply that in my perspective - if they were both my children it seems like Israel is treated like the older child who should know better than to continue fighting with the younger (smaller, weaker) sibling. And Palestine is viewed as the younger sibling who just keeps pushing the older siblings buttons and escalating things - resulting in the older sibling over-reacting. For which the younger sibling then wants to "get even". And the cycle just continues...

[il Padrino Ute]

Wow! That's a seriously flawed comparison. Not even remotely comparable.

Why don't you give us a better comparison that isn't flawed?