Russia and China are watching America Fall

[frank ryan]

This is an interesting clip from Sarah Paine who used to teach at the US Naval War College. I've seen a bunch of her clips on Youtube and found her stuff interesting. This is a pretty sobering clip, but worth a watch.

[YOhio]

Interesting video, frank. There's a lot there, but I think the title of the video is a bit misleading. It seems like her primary point is that Europe is watching China, Russia, and America fall. She does this by comparing weaknesses and policy blunders of Russia, China, and America with an incredibly optimistic view of Europe's strengths.
I'm just not buying the idea that Europe is the adult in the room. Sure they have institutional cooperation. They also have massive bureaucracy that's choked out industrial innovation and led to energy dependance. They're not much of a participant in the AI arms race. Their native Military Industrial Complex is hyper-reliant on the US. They're facing permanent population decline and cultural polarization due to mass migration. The US has control of who their strongest company (ASML) can sell to. They have some major challenges of their own making.
I say this not to minimize the mistakes and issues we have in America. Rather to point out that the US is not unique in that poor leadership, bad policy, and corruption have led to potentially bad outcomes. All things considered, I wouldn't swap problems with Europe, China, or Russia.

[YOhio]

Here's an interesting substack on the China-US rivalry.

Did China Culminate and No One Noticed?

The United States has a habit of watching its rivals shrink. The Soviet Union collapsed. Japan, which was supposed to own America in the 1980s, is now a far smaller economy. China looks set to follow.

In 2021 China's GDP reached 76 percent of American GDP, and the consensus was that it would pass the US before 2030. That consensus has collapsed. By 2024 the US economy was 29.2 trillion dollars against China's 18.9 trillion, a gap that has widened for three straight years. China's working-age population is shrinking. Its fertility rate has fallen to roughly 1.0, half of replacement. There is no immigration to compensate.

Yet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing.

[frank ryan]

Thanks for taking the time to watch that YO

[Jeff Lebowski]

Here's an interesting substack on the China-US rivalry.

Did China Culminate and No One Noticed?

Yeah, I have been seeing that graph a lot. But that analysis seems oversimplistic. Our resilience is more complicated than "Americans hate to lose".

Chinese birthrate = 1.0. Brutal. Population decline is coming for us all eventually. We have cut off immigration (dumb) and even in Latin America the birthrates are dropping like a rock. Good luck to the next generation or two.

[YOhio]

Yeah, I have been seeing that graph a lot. But that analysis seems oversimplistic. Our resilience is more complicated than "Americans hate to lose".

Chinese birthrate = 1.0. Brutal. Population decline is coming for us all eventually. We have cut off immigration (dumb) and even in Latin America the birthrates are dropping like a rock. Good luck to the next generation or two.

That's a great point. I've wondered if population decline will ever lead to the Pro-Life movement attempting to ban abortion for purposes of public health.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I hadn't read or listened to Sarah Paine before (my initial skim read of Frank's OP was "Sarah Palin"--no thanks!) and found it interesting. She's certainly right about Trump whose only strategy, if one can call it that, is acquisitiveness. Trump would be content to let Taiwan and Ukraine fall to their respective would-be overlords if it somehow meant he could have Greenland and Cuba, and then keep slapping his name on anything that doesn't move.

[Pelado]

I hadn't read or listened to Sarah Paine before (my initial skim read of Frank's OP was "Sarah Palin"--no thanks!) and found it interesting. She's certainly right about Trump whose only strategy, if one can call it that, is acquisitiveness. Trump would be content to let Taiwan and Ukraine fall to their respective would-be overlords if it somehow meant he could have Greenland and Cuba, and then keep slapping his name on anything that doesn't move.

Fify

[PaloAltoCougar]

Fify

Fair

[YOhio]

China’s youth jobless rate at 16.9%.

[frank ryan]

That's a great point. I've wondered if population decline will ever lead to the Pro-Life movement attempting to ban abortion for purposes of public health.

I think that's part of where those techno-dictators like Alex Karp (who wants to bring back the draft) and Peter Thiel want to go, and why AI Vance is shaming people who don't have kids.

Population decline is real problem and our terrible immigration policies will make it more pressing.

[frank ryan]

I think there is a strong case that under MAGA, the US is not the most adult in the room when it comes to that group.