F-35 costs double in 10 years

[Bo Diddley]

I don't care about Elon Musks' politics, wealth, breeding, video gaming, or whatever. I accept that he's a weirdo and don't care.

The dude understands how to do things at scale.

[PaloAltoCougar]

That's a thoughtful post with which, overall, I agree, YO. To underscore one of your points, I'll mention again two observations during our recent trip to China. I loved their high speed rail--speed, comfort, convenience, and at a good price. China has vastly increased its high speed rail system in just the past fifteen years to more than 30,000 miles. Meanwhile, California has been working on high speed rail for more than twenty years, has spent tens of billions of dollars on it, and so far, has essentially nothing to show for it. It's a case of an autocratic government being able to dictate when and where something will be built, NOW!, versus a democratic government in which everyone with any interest in the construction has a voice that must be heard. In the time it takes to put together an environmental impart report China will have laid hundreds of miles of HSR track.

Second, next to Shanghai is an island that from the air appears to contain only thousands of containers and loading and offloading derricks. On the entire vast island there may be a couple of dozen workers--it's all automated, and moves cargo much, much faster and much more cheaply than any U.S. port. Meanwhile, Trump, who assures he knows everything there is to know about automation, is pushing to stop attempts to automate our ports in favor of keeping more jobs. Idiotic and very damaging to U.S. competitiveness.

[YOhio]

That's a thoughtful post with which, overall, I agree, YO. To underscore one of your points, I'll mention again two observations during our recent trip to China. I loved their high speed rail--speed, comfort, convenience, and at a good price. China has vastly increased its high speed rail system in just the past fifteen years to more than 30,000 miles. Meanwhile, California has been working on high speed rail for more than twenty years, has spent tens of billions of dollars on it, and so far, has essentially nothing to show for it. It's a case of an autocratic government being able to dictate when and where something will be built, NOW!, versus a democratic government in which everyone with any interest in the construction has a voice that must be heard. In the time it takes to put together an environmental impart report China will have laid hundreds of miles of HSR track.

Second, next to Shanghai is an island that from the air appears to contain only thousands of containers and loading and offloading derricks. On the entire vast island there may be a couple of dozen workers--it's all automated, and moves cargo much, much faster and much more cheaply than any U.S. port. Meanwhile, Trump, who assures he knows everything there is to know about automation, is pushing to stop attempts to automate our ports in favor of keeping more jobs. Idiotic and very damaging to U.S. competitiveness.

It's infuriating. One of the biggest criticisms I have of Trump/Vance is that their labor policy is essentially that of a 1980's Democrat. The Teamsters do a great job representing their constituents, but a horrible job advancing American interests. The opportunity cost goes well beyond the ports. By restricting port automation, we stifle industry growth, lose industry knowledge and advancement that could be gained in the process.

This impacts all other domestic industries that could benefit from automation, including the military. One example. In 2022 the Air Force recently released new doctrine regarding force posture called Agile Combat Employment. This doctrine relies heavily on rapid logistics capabilities in what they call a 'hub and spoke' model, relying on strategic bases for asset distribution to remote and austere base locations (i.e., Pacific islands). This strategy needs advanced automated systems to reach maximum effectiveness, while at the same time we're stifling the industry. Total self-own.

[frank ryan]

We're currently in a Cold War style race with China to establish military technological superiority in space, air, sea, and autonomy. They're winning in autonomy, pulling even in air, rapidly advancing in sea, and making huge advancements in space. They're transitioning from a copycat tech culture to one of homegrown innovation with an infrastructure that is significantly more suitable to move from rapid prototype, iteration, testing, manufacturing, and scaling than ours. Their government understands the need to embrace/co-opt the commercial sector and remove red tape when required. As a result they're undergoing what is likely to be the greatest military modernization in world history.

To compete with that, I firmly believe that we need to modify our current approach at the macro and micro level. At the macro level this means embracing builders. People who understand how to build things at scale are exceedingly rare. They can also be weird, offensive, and hold beliefs I don't subscribe to. I can't stress enough how little I care about those things. I don't care about Peter Thiel's mentors or plans to build a libertarian island. I care about how he and others leveraged PayPal fraud identification techniques to build Palantir, the most effective analytics tools in the Western arsenal. I don't care about Palmer Luckey's disastrous stint at Facebook or that Matt Gaetz married his sister. I care that he's twice built hardware unicorns. The second of which, Anduril, has moved from a startup to multiple DoD Programs of Record within a decade and within that period of time developed breakthrough autonomous and reusable weapons systems. I don't care about Elon Musks' politics, wealth, breeding, video gaming, or whatever. I accept that he's a weirdo and don't care. Because with that we get someone who has created new industries and advanced American capabilities in battery technology, advanced manufacturing, electric transportation, neural interfaces, propulsion, rockets, reusable launch systems, satellite communication, autonomy, sensors, and so on. The transformational capabilities brought by builders far outweigh the negative aspects of their personal politics.

This isn't new thinking. We used Nazi's to build our space program and win the space race. One of the inventors of the transistor and semiconductor was a eugenicist. Our auto-industry was built by a notorious anti-semite. So many American advancements have come from people who, at some level and to varying degrees, don't fully embrace what we now view as common values. Historically we've accepted that. Right now it appears that Republicans will embrace the big tent approach in order to win. Democrats want to purity test, which I think is a losing strategy for both America and at the ballot box.

One thought about your point regarding Musk's influence. Sure he has outsized influence, but that's not uncommon from wealthy political donors. In fact, I'd strongly prefer that Trump be influenced by the pro-growth Musk wing over the nationalist Bannon-wing. But I appreciate the transparency. At least we know who is pulling the strings. For the past few years we've been lied to about the capacity of our current president. We now know that his deteriorating condition was apparent within the first few months of his taking office and everyone in the administration, including Kamala Harris, lied to us. We don't know who has been or is currently making decisions in the Oval Office. So spare me the Democrat indignation over unelected people influencing the president.

I get it. You aren't open to changing your mind. I have a hard time taking complaints about Harris not being honest about Biden's faculties seriously, when Trump's mountains of dishonesty are constantly tolerated, if not embraced, and legitimized, by conservatives.
The project paperclip scientists who helped with rockets and things like that weren't trying to craft social and political doctrine and influence and they didn't weird the financial power of Peter Thiel or Musk.

The threat from China needs to be linked to Russia. Trump is a bitch when it comes to Russia and his cabinet will be too.

[YOhio]

I get it. You aren't open to changing your mind. I have a hard time taking complaints about Harris not being honest about Biden's faculties seriously, when Trump's mountains of dishonesty are constantly tolerated, if not embraced, and legitimized, by conservatives.
The project paperclip scientists who helped with rockets and things like that weren't trying to craft social and political doctrine and influence and they didn't weird the financial power of Peter Thiel or Musk.

The threat from China needs to be linked to Russia. Trump is a bitch when it comes to Russia and his cabinet will be too.

To the contrary, I’m as open to changing my mind as anyone on this board. I’ve never cast a straight party ballot and haven’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 2012. I was an avid Never-Trumper and now support him on specific issues and oppose on others. For that alone I’ve been ridiculed and insulted on this board, but I try not to respond in kind. I try to be thoughtful and substantive, even when the response is inevitably ‘that’s a dumb idea.’

I agree about Trump’s dishonesty, but disagree that it justifies Harris and others lying about Biden. It should infuriate all democrats, if only for the fact that it created conditions for Trump to win. But we’re entitled to know who is calling the shots and they’re obligated to be truthful.

But your point about Operation Paperclip is a good one, at least as far as my understanding of it. But Musk and Thiel do have first amendment rights the same as any other citizen, so unless they’re in violation of the law I don’t think they’re doing anything wrong.

[frank ryan]

To the contrary, I’m as open to changing my mind as anyone on this board. I’ve never cast a straight party ballot and haven’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 2012. I was an avid Never-Trumper and now support him on specific issues and oppose on others. For that alone I’ve been ridiculed and insulted on this board, but I try not to respond in kind. I try to be thoughtful and substantive, even when the response is inevitably ‘that’s a dumb idea.’

I agree about Trump’s dishonesty, but disagree that it justifies Harris and others lying about Biden. It should infuriate all democrats, if only for the fact that it created conditions for Trump to win. But we’re entitled to know who is calling the shots and they’re obligated to be truthful.

But your point about Operation Paperclip is a good one, at least as far as my understanding of it. But Musk and Thiel do have first amendment rights the same as any other citizen, so unless they’re in violation of the law I don’t think they’re doing anything wrong.

At the crux of my energy around Trump is I feel after J6 everyone should be a never Trumper. I don't think anything Biden or Harris has done comes close to that and that the damage will be become even more profound when people who tried to overthrow the country violently get pardoned.

I feel like he has done so many scandalous things he just gets a pass. He is surrounded by some pretty rotten opportunists in the right-wing media sphere.

I love you but I'm constantly told I'm worried about sky falling when some of the things I worry go on to happen. I get called irrational when I try and share reasons for my opinion, not just drive by tweets (you don't do that).

I don't think you are dumb - at all. I don't think I'm uneducated or reactive.

That there is some goodness in Trump's inner circle that will win the day.

On Greenland, I think it is a poor idea for Trump to talk about buying a nation that doesn't want to be bought. They have a right to self-determination and I think his talk of it shouldn't given much energy. Just like his talk of invading Mexico. I think Trump will say things and then people will scrabble to make sense of it, when in reality he never thought it through in the first place.

Musk and Thiel have first amendment rights but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be scrutinized. I mean I've heard all about George Soros for the last twenty years, and his name was never floated as a potential speaker of the House.

I think it is quite possible Musk is compromised. His phone calls to Putin called up by his dramatic shift on Ukraine. Musk antics on twitter/x where he fucked around with people who thought they were registering to vote alone is scummy.

I think some of our differences reflect your better nature your finding hope and normalcy where I just don't see it. Anyway it saddens me to know I made you feel. Culture and dialogue is really mean right now and I don't want to contribute to it

[frank ryan]

hmm how much will the offer be?

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This sort of sums it all up. You can count on Trump putting his interests over the country's every-time.

The risk is heightened when you realize he hasn't always done well at advancing his interests but what is rather great at is avoiding the consequences of his failures

[YOhio]

Anduril announced yesterday that they're investing almost $1B for a 5M sq ft manufacturing operation in the Columbus area. Really exciting times!

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[YOhio]

Aero India is such a bizarre and awesome air show. Attendees got to see both the Su-57 and F-35 demonstrations within the same hour. Probably the only time these two will share the skies without some real shit going down.

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[YOhio]

This must have been so surreal for the aircrews. Each side has sat through countless classified briefings on the capabilities of the adversary aircraft and now they get to see it live. Pretty cool.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That is cool.

[happyone]

This must have been so surreal for the aircrews. Each side has sat through countless classified briefings on the capabilities of the adversary aircraft and now they get to see it live. Pretty cool.

One of the things I like about living where I live is watching t he F-35s taking off and landing. When they are landing south to north, I am right under the landing pattern.

What a beautiful airplane. Actually over the years I've seen every A/C the AF flies, most of what the Navy flies and even some European AF a/c

It can be noisy, but you get used to it

[YOhio]

One of the things I like about living where I live is watching t he F-35s taking off and landing. When they are landing south to north, I am right under the landing pattern.

What a beautiful airplane. Actually over the years I've seen every A/C the AF flies, most of what the Navy flies and even some European AF a/c

It can be noisy, but you get used to it

That's awesome. A while back I was at Whiteman AFB and saw a B-2 takeoff. It was kind of a spiritual experience, thinking of the brilliant minds that could build that otherworldly craft. The rear profile is so slim that as it ascended I lost sight of it in the horizon. I think I could watch that every day and not get bored.

[YOhio]

Anduril notches another win. Has to be an awesome full circle moment for the founder of Oculus.

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[happyone]

That's awesome. A while back I was at Whiteman AFB and saw a B-2 takeoff. It was kind of a spiritual experience, thinking of the brilliant minds that could build that otherworldly craft. The rear profile is so slim that as it ascended I lost sight of it in the horizon. I think I could watch that every day and not get bored.

The B-2 is an awesome airplane - one flies into Hill at least every other year (for the air show) When it takes off it seems to be crawling, even thought is going 150-200 mph (that goes for every big airplane)

It does remind one of a giant bat