F-35 costs double in 10 years

[YOhio]

Interesting read on a defense contractor in jail for selling secrets to China.

This Brilliant Engineer Helped Build the B-2 Bomber—Then He Sold America’s Secrets to China.

[YOhio]

I’m just treating this as the defense contractor thread. I love Alex Karp.

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[Maximus]

hmm how much will the offer be?

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[YOhio]

Frightening article in The Atlantic. "The Crumbling Foundations of America's Military."

https://apple.news/AdSh9AkqeT46qrY12-dNiQQ

Today’s howitzer round has a variety of parts, each requiring its own production process. The steel casing is made with a specially formulated alloy called HF-1 (the initials stand for “high fragmentation”), designed to withstand the tremendous pressure of being shot out of a cannon but also frangible enough to shatter into shards when it explodes at the target. Most of this kind of steel is imported from Japan and Germany, but some of it also comes from China. Into each steel casing is poured explosive material—what the military calls “energetics”—that today is generally TNT: 24 pounds of it per round. Currently, no TNT is manufactured in the U.S. Nearly all of what we use is imported from Poland and is made with chemical precursors from other countries—including, again, China. To increase U.S. production tenfold would require 2.4 million pounds of TNT monthly, which is why the military is shifting to a newer explosive, IMX, that will ultimately replace TNT entirely, but not anytime soon. The U.S. already has stockpiles of this material, and more of it is being made: The Army has nearly tripled its IMX order from the Holston Army Ammunition Plant, in Tennessee.

[LVAllen]

Frightening article in The Atlantic. "The Crumbling Foundations of America's Military."

https://apple.news/AdSh9AkqeT46qrY12-dNiQQ

Alternative title:

"Why international trade is complicated, and tariffs are stupid"

[Bo Diddley]

Alternative title:

"Why international trade is complicated, and tariffs are stupid"

And outsourcing war fighting supply chain requirements to your adversary.

[YOhio]

Alternative title:

"Why international trade is complicated, and tariffs are stupid"

Tariffs are a tool. Misuse of tariffs is stupid.

[frank ryan]

Frightening article in The Atlantic. "The Crumbling Foundations of America's Military."

https://apple.news/AdSh9AkqeT46qrY12-dNiQQ

A good reason for a president not to insult and disparage treaty allies and threaten our the continuation of multilateral alliances

[YOhio]

A good reason for a president not to insult and disparage treaty allies and threaten our the continuation of multilateral alliances

Agree. And also not single source our entire TNT supply to a country that shares a border with Russia.

The article really is fantastic and highlights the consequences of defense industrial base consolidation after the Cold War. The issues are so deep and entrenched it's difficult to know where to make improvements. It strikes a particular chord with me as I've spent most of my career in the defense sector and it's difficult to adequately describe how painful it is to work with the DoD. From the bias towards primes, hostility towards SMB, accounting requirements, IT requirements, proposal requirements, payment timelines, FAR flowdowns, inconsistent enforcement of regulations, horrible program management, murky procurement process, immovable bureaucracy, constantly changing priorities, and on and on. There have been areas of improvement, but it's always two steps forward one step back. All that to say, I do love it. Totally worth it to be able to work with the greatest and most lethal fighting force the world has ever known.

[LVAllen]

Agree. And also not single source our entire TNT supply to a country that shares a border with Russia.

The article really is fantastic and highlights the consequences of defense industrial base consolidation after the Cold War. The issues are so deep and entrenched it's difficult to know where to make improvements. It strikes a particular chord with me as I've spent most of my career in the defense sector and it's difficult to adequately describe how painful it is to work with the DoD. From the bias towards primes, hostility towards SMB, accounting requirements, IT requirements, proposal requirements, payment timelines, FAR flowdowns, inconsistent enforcement of regulations, horrible program management, murky procurement process, immovable bureaucracy, constantly changing priorities, and on and on. There have been areas of improvement, but it's always two steps forward one step back. All that to say, I do love it. Totally worth it to be able to work with the greatest and most lethal fighting force the world has ever known.

At least for TNT production, looks like the DOD is taking steps to reduce its reliance in imports: a Kentucky manufacturing plant. Although, to be honest, I don't know if the Iowan factory working with the stuff should be more or less nervous that it's coming from there rather than Poland.

https://www.army.mil/article/281247/...tnt_production

[YOhio]

China seems like they'll be the first with the 6th Gen. fighter. Meanwhile the USAF began Next Generation Air Dominance planning in 2014 and expect to field something in the mid-2030's.

https://www.twz.com/air/china-stuns-...den-appearance

[frank ryan]

China seems like they'll be the first with the 6th Gen. fighter. Meanwhile the USAF began Next Generation Air Dominance planning in 2014 and expect to field something in the mid-2030's.

https://www.twz.com/air/china-stuns-...den-appearance

China is kicking our ass in so many ways. It will only get worse'. It will be interesting to see how long the Russia-China alliance holds. Russia has already made some territorial concessions to China.

What's sad is that a few of the major factors that have allowed those awful governments to gain some advantages on the world stage have been because Western values. Despite our reputation for imperialistic and sloppy Cold War bullying of smaller nations, the US and Western European nations have restraints others don't. Ourselves and the French don't back governments that oust democratically elected ones by force. But China and Russia will. As a result there have been several African governments toppled by Wagner assisted military juntas.

Most Americans couldn't name these nations but they are resource rich and it will become a problem.

Trumpist isolationism and his insistence on shit talking our allies will cost us. He is going to shove Panama into the arms of the Chinese. I have Trump for so many reasons but I loathe primarily for how awful his foreign policy and national security liabilities are. I think the far left doesn't quite see that. And frankly I'd share some of the same concerns with the far far left. Minus the part about them Bering compromised by our adversaries

[YOhio]

This is an interesting read. The article struck me as a somewhat negative view of Trump's relationship with tech, the headline framing it as 'right-wing tech brotherhood.' But I see this engagement as absolutely vital to winning the hard power war against China.

There’s a long list of actions that Trump’s tech appointees are expected to tackle, including deregulation of the cryptocurrency industry, fewer constraints on artificial intelligence development, easier environmental approval for projects such as Musk’s SpaceX rocket launches, a shakeup in antitrust enforcement, an overhaul of military procurement and, with congressional approval, low tax rates for corporations and wealthy individuals.

Adam Kovacevich, the CEO of Chamber of Progress, a Democratic tech industry organization, said that despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss to Trump in November, he’s trying to see potential upside for tech overall in part because of who’s advising Trump.

“You have to go into the new administration with optimism,” he said.

“A lot of these people who have supported Trump, they’ve supported Democrats in the past, so we’re not necessarily talking about people who are always in the Republican corner,” he said.

I really appreciate this perspective of Kovacevich. It's refreshing to see a Democrat talk like this. Much better approach than sounding like an Ayn Rand villain every time Musk, Thiel, Andreesen, Luckey or any other Trump supporter with a tech background is mentioned. You may dislike them, but to discount their contribution to American hard power is foolish. Any moonshot effort, whether it be in building Naval capacity, Space capabilities, or NGAD, will require our builders and the insanity that accompanies.

The bolded part is absolutely vital. There was some great momentum during Trump 1.0, mostly driven by Dr. Will Roper, who pushed forward the use of non-traditional contract vehicles and rapid procurement efforts like AFWERX and AF Ventures. Partial credit goes to Obama for the seeding these efforts with DIUX, but they really got momentum under Trump. To put it charitably, these efforts stagnated under Biden. They're still active and operational, just not aspirational. I'm hopeful they get revamped and kickstarted under the new administration.

[frank ryan]

This is an interesting read. The article struck me as a somewhat negative view of Trump's relationship with tech, the headline framing it as 'right-wing tech brotherhood.' But I see this engagement as absolutely vital to winning the hard power war against China.



I really appreciate this perspective of Kovacevich. It's refreshing to see a Democrat talk like this. Much better approach than sounding like an Ayn Rand villain every time Musk, Thiel, Andreesen, Luckey or any other Trump supporter with a tech background is mentioned. You may dislike them, but to discount their contribution to American hard power is foolish. Any moonshot effort, whether it be in building Naval capacity, Space capabilities, or NGAD, will require our builders and the insanity that accompanies.

The bolded part is absolutely vital. There was some great momentum during Trump 1.0, mostly driven by Dr. Will Roper, who pushed forward the use of non-traditional contract vehicles and rapid procurement efforts like AFWERX and AF Ventures. Partial credit goes to Obama for the seeding these efforts with DIUX, but they really got momentum under Trump. To put it charitably, these efforts stagnated under Biden. They're still active and operational, just not aspirational. I'm hopeful they get revamped and kickstarted under the new administration.

These aren't guys who are beyond reproach, especially when their actions have such outsized influence. With Musk, particular, it's short-sited to frame his critics as only partisan democrats. There have been several voices who've sounded the alarm on him. His actions have been strange and he has been exceeding partisan and erratic. What was he been elected or appointed and confirmed to do? Because he is acting like he is in charge of everything. And he is acting like he in charge of nations affairs and concerns. Meanwhile, he publicly admires the far-right Pro-Russian German party.

Being the richest man ever isn't some inherently moral accomplishment or cover from scrutiny. If anything, his ability to influence things, coupled with his actions and words merit a lot more scrutiny.

[YOhio]

These aren't guys who are beyond reproach, especially when their actions have such outsized influence. With Musk, particular, it's short-sited to frame his critics as only partisan democrats. There have been several voices who've sounded the alarm on him. His actions have been strange and he has been exceeding partisan and erratic. What was he been elected or appointed and confirmed to do? Because he is acting like he is in charge of everything. And he is acting like he in charge of nations affairs and concerns. Meanwhile, he publicly admires the far-right Pro-Russian German party.

Being the richest man ever isn't some inherently moral accomplishment or cover from scrutiny. If anything, his ability to influence things, coupled with his actions and words merit a lot more scrutiny.

We're currently in a Cold War style race with China to establish military technological superiority in space, air, sea, and autonomy. They're winning in autonomy, pulling even in air, rapidly advancing in sea, and making huge advancements in space. They're transitioning from a copycat tech culture to one of homegrown innovation with an infrastructure that is significantly more suitable to move from rapid prototype, iteration, testing, manufacturing, and scaling than ours. Their government understands the need to embrace/co-opt the commercial sector and remove red tape when required. As a result they're undergoing what is likely to be the greatest military modernization in world history.

To compete with that, I firmly believe that we need to modify our current approach at the macro and micro level. At the macro level this means embracing builders. People who understand how to build things at scale are exceedingly rare. They can also be weird, offensive, and hold beliefs I don't subscribe to. I can't stress enough how little I care about those things. I don't care about Peter Thiel's mentors or plans to build a libertarian island. I care about how he and others leveraged PayPal fraud identification techniques to build Palantir, the most effective analytics tools in the Western arsenal. I don't care about Palmer Luckey's disastrous stint at Facebook or that Matt Gaetz married his sister. I care that he's twice built hardware unicorns. The second of which, Anduril, has moved from a startup to multiple DoD Programs of Record within a decade and within that period of time developed breakthrough autonomous and reusable weapons systems. I don't care about Elon Musks' politics, wealth, breeding, video gaming, or whatever. I accept that he's a weirdo and don't care. Because with that we get someone who has created new industries and advanced American capabilities in battery technology, advanced manufacturing, electric transportation, neural interfaces, propulsion, rockets, reusable launch systems, satellite communication, autonomy, sensors, and so on. The transformational capabilities brought by builders far outweigh the negative aspects of their personal politics.

This isn't new thinking. We used Nazi's to build our space program and win the space race. One of the inventors of the transistor and semiconductor was a eugenicist. Our auto-industry was built by a notorious anti-semite. So many American advancements have come from people who, at some level and to varying degrees, don't fully embrace what we now view as common values. Historically we've accepted that. Right now it appears that Republicans will embrace the big tent approach in order to win. Democrats want to purity test, which I think is a losing strategy for both America and at the ballot box.

One thought about your point regarding Musk's influence. Sure he has outsized influence, but that's not uncommon from wealthy political donors. In fact, I'd strongly prefer that Trump be influenced by the pro-growth Musk wing over the nationalist Bannon-wing. But I appreciate the transparency. At least we know who is pulling the strings. For the past few years we've been lied to about the capacity of our current president. We now know that his deteriorating condition was apparent within the first few months of his taking office and everyone in the administration, including Kamala Harris, lied to us. We don't know who has been or is currently making decisions in the Oval Office. So spare me the Democrat indignation over unelected people influencing the president.