Martin-Willie Handcart Immigrants

[Northwestcoug]

You are floundering because the data isn't skewed and you think it is. The point of the graph was to show the pioneer mortality rate compared to the average person in the US at that time. I think it's a valid comparison as it shows that the pioneers were just as well off (in terms of dying) crossing the plains as they were if they stuck it out in Nauvoo. It shows that church leaders did not put them in undue peril by crossing the plains. It shows that you were just as likely to live as a pioneer as you were as someone in the general US.

I don't know how you can make that claim without knowing more of the study details than the rest of us. I think it's an interesting comparison. I would like to know how the pioneer mortality rate compared with the general population. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to find no difference, or even a slightly 'better' rate than the general population. However, it makes complete sense to question the methodology. It isn't looking for a 'gotcha' at all.

The breaking out of the W&M data makes sense in that the circumstances of those companies were different. They left later in the year against the advice of many around them (even some church members/leaders were against them leaving). They went anyway (mostly influenced by over zealous church leaders) and were caught in the storms. Their situation was very different and thus should be broken out to give an accurate comparison of regular handcart travel compares to other forms of travel. It would be misleading to leave the W&M data out altogether, but that's not what happened. The W&M data is right there next to the rest of the handcart data. This is a very rational way to look at the data and it's how people uses statistics in the real world everyday.

After thinking about this, I agree with your position a little more. There were different circumstances. But I still sympathize with a more purist argument that delays in travel should be considered very real consequences of handcart travel. And what about other potential freak accidents? What if unforseen bad weather caused more deaths than usual in a given year, even if that company left 'the right time'? Would you want that year to be excluded because it was an outlier? So I'm agnostic on splittling the W&M data from the rest.

As for the use of 1850s mortality data, I'm not sure why they didn't use more data but it's likely there isn't any other data. A census is performed every 10 years in the US so it's likely they only have 1850 data and as Pelado pointed out the 1860 data is probably skewed due to war (although I guess science would ignore the fact a war was waging and use the unaltered data anyway ). Can you find more general US mortality data against which to make a comparison? If so, by all means post it so we can see it, but in its absence it seems the researchers used the best data available to them at the time.

After a cursory search, I realized the intro to statistics I took as a freshman was not nearly up to the task of answering these questions. However, there is data out there. 1850 is considered the first 'decent' year that has some good data. You are right that it's based on census data, so I'm not sure if the researchers' use of 1850 data is from 1840-1850 or 1850-1860. We just don't know.

For those who are interested (the rest: beware!), this seems to be a good summary of the available data on mortality rates in the US, from the late 18th century to the early 20th century:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2885717/

As far as I can tell, life expectancy showed a steady decrease of about four years from the early 18th century until about 1850-1860. I believe infant mortality is the main factor here. The life expectancy from 1860-1870 for white males took a dip, as most suggested because of the civil war. But it looks like female life expectancy increased and infant mortality decreased to the point that negated a lot of the white male loss.

One thing I learned is the data is all over the place. There are a lot of assumptions, and best estimates are derived from the work of multiple people. Some of the graphs comparing each researchers' estimates look like there's very poor correlation.

At any rate, I read the Des News article. I'll emphasize again, I think it's an interesting comparison. I'd like to know what it was really like. But just like the census data, we may not have sufficient pioneer data to make a knowledgeable comparison:

Of the 270 or so Mormon pioneer companies, one-third left comprehensive rosters, one-third left partial rosters and one-third left absolutely no lists...

So what killed the pioneers? That remained mostly elusive, as records provided no cause for 80 percent of the deaths. But the No. 1 killer was cholera, which accounted for 40 percent of the deaths of those for whom a cause was listed.

I think in the end, based on incomplete data, one can assume that there wasn't a significant difference in the mortality rates between the pioneers and the general population. Credit goes to those researchers who tried to make reasonable assumptions. But it certainly isn't a cynical exercise to question methodology.

[Pelado]

http://historytogo.utah.gov/people/brighamyoung.html

Young emerged as Mormonism's principal leader, following the assassination of Joseph Smith in 1844, skillfully and successfully beating back the claims of several challengers. By 1846, in response to extreme anti-Mormon violence, Young determined that his followers could not remain in Illinois and proceeded to organize the mass Mormon migration West. Through careful planning and preparation, he presided over what became the largest and best organized westward trek of pioneers in history. He personally lead the first pioneer company to the Great Basin, and on 24 July 1847, upon seeing the Great Salt Lake Valley for the first time announced: "It is enough, this is the right place, drive on." Over the next thirty years, he continued to supervise the migration of thousands of emigrants to the Great Basin through the formation of the Perpetual Emigrating Fund Company, which brought them West by various means, including covered wagon, handcart, church teams and finally railroad. He also oversaw Mormon settlement in dozens of far-flung communities throughout Utah and also in Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, and California in the process becoming one of the foremost colonizers in American history.

[Joe Public]

http://historytogo.utah.gov/people/brighamyoung.html

I took my oldest girls on the boat tour at Lake Arrowhead, and the captain pointed out some fruit trees close to the shore that Mormon loggers had planted in the 1860s to provide food. Tangential to the thread, but your quote reminded me of it.

[Sullyute]

Our pals at Mormon Expositor have a new podcast on the Willie and Martin Handcart disaster. They interview historian Will Bagley. He really seems to know his stuff, but is so cynical and biased against church leaders (past and current) that it is hard to know what is fact and what is his spin. Here are a couple of funny quotes from Bagley:

"I do feel, very much, that Mormons are great people; their leaders to this very day are a regular set of scoundrels."

In speaking about the movie 17 Miracles, "The immigrants really only needed one miracle... for it to not snow on the South Pass until December. But apparently there was just something in these people's faces that really pissed God off, so he made it blizzard in September."

[Northwestcoug]

Our pals at Mormon Expositor have a new podcast on the Willie and Martin Handcart disaster. They interview historian Will Bagley. He really seems to know his stuff, but is so cynical and biased against church leaders (past and current) that it is hard to know what is fact and what is his spin. Here are a couple of funny quotes from Bagley:

"I do feel, very much, that Mormons are great people; their leaders to this very day are a regular set of scoundrels."

In speaking about the movie 17 Miracles, "The immigrants really only needed one miracle... for it to not snow on the South Pass until December. But apparently there was just something in these people's faces that really pissed God off, so he made it blizzard in September."

Will Bagley is an excellent historian, especially when you consider he's basically an amateur historian. I haven't finished his book "Overland West", but the first few chapters really are first-rate history. I've read some Mormon-themed essays of his, and they are well-written researched. I would guess that his conclusions about the Martin and Willey companies are fairly well-backed up by good sources.

And yes, he does have an axe to grind. He makes no bones about his disdain/hatred for Brigham Young and the leadership of that era. I would agree that at times he lets his personal opinion color his conclusions. That's his right; he's done his research. But it is immature to include his atheism when discussing the outcome of the handcart companies.

I think a legitimate and charitable explanation for the handcart disaster would include an arrogant Brigham Young and associates, who given their own personal journeys dealt too casually with other immigrants. And that they let that arrogance cloud their judgment to the point where they couldn't foresee the terrible consequences of their decisions.

[myboynoah]

Will Bagley is an excellent historian, especially when you consider he's basically an amateur historian. I haven't finished his book "Overland West", but the first few chapters really are first-rate history. I've read some Mormon-themed essays of his, and they are well-written researched. I would guess that his conclusions about the Martin and Willey companies are fairly well-backed up by good sources.

And yes, he does have an axe to grind. He makes no bones about his disdain/hatred for Brigham Young and the leadership of that era. I would agree that at times he lets his personal opinion color his conclusions. That's his right; he's done his research. But it is immature to include his atheism when discussing the outcome of the handcart companies.

I think a legitimate and charitable explanation for the handcart disaster would include an arrogant Brigham Young and associates, who given their own personal journeys dealt too casually with other immigrants. And that they let that arrogance cloud their judgment to the point where they couldn't foresee the terrible consequences of their decisions.

I don't know how one squares that.

[Northwestcoug]

I don't know how one squares that.

We all have axes to grind...

[Bo Diddley]

We all have axes to grind...

I agree that our life's experiences color the lenses through which we view the world. However, the honest seeker of truth does not grind axes.

[All-American]

I agree that our life's experiences color the lenses through which we view the world. However, the honest seeker of truth does not grind axes.

Then there are no honest seekers of truth.