Martin-Willie Handcart Immigrants

[Pheidippides]

This isn't true. There are more wards and stakes every year. I'm sure someone around here has a graph that shows it.



Missions have always been (with the exception of the early church years) primarily for the benefit and conversion of the missionary. I've even heard many exmos state this, especially in regards to the times before the raising of the bar. In fact, it was Christine Jeppsen Clark that told about the stories of her youth when parents would try to sober up their kids long enough to get them sent on missions in the hopes the kids would shape up.

The church itself says that about missions, or at least said it recently. I will see if I can find a link. Of course, it was in response to observations about a mere 4 percent increase in converts as opposed to a 40 percent or so increase in missionaries, so they had incentive to say it.

As to the shrinking thing, your and my area are still growing, but others are shrinking. The magic number is rate of resignations - I don't have a clue, to be honest. The 15 million number that gets tossed around is nice but isn't a good measure as it represents a best case scenario and includes every inactive member and people like me. I don't know what the true number is -tell me what true means first - but It's relevant that in the latest census the number of people that self - identified as mormon was about half the church - published number in the US.

[Moliere]

The church itself says that about missions, or at least said it recently. I will see if I can find a link. Of course, it was in response to observations about a mere 4 percent increase in converts as opposed to a 40 percent or so increase in missionaries, so they had incentive to say it.

As to the shrinking thing, your and my area are still growing, but others are shrinking. The magic number is rate of resignations - I don't have a clue, to be honest. The 15 million number that gets tossed around is nice but isn't a good measure as it represents a best case scenario and includes every inactive member and people like me. I don't know what the true number is -tell me what true means first - but It's relevant that in the latest census the number of people that self - identified as mormon was about half the church - published number in the US.

Sooner said the number of wards and stakes was shrinking. It's not.

[Pheidippides]

Sooner said the number of wards and stakes was shrinking. It's not.

Oh, yeah, you can prove or disprove that in 10 seconds on LDS.org.

[Moliere]

Oh, yeah, you can prove or disprove that in 10 seconds on LDS.org.

[wuapinmon]

I'm definitely more outspoken and dickish online. Sure things get awkward once in a while, but that dissipates quickly. Real life- good luck getting me to say what I thnk.

Or kiss first.

[Commando]

Or kiss first.

...

[Omaha 680]

The church itself says that about missions, or at least said it recently. I will see if I can find a link. Of course, it was in response to observations about a mere 4 percent increase in converts as opposed to a 40 percent or so increase in missionaries, so they had incentive to say it.

As to the shrinking thing, your and my area are still growing, but others are shrinking. The magic number is rate of resignations - I don't have a clue, to be honest. The 15 million number that gets tossed around is nice but isn't a good measure as it represents a best case scenario and includes every inactive member and people like me. I don't know what the true number is -tell me what true means first - but It's relevant that in the latest census the number of people that self - identified as mormon was about half the church - published number in the US.

Half? That's way better than I would have guessed.

[taekwondave]

Evil is the only word for it.

Really interesting stuff. Can't agree with this part though. It implies the leaders who thought they were prophesying didn't really think they were prophesying--that rather, they knew they were full of shit and that they were speaking to a gullible audience and that they planned to use their deaths/sufferings as propaganda for their building their church.

That sounds like confirmation bias to me--like maybe you just WANT that to be true. I don't buy it. I would need a lot more evidence than what you presented here to believe that the leaders that encouraged their ill-timed migration weren't just as delusional as those they were advising. You seem to be accusing these men of murder and I see no evidence of that.

Were they negligent? Were they foolish? Were they playing with fire (or rather ice) in testing the limits of their own faith and authority with the lives of others in the balance? Sure. But that seems to have been a common practice in the early church (e.g. blessing the sick, commanding storms to end or begin, prophesying future events from dreams or just wishful thinking, etc). It was something these people practiced and believed worked. I see no reason to think that these men didn't think that when they prophesied that these saints would be shielded from the snow, that God wouldn't make good on their words for them. They were wrong, yes. It was stupid of them in hindsight, sure...but evil? Murderers? You're stretching there and I think that's why people are coming at you more forcefully than usual.

[Eddie]

I'm confused.

Up until recently I have rarely (never?) gone out of my way to take a closer look at church history aside from what I pick up in primarily church sources. And to be quite honest, it isn't as if I'm out looking hard for it now.

That said - I've always been given to know that the Willey-Martin company left too late. I've always been given to know that there were knowledgeable folks there who told them they were leaving too late and should wait - while other leaders said they should hurry and could beat the weather. I've always understood that as a group they decided to see how fast they could get there in spite of the risks. I'll accept that if they'd never passed a winter in the US they didn't know what they were up against - but I've done dumb things after under-appreciating the advice of a more experienced person as well. It is what it is.

I've never heard that it was a good idea that they left late. And truly, one of the few positive stories is the quote from some guy who heard people criticizing leaders years later and who basically said "don't take that away from us - that experienced helped us get to know God."

In fact - more recently I was looking into some of my own family history and read somewhere that after the Willey-Martin fiasco Brigham Young set a hard date for folks crossing the plains and said he would excommunicate any leaders who left after that date. Seems like a case of recognizing it was a dumb idea to me.

All that aside - I can also see how the stories and experiences would be used to take the pieces that can build faith versus take the pieces that would tear it down. I mean, this is a church we're talking about, right? Aren't there lessons to be learned from tragedy and how people respond? I would put the story of Job from the Old Testament in a similar light.

I have no idea how/where it is being said that the experience of the Willey-Martin folks was awesome filled with good decisions made by all involved. I've never heard that version of the story until now.

[Pheidippides]

Half? That's way better than I would have guessed.

About on par with my guess. I think this is a complete non - event to anybody who pays attention to church numbers at all, in or out.

[CJF]

About on par with my guess. I think this is a complete non - event to anybody who pays attention to church numbers at all, in or out.

We just did our quarterly audit in my ward. We have a lot of people who fall through the cracks. We have employed the Utah football marketing mentality of don't make us come and get you. It has worked pretty well. In a ward that has a huge amount of regular travelers, we averaged right around 85% attendance. Some of that is supplemented by a very healthy dose of weekly visitors. And while not all of these attending are Americans, most are from first world countries or oddly enough, Iran.

[Pheidippides]

We just did our quarterly audit in my ward. We have a lot of people who fall through the cracks. We have employed the Utah football marketing mentality of don't make us come and get you. It has worked pretty well. In a ward that has a huge amount of regular travelers, we averaged right around 85% attendance. Some of that is supplemented by a very healthy dose of weekly visitors. And while not all of these attending are Americans, most are from first world countries or oddly enough, Iran.

Are you saying that there may be double counting, or something different? 85 percent would blow the pants off of any ward I've been in.

[The Fourth Nephite]

Really interesting stuff. Can't agree with this part though. It implies the leaders who thought they were prophesying didn't really think they were prophesying--that rather, they knew they were full of shit and that they were speaking to a gullible audience and that they planned to use their deaths/sufferings as propaganda for their building their church.

That sounds like confirmation bias to me--like maybe you just WANT that to be true. I don't buy it. I would need a lot more evidence than what you presented here to believe that the leaders that encouraged their ill-timed migration weren't just as delusional as those they were advising. You seem to be accusing these men of murder and I see no evidence of that.

Were they negligent? Were they foolish? Were they playing with fire (or rather ice) in testing the limits of their own faith and authority with the lives of others in the balance? Sure. But that seems to have been a common practice in the early church (e.g. blessing the sick, commanding storms to end or begin, prophesying future events from dreams or just wishful thinking, etc). It was something these people practiced and believed worked. I see no reason to think that these men didn't think that when they prophesied that these saints would be shielded from the snow, that God wouldn't make good on their words for them. They were wrong, yes. It was stupid of them in hindsight, sure...but evil? Murderers? You're stretching there and I think that's why people are coming at you more forcefully than usual.

Brigham Young disagrees with you. In a letter to Orson Pratt, he said, "The immigration is too late. This is an evil that must be remedied in future."

Also, from http://nsltrek2014.com/willie-and-martin-overview/

"Shortly after, President Young instructed emigration authorities that, in the future, they were never to allow saints to leave Florence for Salt Lake later than August 1 and if they did, they would be excommunicated. He described a late immigration as an “evil” because, not only did it risk the lives of the travelers, but it put a burdensome task upon the saints in Salt Lake to resupply them with food which sometimes was scarce in the valley."

Levi Savage said, "...we all know that we are bound to be caught in the snow and severe cold weather long before we reach the valley...Brother Willey exhorted the Saints to go forward regardless of suffering even to death...I then related to the Saints the hardships that we should have to endure. I said that we were liable to have to wade in snow up to our knees and shovel at night, lay ourselves in a thin blanket and lie on the frozen ground without a bed."

Leaders of the handcart companies prophesied that they knew God would protect them. Obviously a false prophesy. If I were to ever claim such divine knowledge that could affect the well-being of those under my care, I had better be darn certain that God really was talking to me.

What would would everybody say if I knowingly left my young child locked in a hot car on a sweltering day and he died. Would you call that evil? What if I had unshakeable faith that God would send a cloud to cool the temperature where the car was parked. Would that change your opinion?

[Omaha 680]

Are you saying that there may be double counting, or something different? 85 percent would blow the pants off of any ward I've been in.

Mine too, although I wouldn't want the pants blown off most of my wards.

[SoonerCoug]

It sounds like I have been completely vindicated since Brigham Young also called it evil that they had been told to leave so late.

I'll be accepting apologies in my forum mailbox.