Church growth -- Matt Martinich Cumorah project podcast

[New Mexican Disaster]

The untold story, IMO, is the decline in LDS reproductive rates.

True dat. The last number I saw was that the average Mormon woman gave birth to slightly more than 3 children, whereas the US average is slightly more than 2.

[NorthwestUteFan]

True dat. The last number I saw was that the average Mormon woman gave birth to slightly more than 3 children, whereas the US average is slightly more than 2.

That fact likely contributes to the drop from 60k+ missionaries to 50k and related decline in convert baptisms over the last decade or so as much as 'raising the bar' to qualify for missionary service.

[jay santos]

That fact likely contributes to the drop from 60k+ missionaries to 50k and related decline in convert baptisms over the last decade or so as much as 'raising the bar' to qualify for missionary service.

Probably not.

[Indy Coug]

Probably not.

Raw totals are relatively meaningless. Provide these numbers as a percentage of 19 to 21 or 23 year old members worldwide.

[Viking]

Raw totals are relatively meaningless. Provide these numbers as a percentage of 19 to 21 or 23 year old members worldwide.

i'd look at it as a % of active members worldwide in age eligible cohorts

[jay santos]

Raw totals are relatively meaningless. Provide these numbers as a percentage of 19 to 21 or 23 year old members worldwide.

So you look at those numbers, see the drop of 5,000 in one year and another drop of 5,000 the next year (missions are two years), and think it's unlikely it's due to a policy change ie "raise the bar" and most likely due to demographics?

[Indy Coug]

So you look at those numbers, see the drop of 5,000 in one year and another drop of 5,000 the next year (missions are two years), and think it's unlikely it's due to a policy change ie "raise the bar" and most likely due to demographics?

It's due to both, but knowing the apportionment is impossible without more than raw totals of missionaries serving.

[Indy Coug]

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/680194052/1-million-missionaries-for-LDS-Church--so-far.html

A third factor in the drop was a demographic quirk: The number of 19-year-old men in the church in North America dropped a few years ago and will remain low for a few more years before rising again, Ballard said.

[jay santos]

It's due to both, but knowing the apportionment is impossible without more than raw totals of missionaries serving.

Nah. Sure it's always nice to have more data, but this is pretty obvious.

[NorthwestUteFan]

It's due to both, but knowing the apportionment is impossible without more than raw totals of missionaries serving.

Judging by the years showing the dropoff, I would also suggest that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan played a role. At the time I remember a number of high school grads in my stake who chose military service over a mission. We would hang a 'mission plaque' for them on the bulletin board in the foyer along with the other missionary plaques.

And didn't the 'raise the bar' initiative occur post 2005? At any rate the raw numbers need to be non-dimensionalized to be more useful.

[Moliere]

Maybe the first step would be to stop expecting people around the world to wear white shirts and ties. I cringe when I see wards in Africa where all the PH tries to dress like they are from Utah/Idaho.

[jay santos]

Judging by the years showing the dropoff, I would also suggest that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan played a role. At the time I remember a number of high school grads in my stake who chose military service over a mission. We would hang a 'mission plaque' for them on the bulletin board in the foyer along with the other missionary plaques.

And didn't the 'raise the bar' initiative occur post 2005? At any rate the raw numbers need to be non-dimensionalized to be more useful.

December 2002

[NorthwestUteFan]

December 2002

Out of curiosity, do you also know the convert baptism numbers for those years? It might be interesting to know if the efficiency drops off as well. Looking back at my most effective and gregarious companions, I realize most of them would not be allowed to go on missions today.

[Uncle Ted]

Pew Research shows that the Church may not be growing (and may actually be shrinking depending on the margin of error) in the US... 1.7% in 2007 and 1.6% in 2014:

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/

The Deseret News, reporting on this study, points out mormons have big families...

Mormon families are America's largest, new study finds

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865628480/Mormon-families-are-Americas-largest-new-study-finds.html

They do mention this about the mormon population in the U.S....

The study found that LDS Church numbers held steady. Its share of the rising U.S. population was 1.6 percent in 2014. Though that was down slightly from 1.7 percent in 2007, the difference was within the study's margin for error.


"It's also striking, and you see this in other national studies, that the percentage of Mormons doesn't really change, and that's interesting," said David Campbell, co-author of "American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us."

Considering that christianity overall lost about 8% of its members in the U.S. I guess the LDS membership holding steady can be considered a good thing.

[Dwight Schr-ute]

Wow. I'm actually above the Mormon average. Never thought I'd be in that group.