I like Dieter's chances

[SoonerCoug]

So I've been looking at the Q of the 12 and thinking about who is most likely to ascend to the top at some point. Here are the apostles in order of seniority with birth year included. When assessing likelihood, my guess is purely based on age of apostle, age of apostles ahead of them, and the eyeball test. The "eyeball test" is an assessment of things like frailty, obesity, or known medical conditions.

1. Thomas Spencer Monson (b. 1927)
2. Boyd Kenneth Packer (b. 1924)
3. Lowell Tom Perry (b. 1922)
4. Russell Marion Nelson (b. 1924)
5. Dallin Harris Oaks (b. 1932)
6. Melvin Russell Ballard, Jr. (b. 1928)
7. Richard Gordon Scott (b. 1928)
8. Robert Dean Hales (b. 1932)
9. Jeffrey Roy Holland (b. 1940)
10. Henry Bennion Eyring (b. 1933)
11. Dieter Friedrich Uchtdorf (b. 1940)
12. David Allan Bednar (b. 1952)
13. Quentin LaMar Cook (b. 1940)
14. D. Todd Christofferson (b. 1945)
15. Neil L. Andersen (b. 1951)

A few things really stand out to me here. First of all, I give Elders Packer and Perry basically zero chance of outliving President Monson, although I hear that President Monson has type II diabetes. I also rank Elders Ballard, Scott, Hale, and Holland quite low based on the eyeball factor.

I'm pretty sure our next prophet is going to be either an incapacitated Elder Perry/Packer, or it's going to be Elder Nelson. It's no secret that I'm not absolutely crazy about Elder Nelson, but I sincerely hope he outlives Elder Oaks. Hopefully he keeps exercising. Elder Eyring looks quite fit, but he was born in 1933, and so I don't give him a very high likelihood of making it. So then you're looking at Elders Holland and Uchtdorf with the 1940 b-date, and Holland clearly fails the eyeball test. We are going to have a German prophet someday, folks. His was the only talk I listened to this weekend, and it was a real winner.

Beyond that, Elder Bednar is sitting pretty. I still don't know what to make of that.

[Surfah]

I hope that I look that good at 70.

[pellegrino]

I'll be honest, the only one on that list that I'm uncomfortable with becoming prophet is the one that's next in line. It sounds awful, but I do hope I never have to deal with that situation.

[Surfah]

I'll be honest, the only one on that list that I'm uncomfortable with becoming prophet is the one that's next in line. It sounds awful, but I do hope I never have to deal with that situation.

It's amazing how the mantle can soften some. I think you may be surprised. I hope.

[pellegrino]

It's amazing how the mantle can soften some. I think you may be surprised. I hope.

I hope so, I really do hope so.

[CardiacCoug]

I spent at least 5 minutes trying to figure out what this post had to do with dieting before I understood the thread title.

I need to get some sleep.

[FMCoug]

I hope so, I really do hope so.

See Ezra Taft Benson.

[Moliere]

So I've been looking at the Q of the 12 and thinking about who is most likely to ascend to the top at some point. Here are the apostles in order of seniority with birth year included. When assessing likelihood, my guess is purely based on age of apostle, age of apostles ahead of them, and the eyeball test. The "eyeball test" is an assessment of things like frailty, obesity, or known medical conditions.

1. Thomas Spencer Monson (b. 1927)
2. Boyd Kenneth Packer (b. 1924)
3. Lowell Tom Perry (b. 1922)
4. Russell Marion Nelson (b. 1924)
5. Dallin Harris Oaks (b. 1932)
6. Melvin Russell Ballard, Jr. (b. 1928)
7. Richard Gordon Scott (b. 1928)
8. Robert Dean Hales (b. 1932)
9. Jeffrey Roy Holland (b. 1940)
10. Henry Bennion Eyring (b. 1933)
11. Dieter Friedrich Uchtdorf (b. 1940)
12. David Allan Bednar (b. 1952)
13. Quentin LaMar Cook (b. 1940)
14. D. Todd Christofferson (b. 1945)
15. Neil L. Andersen (b. 1951)

A few things really stand out to me here. First of all, I give Elders Packer and Perry basically zero chance of outliving President Monson, although I hear that President Monson has type II diabetes. I also rank Elders Ballard, Scott, Hale, and Holland quite low based on the eyeball factor.

I'm pretty sure our next prophet is going to be either an incapacitated Elder Perry/Packer, or it's going to be Elder Nelson. It's no secret that I'm not absolutely crazy about Elder Nelson, but I sincerely hope he outlives Elder Oaks. Hopefully he keeps exercising. Elder Eyring looks quite fit, but he was born in 1933, and so I don't give him a very high likelihood of making it. So then you're looking at Elders Holland and Uchtdorf with the 1940 b-date, and Holland clearly fails the eyeball test. We are going to have a German prophet someday, folks. His was the only talk I listened to this weekend, and it was a real winner.

Beyond that, Elder Bednar is sitting pretty. I still don't know what to make of that.

I have to say when it comes to sharing personal thoughts SoonerCoug is probably the second most honest poster on this board after BYU71.

[pellegrino]

See Ezra Taft Benson.

Like I said, I really hope so.

[woot]

What are people's thoughts on Bednar? I'm not very familiar with the last 5 people on that list, and I'm guessing he's a special guy since they almost guaranteed him leadership of the church calling him so young. Is he a good speaker? I don't seem to hear anything about him on here.

[myboynoah]

What are people's thoughts on Bednar? I'm not very familiar with the last 5 people on that list, and I'm guessing he's a special guy since they almost guaranteed him leadership of the church calling him so young. Is he a good speaker? I don't seem to hear anything about him on here.

Well, woot, I think you're opening the flood gates.

[falafel]

What are people's thoughts on Bednar? I'm not very familiar with the last 5 people on that list, and I'm guessing he's a special guy since they almost guaranteed him leadership of the church calling him so young. Is he a good speaker? I don't seem to hear anything about him on here.

I personally don't like his hairstyle. I can't imagine how he actually parts that thing.

[woot]

Well, woot, I think you're opening the flood gates.

Oh is he a divisive fella? I'd be interested to hear thoughts about any of those 5 guys, actually. It seems that Uchtdorf is well-liked; what about the others?

[pellegrino]

What are people's thoughts on Bednar? I'm not very familiar with the last 5 people on that list, and I'm guessing he's a special guy since they almost guaranteed him leadership of the church calling him so young. Is he a good speaker? I don't seem to hear anything about him on here.

I know him, he's very conservative, but he's not overbearing and not close minded. He really does have a heart of gold. He's gotten a lot of grief for his don't take offense talk, but that's to be expected given the topic. On the plus side, he's an academic, Phd in organizational behavior, although he spent a good portion of his career in administration. I wouldn't have a problem with him ascending to the highest heights at all. He'll have to outlive Elder Dieter though.

[New Mexican Disaster]

So I've been looking at the Q of the 12 and thinking about who is most likely to ascend to the top at some point. Here are the apostles in order of seniority with birth year included. When assessing likelihood, my guess is purely based on age of apostle, age of apostles ahead of them, and the eyeball test. The "eyeball test" is an assessment of things like frailty, obesity, or known medical conditions.

1. Thomas Spencer Monson (b. 1927)
2. Boyd Kenneth Packer (b. 1924)
3. Lowell Tom Perry (b. 1922)
4. Russell Marion Nelson (b. 1924)
5. Dallin Harris Oaks (b. 1932)
6. Melvin Russell Ballard, Jr. (b. 1928)
7. Richard Gordon Scott (b. 1928)
8. Robert Dean Hales (b. 1932)
9. Jeffrey Roy Holland (b. 1940)
10. Henry Bennion Eyring (b. 1933)
11. Dieter Friedrich Uchtdorf (b. 1940)
12. David Allan Bednar (b. 1952)
13. Quentin LaMar Cook (b. 1940)
14. D. Todd Christofferson (b. 1945)
15. Neil L. Andersen (b. 1951)

A few things really stand out to me here. First of all, I give Elders Packer and Perry basically zero chance of outliving President Monson, although I hear that President Monson has type II diabetes. I also rank Elders Ballard, Scott, Hale, and Holland quite low based on the eyeball factor.

I'm pretty sure our next prophet is going to be either an incapacitated Elder Perry/Packer, or it's going to be Elder Nelson. It's no secret that I'm not absolutely crazy about Elder Nelson, but I sincerely hope he outlives Elder Oaks. Hopefully he keeps exercising. Elder Eyring looks quite fit, but he was born in 1933, and so I don't give him a very high likelihood of making it. So then you're looking at Elders Holland and Uchtdorf with the 1940 b-date, and Holland clearly fails the eyeball test. We are going to have a German prophet someday, folks. His was the only talk I listened to this weekend, and it was a real winner.

Beyond that, Elder Bednar is sitting pretty. I still don't know what to make of that.

Oaks has got a great shot at grabbing the ring. He is 8 years younger than everyone except Monson that is ahead of him.

If he does become prophet that should be very exciting for a person I know. He used to introduce himself as Hi, my name is ____, I am Dallin H. Oaks grandson." He will probably get a lot of mileage if his grandfather is the prophet.