Indy Coug and Utah St

[pelagius]

@Cougarstats: BYU could have three 2012 foes finish in top 25. The most BYU opponents in a season to finish season ranked was 5 in 1991.

This doesn't seem quite fair to me Indy. I think there are four teams that could finish the season in the top 25

1. Notre Dame
2. Oregon St
3. Boise St.
4. Utah St.

In terms of odds, I actually think there is pretty good odds for all of them at least at the end of the regular season being ranked (I mean their individual probability not the joint probability of all four).

1. Notre Dame: Expected wins = 10 or 11 wins are the most likely (9 or 12 are possible but much less likely). Good chance of end of season ranking.

2. Oregon St: Expected Wins 10, or 11 are all about equal likely (with 9 having lower probability). Good chance of being ranked

3. Boise St: Almost all the distriubtional mass is at 10 or 11 wins. Good chance of being ranked at the end of the season.

4. Utah St: Around a 50% chance of ending 10-2 with loses only to at least solid teams. Definitely could be ranked.

Now, it is low probability that all four will, but certainly 4 could.

[BoylenOver]

USU would have to beat LaTech to get ranked. As good as the Aggies are, I don't see it happening.

[pelagius]

USU would have to beat LaTech to get ranked. As good as the Aggies are, I don't see it happening.

That's they only uncertainty left in their season. Everyone else they play is dreadful, and they have about a 95% probability or above in those other games (most are around 98-99%).

I am not sure how "I don't see it happening" translates into probabilities but I can't imagine anyone arguing that there is only a trivial probability that Utah St wins. Louisiana Tech looks like a solid football team but at best they are about equal with Utah St. So factor in home field advantage for Louisiana Tech and I would say Utah St has (using a conservative estimate) about a 40% probability of winning. Thus they certainly could be ranked at the end of the season. It's not a lock or anything but it is certainly not a low probability event.

[YOhio]

Great thread, pelagius. I dare Donuthole or one of the other thread regulators to try and bust your chops. They don't have the guts.

[pelagius]

Great thread, pelagius. I dare Donuthole or one of the other thread regulators to try and bust your chops. They don't have the guts.

Oh, I bet Donuthole does; he is a very gritty poster. (Plus, didn't you just take care of that for them?)

[YOhio]

[QUOTE=pelagius;898060(Plus, didn't you just take care of that for them?)[/QUOTE]

No no. I don't mind all the different threads.

[FMCoug]

There is only one problem with this thesis. USU lost to one of their terrible opponents ... BYU.

[Donuthole]

Oh, I bet Donuthole does; he is a very gritty poster. (Plus, didn't you just take care of that for them?)

He tried and failed. Quality regulation not only informs you of your misdeed but shows you how to correct it.

P-lag is right; I am gritty and determined. In the last half of my sixth year of eligibility, I may learn to throw it away and live to post another post. But for now, I'll continue to force the issue.

[pelagius]

There is only one problem with this thesis. USU lost to one of their terrible opponents ... BYU.

Yes, I know this is the fashionable (and funny) comment these days but It is just not true (or a least not relative to a reasonable model for ratings). BYU is a flawed team, but outside of the top 10-20 everyone is flawed or seriously lacking in talent. A reasonable estimate for the quality of BYU right now is the following: estimated rank = 35 with a 90 confidence interval ranging from 25 - 55. That's not terrible unless we've come up with a new definition of the word. There are about 120 teams in D1A so BYU is most likely a second quintile team; thus BYU isn't even (to the shock and dismay of many I am sure) a mediocre team; BYU is once again (as it typically has been since 1986) probably moderately above average.

[YOhio]

Yes, I know this is the fashionable (and funny) comment these days but It is just not true (or a least not relative to a reasonable model for ratings). BYU is a flawed team, but outside of the top 10-20 everyone is flawed or seriously lacking in talent. A reasonable estimate for the quality of BYU right now is the following: estimated rank = 35 with a 90 confidence interval ranging from 25 - 55. That's not terrible unless we've come up with a new definition of the word. There are about 120 teams in D1A so BYU is most likely a second quintile team; thus BYU isn't even (to the shock and dismay of many I am sure) a mediocre team; BYU is once again (as it typically has been since 1986) probably moderately above average.

You always know just the thing to say to cheer us all up!

[FMCoug]

Yes, I know this is the fashionable (and funny) comment these days but It is just not true (or a least not relative to a reasonable model for ratings). BYU is a flawed team, but outside of the top 10-20 everyone is flawed or seriously lacking in talent. A reasonable estimate for the quality of BYU right now is the following: estimated rank = 35 with a 90 confidence interval ranging from 25 - 55. That's not terrible unless we've come up with a new definition of the word. There are about 120 teams in D1A so BYU is most likely a second quintile team; thus BYU isn't even (to the shock and dismay of many I am sure) a mediocre team; BYU is once again (as it typically has been since 1986) probably moderately above average.

You always know just the thing to say to cheer us all up!

I'm a self-loathing Cougar fan dammit! Lies, damn lies, and statistics!

[pelagius]

You always know just the thing to say to cheer us all up!

I try (I am trying to stop CUF football discussion from almost being perfectly correlated with cougarboard in both tone and content) ... I think I get the angst. Seasons (for the typical fan) are made much more fun if there is still hope of a positive outlier outcome. That hope has been dashed and was by the 4th game of the season. Contrast that with the 2001 season. That was never a great team; even entirely healthy, good models placed that team as only moderately better than this 2012 team. But most people really enjoyed that season and even today remember it fondly; the hope or possibility of a once in a decade result remained alive until deep in the season.

[Blueintheface]

I try ... I think I get the angst. Seasons (for the typical fan) are made much more fun if there is still hope of a positive outlier outcome. That hope has been dashed and was by the 4th game of the season. Contrast that with the 2001 season. That was never a great team; even entirely healthy, good models placed that team as only moderately better than this 2012 team. But most people really enjoyed that season and even today remember it fondly; the hope or possibility of a once in a decade result remained alive until deep in the season.

Your like Mary Poppins...if Mary Poppins was a robot. Spoonful of Quaker State makes the medicine go down!

[Coach McGuirk]

I try (I am trying to stop CUF football discussion from almost being perfectly correlated with cougarboard in both tone and content) ... I think I get the angst. Seasons (for the typical fan) are made much more fun if there is still hope of a positive outlier outcome. That hope has been dashed and was by the 4th game of the season. Contrast that with the 2001 season. That was never a great team; even entirely healthy, good models placed that team as only moderately better than this 2012 team. But most people really enjoyed that season and even today remember it fondly; the hope or possibility of a once in a decade result remained alive until deep in the season.

This is where I agree with DDD, while their is little hope for a recognizable achievement this season, this has been one of the more enjoyable and memorable seasons I have had as a fan. I have been having a great time.

[ERCougar]

Yes, I know this is the fashionable (and funny) comment these days but It is just not true (or a least not relative to a reasonable model for ratings). BYU is a flawed team, but outside of the top 10-20 everyone is flawed or seriously lacking in talent. A reasonable estimate for the quality of BYU right now is the following: estimated rank = 35 with a 90 confidence interval ranging from 25 - 55. That's not terrible unless we've come up with a new definition of the word. There are about 120 teams in D1A so BYU is most likely a second quintile team; thus BYU isn't even (to the shock and dismay of many I am sure) a mediocre team; BYU is once again (as it typically has been since 1986) probably moderately above average.

We're also ranked much higher than Utah by nearly every model (except the scoreboard one... )--Utah wouldn't even be considered a good win at this point in the season. Yet you don't see nearly the same level of angst on that side. Can't quite figure out why that is.