The State of Utah Football, The Pac-12, and The 2011 Season

[Jarid in Cedar]

So upon the completion of spring camp I have a few thoughts about the current state and future prospects for Utah football.

As per usual, Utah's success this season is going to be driven by the defense.

Our defensive line is the only unit that has both experience and the necessary depth to be a dominant unit in the Pac-12. With 2 returning starters,5 players with significant field experience), and several others who were impressive in the spring(. The only lingering concern is the ability to garner a significant pass rush with only the front 4.

The linebackers have improved athleticism with Blechen now at the Stud position. Walker and Martinez have plenty of experience, and by report, were getting to position quicker this spring as compared to last season. After the 3 starters, there are lots of question marks: JJ Williams(health), David Fageron(athleticism), and Jacoby Hale/VJ Fehoko(plenty of talent but zero experience). One or two injuries to this unit could spell disaster during the coming season.

The secondary has no returning starters, and only 1 player with significant playing time(Conroy Black). There is, however a wealth of talented athletic players vying for a chance to prove themselves. Utah is depending on Keith McGill making it to fall camp to anchor the secondary similarly to Robert Johnson(big shoes to fill). I like the future for this unit, but they are likely to get abused early on. Hopefully, they will gel as the season progresses.

The offense is going to be a mystery this season. Implementing a new offense with your starting QB unable to make any throws, while facing a significant upgrade in schedule is not exactly the recipe for success. The change of philosophy was needed and will reap more long term success than sticking with the spread. However, the growing pains are going to be evident this year(and likely next year as well).

The quarterback position is going to be the most unsettled of all of the spots on the offense. Robles was hurt most by the new offense. He is much better suited for the spread option than either Wynn or Shreve. He had 2 years of practicing in the spread that were flushed. And he struggled with the footwork of playing under center. Shreve is too raw and needs time to acclimate to college ball and to learn the nuances of the offense. I hope he will redshirt. Wynn will need to take full advantage of the summer to get in sync with the receivers. He will clearly be the starter in the fall, but that is as much a result of the poor performances of Shreve and Robles this spring.

The change in offensive philosophy is going to be evident at every position this season and success is going to depend on how quickly players can "unlearn" the past and assimilate into a system that may not exactly match the skillset that they were initially recruited for. The line is going to have to move to a more aggressive mindset, more 3 pt stances, more running plays in general. The receivers are going to have to improve route running, timing, and learn to read defenders more proficiently(Jereme Brooks would be an utter failure in this offense).

Areas that will see emphasis in recruiting would include:

1. Linebacker. Need more depth, more athleticism. May see more "larger" safties recruited to play LB (ala Blechen)

2. Offensive line. Larger bodies. Taller tackles.

3. Tight End. Blocking abilites will be emphasized.

4. Receiver. Less emphasis on raw athletic ability. More emphasis on route running, decision making, etc.

5. FB. Actually recruiting to the position.

Looking forward to the season. I forsee plenty of 20-17, 17-14, 28-24 scores. The defense should hold up their end of the bargain through the year, but the offense is going to struggle. It is going to take some time for Chow's offense to be grasped by the current group, and for the players who are recruited directly to the system to mature. I look to the offense being much improved in 2012, but 2011 is going to be an adventure.

[OrangeUte]

Great write-up as usual, JIC. Thanks for taking the time.

I have been thinking about the OLine for awhile and thought that we might have a depth problem there. While it may not be a targeted recruiting area because of depth concerns only, it looks like the Utes are focused on the OLIne for 2012's class. It sounds like the right place for their focus to be.

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogsut...neman.html.csp

As for Blechen and the future of the Utes' LBers, having watched Blechen last year, i dig that kind of prototype for LB. He was all over the field making plays, and showcased an ability to move quickly but also hit hard and without giving much yardage after contact. That is a mold i would love to see KWhit go after.

As for the linked blog, a 400 lb lineman? wow.

[Top Ute]

So upon the completion of spring camp I have a few thoughts about the current state and future prospects for Utah football.

As per usual, Utah's success this season is going to be driven by the defense.

Our defensive line is the only unit that has both experience and the necessary depth to be a dominant unit in the Pac-12. With 2 returning starters,5 players with significant field experience), and several others who were impressive in the spring(. The only lingering concern is the ability to garner a significant pass rush with only the front 4.

The linebackers have improved athleticism with Blechen now at the Stud position. Walker and Martinez have plenty of experience, and by report, were getting to position quicker this spring as compared to last season. After the 3 starters, there are lots of question marks: JJ Williams(health), David Fageron(athleticism), and Jacoby Hale/VJ Fehoko(plenty of talent but zero experience). One or two injuries to this unit could spell disaster during the coming season.

The secondary has no returning starters, and only 1 player with significant playing time(Conroy Black). There is, however a wealth of talented athletic players vying for a chance to prove themselves. Utah is depending on Keith McGill making it to fall camp to anchor the secondary similarly to Robert Johnson(big shoes to fill). I like the future for this unit, but they are likely to get abused early on. Hopefully, they will gel as the season progresses.

The offense is going to be a mystery this season. Implementing a new offense with your starting QB unable to make any throws, while facing a significant upgrade in schedule is not exactly the recipe for success. The change of philosophy was needed and will reap more long term success than sticking with the spread. However, the growing pains are going to be evident this year(and likely next year as well).

The quarterback position is going to be the most unsettled of all of the spots on the offense. Robles was hurt most by the new offense. He is much better suited for the spread option than either Wynn or Shreve. He had 2 years of practicing in the spread that were flushed. And he struggled with the footwork of playing under center. Shreve is too raw and needs time to acclimate to college ball and to learn the nuances of the offense. I hope he will redshirt. Wynn will need to take full advantage of the summer to get in sync with the receivers. He will clearly be the starter in the fall, but that is as much a result of the poor performances of Shreve and Robles this spring.

The change in offensive philosophy is going to be evident at every position this season and success is going to depend on how quickly players can "unlearn" the past and assimilate into a system that may not exactly match the skillset that they were initially recruited for. The line is going to have to move to a more aggressive mindset, more 3 pt stances, more running plays in general. The receivers are going to have to improve route running, timing, and learn to read defenders more proficiently(Jereme Brooks would be an utter failure in this offense).

Areas that will see emphasis in recruiting would include:

1. Linebacker. Need more depth, more athleticism. May see more "larger" safties recruited to play LB (ala Blechen)

2. Offensive line. Larger bodies. Taller tackles.

3. Tight End. Blocking abilites will be emphasized.

4. Receiver. Less emphasis on raw athletic ability. More emphasis on route running, decision making, etc.

5. FB. Actually recruiting to the position.

Looking forward to the season. I forsee plenty of 20-17, 17-14, 28-24 scores. The defense should hold up their end of the bargain through the year, but the offense is going to struggle. It is going to take some time for Chow's offense to be grasped by the current group, and for the players who are recruited directly to the system to mature. I look to the offense being much improved in 2012, but 2011 is going to be an adventure.

A pretty good write-up, but if we really are involved in that many close games, you gotta give us your .02 on special teams. We've always excelled in one or multiple aspects (Sakoda, Phillips, Shaky), but we've always been dreadful in at least one (punt protect, KO coverage, ball security). What's it going to be this year? You never know from year to year with Utah.

The good thing about 2011 is that if you're going to be devastatingly strong in one unit, and average/mediocre/horrible everywhere else, you want that one unit to be your defensive line. With an above-average pass rush, this unit will be good enough to keep us in just about every game, at worst, and provide the tipping-point to get us a win or two that was otherwise a loss, statistically.

[Jarid in Cedar]

A pretty good write-up, but if we really are involved in that many close games, you gotta give us your .02 on special teams. We've always excelled in one or multiple aspects (Sakoda, Phillips, Shaky), but we've always been dreadful in at least one (punt protect, KO coverage, ball security). What's it going to be this year? You never know from year to year with Utah.

The good thing about 2011 is that if you're going to be devastatingly strong in one unit, and average/mediocre/horrible everywhere else, you want that one unit to be your defensive line. With an above-average pass rush, this unit will be good enough to keep us in just about every game, at worst, and provide the tipping-point to get us a win or two that was otherwise a loss, statistically.

I forgot to get the SP unit in. I see three major issues:

1. I hope that Sellwood regains his mojo this year. He was a solid punter as a freshman, but the blocks got in his head last year and he started shanking everything.

2. I would like to see Coleman Peterson step up and take the place kicking job. I just don't see Marsh as the guy at that spot. If Marsh is doing the place kicking, I am going to have more than a few Ryan Kaneshiro flashbacks, and I paid good money in therapy to make those go away.

3. Punt coverage is always the one part of special teams that has me holding my breath over the last few years.


I think our return teams will be good this year. Hopefully fewer fumbles than Shaky had last year, even if there are fewer fireworks. I think that Dunn will provide most of the exicitement in the return dept.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Interesting write-up, JIC. Obviously, there are so many questions to be answered, but if you had to put all your chips on one selection, what would you bet now will be Utah's regular season record? And contrary what I might do to others, I would not wave a wrong, even a horribly wrong, guess in your face come December. I'm just curious about expectations. I follow the PAC 12 fairly closely--I confess I'll be rooting for Cal at AT&T--but I have little idea what to expect this year in the conference or from Utah. A regular season win total within the range of 6 and 10 wouldn't surprise me (btw, I'll be the pessimist here and go with 7-5, what with QB issues and the newness of foreign venues; feel free to mock).

It will be a very interesting season, and I'm looking forward to it (for Utah and BYU) as much as any in memory.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Interesting write-up, JIC. Obviously, there are so many questions to be answered, but if you had to put all your chips on one selection, what would you bet now will be Utah's regular season record? And contrary what I might do to others, I would not wave a wrong, even a horribly wrong, guess in your face come December. I'm just curious about expectations. I follow the PAC 12 fairly closely--I confess I'll be rooting for Cal at AT&T--but I have little idea what to expect this year in the conference or from Utah. A regular season win total within the range of 6 and 10 wouldn't surprise me (btw, I'll be the pessimist here and go with 7-5, what with QB issues and the newness of foreign venues; feel free to mock).

It will be a very interesting season, and I'm looking forward to it (for Utah and BYU) as much as any in memory.

I would land at 8-4 which assumes middle of the road outcomes on the variables that I think will affect the season the most(QB health, OLine play, how quickly the secondary gels/matures). The ceiling is 10-2 and the floor is 5-7, IMO. If the secondary comes together quickly, our defense should be top 3 in the conference. I would be ecstatic if the offense is 5th or better, 7th or 8th is most likely given all of the unknowns.

I look at each game as rough probabilites of a win:

99%-Montana State
75%-CU, UCLA, @WSU
50%-@Pitt, @BYU, ASU, OSU, UW
25%-@Cal, @UoA, @USC

I have some real concerns about how well Utah will play on the road in the Pac-12. Our recent road record against these teams is abyssmal. Pitt is a long trip, but that team has a ton of talent leave from last years underachieving team. BYU will be favored by 3-4, so that should be a barnburner(as usual).

We get the weakest conference team on the road so that was a fortuitous draw. CU and UCLA will likely be 2 teams worse than us on offense, and we have them at home. USC is the mostly likely loss. If we can get one of Cal or UoA, and 3 of the 50-50 games, then 8-4 is likely.

[LA Ute]

Arizona State has high hopes for this season:

Arizona State: 'It's our time now'

[PaloAltoCougar]

I would land at 8-4 which assumes middle of the road outcomes on the variables that I think will affect the season the most(QB health, OLine play, how quickly the secondary gels/matures). The ceiling is 10-2 and the floor is 5-7, IMO. If the secondary comes together quickly, our defense should be top 3 in the conference. I would be ecstatic if the offense is 5th or better, 7th or 8th is most likely given all of the unknowns.

I look at each game as rough probabilites of a win:

99%-Montana State
75%-CU, UCLA, @WSU
50%-@Pitt, @BYU, ASU, OSU, UW
25%-@Cal, @UoA, @USC

I have some real concerns about how well Utah will play on the road in the Pac-12. Our recent road record against these teams is abyssmal. Pitt is a long trip, but that team has a ton of talent leave from last years underachieving team. BYU will be favored by 3-4, so that should be a barnburner(as usual).

We get the weakest conference team on the road so that was a fortuitous draw. CU and UCLA will likely be 2 teams worse than us on offense, and we have them at home. USC is the mostly likely loss. If we can get one of Cal or UoA, and 3 of the 50-50 games, then 8-4 is likely.

I think you've got a very good shot at beating Cal in a low-scoring squeaker. The Bears' woes at QB will likely continue.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

The offense is going to be a mystery this season. Implementing a new offense with your starting QB unable to make any throws, while facing a significant upgrade in schedule is not exactly the recipe for success. The change of philosophy was needed and will reap more long term success than sticking with the spread. However, the growing pains are going to be evident this year(and likely next year as well).

Good breakdown. One thing that is going to be hard for Utah to have a good year is if they don't have a good offense. You can have a great defense and not win in the Pac. To win in the Pac being able to score a lot of points is a must.

I don't think you are suggesting Utah will win the conference, just to show what kind of offense it takes to win the conference.

I think the Chow hire was a good one, and agree that Utah is not going to be able to recruit at the level to make the spread work at a high level in the Pac. The offense needs to get Utah 25+ a game to have a decent in conference record. Can they do that?

[Top Ute]

Good breakdown. One thing that is going to be hard for Utah to have a good year is if they don't have a good offense. You can have a great defense and not win in the Pac. To win in the Pac being able to score a lot of points is a must.

I don't think you are suggesting Utah will win the conference, just to show what kind of offense it takes to win the conference.

I think the Chow hire was a good one, and agree that Utah is not going to be able to recruit at the level to make the spread work at a high level in the Pac. The offense needs to get Utah 25+ a game to have a decent in conference record. Can they do that?

And to further underscore your point, of the seasons you cited with the two lowest PPG by the champion -- 2006-07 USC was not an outright champion. They shared those honors with Cal and Arizona State, respectively.

Now, divisional play and the title game changes the dymanics of a conference champion significantly, but I think the point remains the same: To be able to lay claim to an outright Pac-12 championship, you've got to be a top 15 offense nationally.

[LA Ute]

Good breakdown. One thing that is going to be hard for Utah to have a good year is if they don't have a good offense. You can have a great defense and not win in the Pac. To win in the Pac being able to score a lot of points is a must.

I don't think you are suggesting Utah will win the conference, just to show what kind of offense it takes to win the conference.

I think the Chow hire was a good one, and agree that Utah is not going to be able to recruit at the level to make the spread work at a high level in the Pac. The offense needs to get Utah 25+ a game to have a decent in conference record. Can they do that?

I hope they can do it enough to get 7 or 8 wins.

FWIW, at an alumni gathering in L.A. yesterday Chow said several times, and pretty emphatically, that Jordan Wynn "really has a chance to be a special player." I hope he's right and that Chow isn't the kind of coach who's given to hyperbole. As for the rest of the offense, Chow said they're really happy with Langi, Palamo and White at RB and with the receivers (including tight ends). The only thing he's really worried about are the guard positions, and they have players and a plan to fix those. It depends on players being healthy. Sounded a little shaky to me.

[LA Ute]

Tucson sports radio guys on Utah football's impact in the PAC-12.

[il Padrino Ute]

Tucson sports radio guys on Utah football's impact in the PAC-12.

I predict a ton of vitriol will be directed toward the radio guys if this link is posted on ufn.

[LA Ute]

I predict a ton of vitriol will be directed toward the radio guys if this link is posted on ufn.

Probably. I thought it was pretty accurate.

[il Padrino Ute]

Probably. I thought it was pretty accurate.

As did I. It's a fact that the PAC is better than the MWC and the Utes will have to up their game to be competitive. Fortunately, KW and staff are capable and I believe up to the challenge.