What scares me about BYU (and independence)

[KillerDog]

I have to admit that I have been against the independence movement from the start. As time has gone on, I have had to admit to myself that the reason I am against independence is because I don't know how well BYU can survive as an independent. I know that they can get good games and make good money but I don't think the team and the program are well designed to keep the fanbase interested in rough years. Let me explain. My fear of independence is that BYU runs a high risk of getting blown out in any loss. That risk apparently can carry over into a major downturn in season consistency as well.

BYU recruits a very similar talent level to Utah and TCU. They get different results out of those recruiting classes. I don't believe the different results are a caused by different level of coaching. I think we coach up our talent as well as TCU or Utah. I think the number of players in the NFL from all three schools supports that position. Therefore, we have to ask ourselves, what is the difference in philosophy between BYU and TCU/Utah which is causing BYU to get blown out by teams (even in good years) and have down years? That inconsistency is what will kill independence.

Interestingly, BYU, TCU, and Utah all have head coaches who came up through the defensive ranks of coaching. These guys were former defensive coordinators. As you would expect, TCU and Utah have very consistent defenses. Regardless of player turnover, they put top level defenses on the field year in and year out. As a result, they are always in games, even in bad years or against good teams. BYU does not do that. BYU takes lots of recruits who are slated to play defense but want to play offense. BYU recruits the same number of players to defense as to offense but has a much lower attrition rate on offense. As a result, BYU has the majority of its talent on offense. This is not what BYU and TCU do and it is not what the great programs do.

Take a look at the best leagues and programs around the country. Those leagues and programs, by and large, stock their defenses first. If someone is only an offensive player (QB for example) or is capable of being a complete freak on offense (like a true stud running back) then he plays offense. But, when you just look at pure athletes or guys who could go either way, they all play defense. This makes a lot of sense because it is generally OK to substitute and rotate your defense a lot but it is generally not OK to do that with your offense. QB, starting TB, offensive line, those positions generally are manned by one guy. That's 7 of 11 on the offensive side of the ball. There are back-ups but they usually don't get many snaps. Defense, otoh, has only one or two positions that don't rotate much, weak side D-end (although he could rotate without problem) and your elite cover corner (if you have one and don't play a bunch of zone).

All of this goes to the point that for BYU to succeed as an independent, they need to get fan support and to get consistent fan support, you have to be in games every game and in the season every season. You don't do that with offense, you do that with defense. Until BYU realizes that and starts trying to obtain a top 10 defense every year, they will always be a blow out risk and an upset risk. Blow outs and upsets upset the fanbase and could bring independence to an undignified end.

[shoganai]

BYU recruits a very similar talent level to Utah and TCU. They get different results out of those recruiting classes. I don't believe the different results are a caused by different level of coaching. I think we coach up our talent as well as TCU or Utah. I think the number of players in the NFL from all three schools supports that position. Therefore, we have to ask ourselves, what is the difference in philosophy between BYU and TCU/Utah which is causing BYU to get blown out by teams (even in good years) and have down years? That inconsistency is what will kill independence.

BYU can recruit talent equal or better than Utah at the following positions: QB, RB, TE, OL, DL, LB, S, K, P.

The honor code restrictions, however, drive away a big chunk of certain athletic types that fill the WR and CB ranks.

Being BYU, we'll fill the receiver pipeline first. That means we'll usually have average, but not spectacular defenses.

[KillerDog]

BYU can recruit talent equal or better than Utah at the following positions: QB, RB, TE, OL, DL, LB, S, K, P.

The honor code restrictions, however, drive away a big chunk of certain athletic types that fill the WR and CB ranks.

Being BYU, we'll fill the receiver pipeline first. That means we'll usually have average, but not spectacular defenses.

I don't agree with your list. Utah consistently has as good or better talent at RB, K, P, and LB. It doesn't matter though. The overall recruiting scores for BYU and Utah are relatively similar but the outcomes are different because of where they allocate the talent. That's my point. We should fill the defense first, not the offense. Defense keeps you in games. If we had great depth at defense, we would have been in both TCU and FSU down the stretch because our D just wore down.

Here are some examples. O'Neil Chambers. That kid was born to be a safety. He is very similar in speed, size, fluidity etc. to Andrew Rich. We put him on offense. Mike Hague. He was best in HS playing safety. Obviously his build is such that he is best suited for LB. Where does he play at BYU? Second string fullback. Guys who could do either, like Fabuluje and Rowley, are historically steered toward the offensive side of the ball. It doesn't make sense and it isn't smart.

[jay santos]

The formula for great BYU defenses of the past 20 years is a dominating front seven and an adequate secondary. Since the late 90's, we've only had a dominating front seven one year which was 2003/2004. We seem to have missed a lot in the recruiting on the DL. We've got a lot of walk on's getting PT on the defense. Something like 10/12 of the safeties on the roster are walk on's. Most of the LB's are either walk on's or 2 star recruits. Van Noy, Pendleton, Stout are the only guys on the roster (excluding missionaries) that got any recruiting attention. We need more talent in the system.

What scares me about independence is what we have to stay interested once we lose three games, especially now that Utah's not at the end of the year. I don't think this is a defense or offense issue.

[DapperDan]

The fanbase isn't ready for the reality of the upgraded schedule they are clamoring for. We're far to used to our steady diet of cream puffs with a few meat & potatoes and the occasional fancy steak dinner. I fear this year's longing for the NM, CSU, UNLV and Wyoming chunk of the schedule is but a sign of things to come.

I also don't think the admin is ready for that reality. I still get a sense of entitlement from them (We win because we are BYU) rather than the need to go out and earn our way. But I could be wrong.

[jay santos]

The fanbase isn't ready for the reality of the upgraded schedule they are clamoring for. We're far to used to our steady diet of cream puffs with a few meat & potatoes and the occasional fancy steak dinner. I fear this year's longing for the NM, CSU, UNLV and Wyoming chunk of the schedule is but a sign of things to come.

I also don't think the admin is ready for that reality. I still get a sense of entitlement from them (We win because we are BYU) rather than the need to go out and earn our way. But I could be wrong.

Agree. I would look at an 8-4 season playing a great schedule the same as a 10-2 during the MWC, but I don't think many of our fans see it that way.

[Indy Coug]

There is no safety net with independence, and for a program that has a small booster base and an athletic department that is required to be fully self-funded and a television partner that has only three channels and 5 other BCS conference options and which probably also doesn't have unlimited patience, the risk is very real.

[CJF]

I don't agree with your list. Utah consistently has as good or better talent at RB, K, P, and LB.

I would add DL and Safety to that list also. Utah has dominated BYU in DL recruiting recently with the exception of last year. And outside of Andrew Bitch, when was the last time you could say BYU had better safeties than Utah?

[Goatnapper'96]

The fanbase isn't ready for the reality of the upgraded schedule they are clamoring for. We're far to used to our steady diet of cream puffs with a few meat & potatoes and the occasional fancy steak dinner. I fear this year's longing for the NM, CSU, UNLV and Wyoming chunk of the schedule is but a sign of things to come.

I also don't think the admin is ready for that reality. I still get a sense of entitlement from them (We win because we are BYU) rather than the need to go out and earn our way. But I could be wrong.

I think the fanbase overestimates BYU's real place in the world, but this year is not a real good example IMO. A lot of things went wrong this year.

I also doubt that unless BYU gets into the Big-12 there will still be plenty of creampuffs on BYU's schedule. However, I agree with Jay that playing them has no real point other than to play the 12 games. I don't think that this independence is a real good idea unless BYU uses it as a catapult to get into the Big-12. In football fans will lose interest in BYU once a BCS game is out of the question. That is the litmus test of success with a great deal of the fanbase. With the next few September schedules that will usually be the case by General Conference.

I think the only entitlement I sense from the admin is the belief that BYU deserved more money than it was getting. Initially that will prove to be true, but if independence continues for a long haul BYU might not be the hot uhhhh warmer than CSU and WYO topic that it is.

[Goatnapper'96]

I don't agree with your list. Utah consistently has as good or better talent at RB, K, P, and LB.

I think BYU has had equal better LBs.

[Flystripper]

I would add DL and Safety to that list also. Utah has dominated BYU in DL recruiting recently with the exception of last year. And outside of Andrew Bitch, when was the last time you could say BYU had better safeties than Utah?

What the hell is that about?

[jay santos]

There is no safety net with independence, and for a program that has a small booster base and an athletic department that is required to be fully self-funded and a television partner that has only three channels and 5 other BCS conference options and which probably also doesn't have unlimited patience, the risk is very real.

Financial risk is minimal. The risk is areas of being competitive or in keeping fan interest.

[LiveCoug]

Independence scares the crap out of me. I'm still thinking that it lasts less than 5 years and we will be in the Big 12. Well, I hope anyway.

[byu71]

There is no safety net with independence, and for a program that has a small booster base and an athletic department that is required to be fully self-funded and a television partner that has only three channels and 5 other BCS conference options and which probably also doesn't have unlimited patience, the risk is very real.

Hark the herald angels sing, I agree with this.

I am worried the folks at BYU have sold ESPN, the fans and themselves a pipe dream. I am reminded of Bronco when he first took over as coach and the fans who loved what he was saying.

Recruits will recruit BYU, not the other way around. We will have mainly LDS RM's on the team. Won't recruit a lot of non-members. Kick players off the team who don't buy into the system. You guys know the mantra. I think a lot of it was coach speak to the religionists, but I also think he started buying into his own rhetoric because of the success he was having.

A wake up call was, as good as he was doing, BSU, TCU and Utah were doing as well or better. Also, the claim we will get all the best LDS athletes proved to be another pie in the sky proclamation.

Now it isn't about the money or BCS, I call BS on that, but "exposure". I can tell you. If you don't get in the BCS mix once in a awhile, that exposure will be to only the folks you are already exposed to.

Anymore years like this and ESPN might sue for "breach of contract".

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Agree. I would look at an 8-4 season playing a great schedule the same as a 10-2 during the MWC, but I don't think many of our fans see it that way.

Where are these great schedules though? According to Coach's post in the Indy Schedule thread, in 2012 right now we have 5 uninteresting or worse than current MWC games scheduled and 4 games equal or greater to current MWC. With 3 games left on the schedule I would suspect that perhaps one interesting and 2 uninteresting ones get added.

Right now after 2011, we don't have a schedule that should produce happiness with many 8-4 seasons.