Starting QB: analysis and predictions

[jay santos]

Sorry if someone gets offended I started a new thread.

I assumed all summer Heaps would start. I was OK with Nelson being named the starter with Heaps having a role. I assumed it was because Heaps was the long term QB but wasn't quite ready.

I could not be happier with how the QB's looked Saturday and how the two QB system went.

I think we lose that game with Heaps only. I think with Heaps alone it very likely could have looked like this: Heaps is frustrated early, three and out's cause poor field position which leads to Washington getting out to early lead of two TD's or so. Washington brings the heat all game and our running game can never get anything going to keep them honest. The OL does well but Heaps gets knocked around a little. Heaps gets better as the game goes on but it's not enough. BYU loses.

I think we also lose with Nelson only. With Nelson only I think it goes like this: the first half goes just like it did, but by the second half Washington has figured out they don't need to guard anyone 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. They keep a spy on Nelson, jam the corners, and stack the box. BYU fails to move the ball in the second half and Washington extends the half time lead. BYU loses.

The two QB system gave them just different enough of a look that they could never figure out exactly how to stop us. This trick won't last long, but it might last a few games. Long enough for Heaps to get some mojo.

Heaps analysis: throws a great ball. This biz about no touch is nonsense. Receivers need to catch the ball. A couple balls were thrown low or behind receivers. That's accuracy not touch. But overall the accuracy was very good. The decision making was good. The poise was very good after the first series. It's amazing a little guy like that can whip the ball around so well, but he does it. I predict he's as good as Max Hall by the end of the year and as good as John Beck senior season by the end of next year.

Nelson analysis: very adequate. If we had no Heaps, he could fill in for two years and it would be frustrating to see him fail to hit the long or medium passes that require zip, but he'd win games and get the job done. His throwing is a little better than I expected. He's accurate and can make most throws he needs to, just not all of them. I'd like to see DiLuigi's numbers with Nelson in and Heaps in. I'd guess he had a 10 yard average with Nelson and a zero yard average with Heaps. Nelson's running opens everything up. Defenses will start to key in on that, but it's working for now. And works great as a change up for Heaps.

Predictions: I think coaches have that FSU game circled as the last time they need Nelson to buffer Heaps. Heaps has four games to get acclimated and have Heaps there to deflect pressure and help open the game up for him. If he continues to play well, he'll be named starter after that. Through FSU: every other series. After FSU: Heaps is full time starter with Nelson coming in as a changeup maybe two series a game.

[MarkGrace]

This definitely would have gone great in Killer Dog's thread.

[ERCougar]

Sorry if someone gets offended I started a new thread.

I assumed all summer Heaps would start. I was OK with Nelson being named the starter with Heaps having a role. I assumed it was because Heaps was the long term QB but wasn't quite ready.

I could not be happier with how the QB's looked Saturday and how the two QB system went.

I think we lose that game with Heaps only. I think with Heaps alone it very likely could have looked like this: Heaps is frustrated early, three and out's cause poor field position which leads to Washington getting out to early lead of two TD's or so. Washington brings the heat all game and our running game can never get anything going to keep them honest. The OL does well but Heaps gets knocked around a little. Heaps gets better as the game goes on but it's not enough. BYU loses.

I think we also lose with Nelson only. With Nelson only I think it goes like this: the first half goes just like it did, but by the second half Washington has figured out they don't need to guard anyone 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. They keep a spy on Nelson, jam the corners, and stack the box. BYU fails to move the ball in the second half and Washington extends the half time lead. BYU loses.

The two QB system gave them just different enough of a look that they could never figure out exactly how to stop us. This trick won't last long, but it might last a few games. Long enough for Heaps to get some mojo.

Heaps analysis: throws a great ball. This biz about no touch is nonsense. Receivers need to catch the ball. A couple balls were thrown low or behind receivers. That's accuracy not touch. But overall the accuracy was very good. The decision making was good. The poise was very good after the first series. It's amazing a little guy like that can whip the ball around so well, but he does it. I predict he's as good as Max Hall by the end of the year and as good as John Beck senior season by the end of next year.

Nelson analysis: very adequate. If we had no Heaps, he could fill in for two years and it would be frustrating to see him fail to hit the long or medium passes that require zip, but he'd win games and get the job done. His throwing is a little better than I expected. He's accurate and can make most throws he needs to, just not all of them. I'd like to see DiLuigi's numbers with Nelson in and Heaps in. I'd guess he had a 10 yard average with Nelson and a zero yard average with Heaps. Nelson's running opens everything up. Defenses will start to key in on that, but it's working for now. And works great as a change up for Heaps.

Predictions: I think coaches have that FSU game circled as the last time they need Nelson to buffer Heaps. Heaps has four games to get acclimated and have Heaps there to deflect pressure and help open the game up for him. If he continues to play well, he'll be named starter after that. Through FSU: every other series. After FSU: Heaps is full time starter with Nelson coming in as a changeup maybe two series a game.

Totally agree with this. Heaps, especially with in the first half, looked nervous and jittery--Nelson looked much more comfortable and poised.

The only point I'll disagree on is that I'm not sure the coaches have any fixed ending to this. IOW, they'll use it as long as it's working, and that could be all year. It looks like we have two personalities that will roll with it and I'm not convinced that defenses will ever completely figure Nelson out--it's not like he can't throw the ball at all, and the guy's a good runner. That TD run of his is the perfect example. Everyone on and off the field knew he was running it, they had it covered, but they still couldn't keep him out.

[Goatnapper'96]

Sorry if someone gets offended I started a new thread.

I assumed all summer Heaps would start. I was OK with Nelson being named the starter with Heaps having a role. I assumed it was because Heaps was the long term QB but wasn't quite ready.

I could not be happier with how the QB's looked Saturday and how the two QB system went.

I think we lose that game with Heaps only. I think with Heaps alone it very likely could have looked like this: Heaps is frustrated early, three and out's cause poor field position which leads to Washington getting out to early lead of two TD's or so. Washington brings the heat all game and our running game can never get anything going to keep them honest. The OL does well but Heaps gets knocked around a little. Heaps gets better as the game goes on but it's not enough. BYU loses.

I think we also lose with Nelson only. With Nelson only I think it goes like this: the first half goes just like it did, but by the second half Washington has figured out they don't need to guard anyone 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. They keep a spy on Nelson, jam the corners, and stack the box. BYU fails to move the ball in the second half and Washington extends the half time lead. BYU loses.

The two QB system gave them just different enough of a look that they could never figure out exactly how to stop us. This trick won't last long, but it might last a few games. Long enough for Heaps to get some mojo.

Heaps analysis: throws a great ball. This biz about no touch is nonsense. Receivers need to catch the ball. A couple balls were thrown low or behind receivers. That's accuracy not touch. But overall the accuracy was very good. The decision making was good. The poise was very good after the first series. It's amazing a little guy like that can whip the ball around so well, but he does it. I predict he's as good as Max Hall by the end of the year and as good as John Beck senior season by the end of next year.

Nelson analysis: very adequate. If we had no Heaps, he could fill in for two years and it would be frustrating to see him fail to hit the long or medium passes that require zip, but he'd win games and get the job done. His throwing is a little better than I expected. He's accurate and can make most throws he needs to, just not all of them. I'd like to see DiLuigi's numbers with Nelson in and Heaps in. I'd guess he had a 10 yard average with Nelson and a zero yard average with Heaps. Nelson's running opens everything up. Defenses will start to key in on that, but it's working for now. And works great as a change up for Heaps.

Predictions: I think coaches have that FSU game circled as the last time they need Nelson to buffer Heaps. Heaps has four games to get acclimated and have Heaps there to deflect pressure and help open the game up for him. If he continues to play well, he'll be named starter after that. Through FSU: every other series. After FSU: Heaps is full time starter with Nelson coming in as a changeup maybe two series a game.

I agree with you in theory about what would be best for BYU, but I really think Mendenhall has a mancrush on Riley. I expect it to start taperng off slightly after Bronco allows Rod Tueller's grandson to demonstrate his wares in Logan in front of his hometown crowd.

I am not expecting a real great team this year so it is all just kind of fun. If BYU finishes with 9 or 10 regular season wins it will be an absolute blast. Enjoy it now because starting next year it is the grind of high expectations again for 3 more years. That leads to such general pissiness and unfunness.

[Indy Coug]

It will be interesting to see how much this team improves, but based on what I saw Saturday, this team has a long ways to go to be as good as any of the last four.

[jay santos]

It will be interesting to see how much this team improves, but based on what I saw Saturday, this team has a long ways to go to be as good as any of the last four.

Agree. I'm not expecting too much. Weaknesses at LB and RB will ensure we don't rise too much above #25 or so, and maybe more like #40. I am somewhat giddy about the QB situation as I was still in "wait and see" category on Heaps until Saturday. And having Nelson break him in slowly is as good of a situation as he could have.

[byu71]

It will be interesting to see how much this team improves, but based on what I saw Saturday, this team has a long ways to go to be as good as any of the last four.

I thought the team looked pretty good. I didn't think they looked as good as Utah and not even close to BSU. I didn't watch TCU.

However, they might not be as good as I am thinking. We are only favored by 1 over AFA.

[Goatnapper'96]

It will be interesting to see how much this team improves, but based on what I saw Saturday, this team has a long ways to go to be as good as any of the last four.

BYU will not get as good as BYU was in 2006 until next year or more likely the year after. I think this club can be about as good as the 2007 club, just that I think both Utah and TCU are likely to be better than they were in 2007 and I think this year's schedule is overall more difficult than the 2007 schedule.

If the ILBs improve, this defense is going to be really good IMO. Good OLBs, very good DL and a solid, yet unspecatacular, secondary is a good model for BYU. Just need the ILBs to step up.

Offense will be adequate to win, but will rarely dominate anyone this year. Just too much youth and too little time given the two different systems to bring everyone together onto the same page. Next year will be better. The year after that when it is Jake Heaps show and these youngsters have some time together it is going to be like the offense in 2006. If Quezada develops into as good as Curtis Brown and Apo reaches his potential as a gamebreaker and somebody who can stretch the field vertically, BYU will be absolutely lethal.

[MarkGrace]

It looks like we have two personalities that will roll with it and I'm not convinced that defenses will ever completely figure Nelson out--it's not like he can't throw the ball at all, and the guy's a good runner.

I don't know that anyone thinks Riley can't throw at all, I just think people wonder if he's going to be able to throw enough when teams start forcing him to do so a little more.

Riley was basically exactly what I expected him to be: tough, competitive, fairly gifted with his feet, and his threat of the run enough to loosen up the defense a little so that he was able to connect on some pretty easy throws. He also made some passes that were LOL bad and IMO showed one of the worst arms I've seen in the pocket at BYU in a good while. It will be interesting to see how teams adjust against him, and what adjustments he makes in return. Thus far he keeps getting it done, and I would love to see that continue.

[wally]

I agree with you in theory about what would be best for BYU, but I really think Mendenhall has a mancrush on Riley. I expect it to start taperng off slightly after Bronco allows Rod Tueller's grandson to demonstrate his wares in Logan in front of his hometown crowd.

I am not expecting a real great team this year so it is all just kind of fun. If BYU finishes with 9 or 10 regular season wins it will be an absolute blast. Enjoy it now because starting next year it is the grind of high expectations again for 3 more years. That leads to such general pissiness and unfunness.

I agree. Lower expectations creates more potential for funness (per your theorum, correct?).

My question is what would that fun look like? Some close dramatic games or some drama in the locker room? Both?

[Flystripper]

I don't know that anyone thinks Riley can't throw at all, I just think people wonder if he's going to be able to throw enough when teams start forcing him to do so a little more.

Riley was basically exactly what I expected him to be: tough, competitive, fairly gifted with his feet, and his threat of the run enough to loosen up the defense a little so that he was able to connect on some pretty easy throws. He also made some passes that were LOL bad and IMO showed one of the worst arms I've seen in the pocket at BYU in a good while. It will be interesting to see how teams adjust against him, and what adjustments he makes in return. Thus far he keeps getting it done, and I would love to see that continue.

I thought Riley's pass TD pass to Quezada was pretty impressive. Nice touch and right on the money. Riley is Doman 2.0 TBH. Too bad DiLuigi isn't Staley 2.0.

[KillerDog]

I thought DiLuigi was very good but the guy who surprised me the most was Wilson. He runs like a receiver. In fact, he runs more like a receiver than Pitta and Pitta was a freak.

[Goatnapper'96]

I agree. Lower expectations creates more potential for funness (per your theorum, correct?).

My question is what would that fun look like? Some close dramatic games or some drama in the locker room? Both?

I think funness is watching the team improve and beating the teams it should. I also want to see BYU compete better with FSU and TCU than they did last year even though the circumstances are more difficult. I don't like locker room or fanbase drama. I have seen enough of Heaps and know enough of BYU's history and the deeply held pent up desire of BYU fans to finally make the promised land of BCS glory to recognize that the next 3 years are likely to have that cloud of high expectations and the ninniness that follows if they are unfulfilled.

[jay santos]

I thought DiLuigi was very good but the guy who surprised me the most was Wilson. He runs like a receiver. In fact, he runs more like a receiver than Pitta and Pitta was a freak.

Wilson size wise is closer to a WR than a NFL type TE. We need a bruising type TE to match with him. Can Holt be that guy?

[MarkGrace]

I thought Riley's pass TD pass to Quezada was pretty impressive. Nice touch and right on the money. Riley is Doman 2.0 TBH. Too bad DiLuigi isn't Staley 2.0.

It was.

I'm trying to think back to Doman and remember if he threw the ball as ugly as Nelson. Not convinced he's Doman, but he's not Pendleton either. Maybe somehwere inbetween.