BYU, do you know the way to San Jose?

[byu71]

In my younger days and when I was more BYU FB gung ho, this would be the perfect time to play Pebble Beach and catch a BYU football game.

Getting old sucks.

[wapiti]

Not my model; just using a simple MOV computer model. Whether I do it or Sagarin or Massey, it is all basically the same. It provides a reasonable benchmark. Right now BYU is in the 18-28 range. If they win out I imagine they will be in the 15-25 range.

Sure, people can be disappointed about the season; that's a function of expectations and the specifics of some situations (I don't believe I have been arguing against that).

The MOV models you are using give this team credit for losing close games to good teams. Thus, the model does a nice job of rating the quality of the team but not the quality of the W-L record. The W-L record is worse than the quality of the team and that's very frustrating.

[pelagius]

The MOV models you are using give this team credit for losing close games to good teams. Thus, the model does a nice job of rating the quality of the team but not the quality of the W-L record. The W-L record is worse than the quality of the team and that's very frustrating.

There is some truth to this but it is a not a dramatic difference (and for the very upper end of the range there is virtually no truth to it ... mostly because those kind of MOV models are giving weight (considerable weight) to wins and weight to MOV (also that's the type I use in the graph)). Given the close loses, BYU would expect to do better typically than 6-4 given opponent quality and BYU's quality as estimated by MOV computer models. But not dramatically and 6-4 (or worse) would still have a significant probability of happening if BYU's true quality is 18-28.

We can do a reasonable estimation of this. Suppose BYU got to replay the season (not specific moments). Further let's assume BYU's true quality is basically 20th (the upper end of the quality estimate ... the pure MOV models) and the MOV model's ratings for the opponent are basically right as well. Simulating the first 10 games will allow us to answer the question of how much worse "the W-L record is worse than the quality of the team" where quality is estimated by MOV models (as is the context here).

Simulated Distribution of Wins
So, it it not like only winning 6 games if BYU's quality is around 20 given this schedule is that surprising (winning 5 or 6 combines for a probability of almost 1/3). Yes, it is more likely that BYU would win 7 and winning 8 is about as likely as 6. But I think it is fair to say that BYU's win total is only mildly disappointing if BYU's true quality is around 20 because we would expect 7 wins not 6.

But 20 is the high end of the ranking estimates at the moment. Let's move BYU down to 25. And 25 is certainly within current estimates (and I personally think it is the best estimate).

Simulated Distribution of Wins
So if BYU's true quality is 25th, 6 wins is still a slightly disappointing outcome. On the other hand, there is an over 40% probability that BYU (even if their quality is 25th) wins 6 games or less. Given, I think 25th is the best estimate of BYU's true quality (but the rest of the season may reveal I am wrong), BYU has only mildly underdelivered wins relative to their quality as estimated by MOV models. Now if you think BYU's true quality is about 10th then they have significantly undelivered.

So while specific moments, situations, and decisions are frustrating for me this season (Oh what could have been), BYU has only slightly underdelivered on wins if their true quality is around 20-25 (if it is 28 then it is very close to the expected outcome in terms of W-L). Certainly one can be frustrated by the fact that relative to their quality and opponent quality, BYU has undelivered probably somewhere between 0.5-1.0 win; But I think it is important to note that when I say reasonable benchmarking indicates BYU's ranking is probably around 18-28, that doesn't imply a model that thinks BYU has underdelivered (relative to their quality) by 2-3 wins.

Also, another way to think about this little simulation is that it provides another benchmark. In some sense we could think of it as what ranking does BYU deserve given their ability to produce wins (but still rightly using margin of victory to determine opponent quality). BYU doesn't deserve a ranking of 20 (at least right now); they probably "deserve" a ranking in the 25-35 range. Which is still a good season by BYU post-86 standards.

[Clark Addison]

My DirecTV guide is saying Cincy vs. Temple on ESPN2 at 8:30 Saturday but that should be BYU-SJSU, right?

I'm working so there is a good chance I will have to watch this one delayed. If I turn on the DVR Sunday AM and get Cincy-Temple I'm gonna be pissed.

Something is wrong with DTV's guide. A couple days ago it had BYU-SJSU there. If you look at Saturday's schedule on ESPN2 in DTV's guide, EVERY game slot currently says Cincy vs. Temple.

[TexTechCoug]

Something is wrong with DTV's guide. A couple days ago it had BYU-SJSU there. If you look at Saturday's schedule on ESPN2 in DTV's guide, EVERY game slot currently says Cincy vs. Temple.

Saw the same thing, but went ahead and decided to record the 10:30 PM EST Cincy-Temple match-up.

Basketball and football tonight, hope I don't get called in and that my significant other either doesn't mind or goes to Twilight.

[Blueintheface]

Lotta buzz for tonights game.

[LiveCoug]

Lotta buzz for tonights game.

I truly forgot there was a game for a bit...

[Commando]

is this guy on espn3 or what?

[LiveCoug]

is this guy on espn3 or what?

ESPN2 on your television.

[Commando]

ESPN2 on your television.

Not on my television unless it's on espn3 on xbox

[Blueintheface]

We're about to leave to go to The Tavernacle, a piano bar in downtown SLC. Yeah. That's how invested I am in this game.

[Commando]

We're about to leave to go to The Tavernacle, a piano bar in downtown SLC. Yeah. That's how invested I am in this game.

That actually sounds fun! Good work man!

[DU Ute]

Lotta buzz for tonights game.

I'm sure the pregame atmosphere around Spartan Stadium is electric.

[Blueintheface]

I'm sure the pregame atmosphere around Spartan Stadium is electric.

Why aren't you at RES?

[SCcoug]

Harvey Unga makes a guest appearance on the WORLDWIDE pregame show sporting a bowtie!

edit: The crowd gets pumped up for the free pizza! :rockon1: