The Heaps of Goodbyes Thread

[Goatnapper'96]

Riley Nelson against teams that have a pulse on defense:

Air Force: 8/19 73 yards qb rating 74
Florida St: 1/4 1 yd int -22.4 qb rating(yes minus)
TCU(most stats in garbage time) 15/29 215 yards 1 td 2 int 1 backward pass qb rating 111.6
Utah 2011-fumble six

All hail the Riley Nelson era.

You are really an annoying dickhead about this. Riley Nelson is likely an above average D1 qb at best. Stop and reread what I just said before you start telling everyone that Riley is not great. Now stop again and reread a 3rd time. The point is nobody thinks Riley Nelson is that great. Stop and reread the previous sentence a couple times before you start hyperventilating to let us know that Riley is not that great - the world can see that he is not. However, he is playing much better than Jake Heaps did this year. He gives BYU the better chance to win games. Why did Riley move the ball better and score more points against USU in half the time? All your weak ass responses about rookie oc, whyohio's whining, system never run before at BYU blahblahblah, and Utah Dan's vagina hurting are crap. Stop it as you are convincing nobody. You really just look silly and stupid continuing to beat this drum about the two. In one game against the same competition with the same OC and with whyOhio whining like a bitch, Riley Nelson did significantly better. In the game against TCU Riley looked better than Jake Heaps has at any point this year for a full game. Now before you begin hyperventilating to tell the world how poorly Riley played against TCU stop and read the following sentence no less than 7 times: Riley was not that good against TCU and his game was still better than any game Jake Heaps played this year. The issue is who is the better qb for BYU this season.

Now if your issue is that there are reasons why Jake Heaps is not reaching his potential. Have at it. Make arguments that the coaches suck or some anti-mormon at iggy's spiked his edgy Arnold Palmer way back when. However, stop trying to argue that Jake Heaps was as impressive playing qb as Riley Nelson was this year by pointing out that Riley isn't that great. It gets tiring and annoying.

[Hsaru]

Irrelevant. I was also excited about him, and stayed on the Heaps bandwagon way longer than was appropriate. Cautious optimism seemed pretty universal around these parts in the offseason, as Heaps did well against most of the teams in the back half of the season (i.e. the ones with really bad defenses). That seemed good enough. It turns out, however, that it really was about the competition more than about things clicking for him. That has been demonstrated very clearly this year, as he has shat the bed against everybody, including the very bad defenses.



Do you really want to get into cherry picking individual games? Heaps has had exactly 3 career games with a QB rating better than 137.5, and exactly 4 career games with a rating higher than 116.3 (Riley has 5 games of 159.6 or better, despite having maybe half the number of starts). For reference, 116.3 would put Heaps at #95 this year, which is actually an improvement over where he finished last year, when 116.2 was his final rating and he finished tied for 98th (after spending several weeks in last place). This year, his rating is 98.6, worthy of #112 in the nation. The guy's QB rating is seriously the same as his body temperature. That's embarrassing.

Meanwhile, the 58 attempts Riley had in your 4 cherry-picked games (two of which he barely played in), his rating was 89.3, but he also had 185 rushing yards. If you throw those in, his rating is right up at 116 (I know that's not how it works). When Riley's worst games ever aren't significantly worse than Heaps' career stats, (and are arguably better than Heaps' season totals for this year) it might be time to stop trying. In addition to having a much higher career QB rating than Heaps, Riley averages another 70 yards or so on the ground compared to Heaps' career total of -157. You really need to stop trying.

Nobody is saying Riley is amazing. But Heaps is an unmitigated disaster.

No I'm just showing how ridiculous that everyone throws out Heaps big games against bad teams last year but are now ready to exalt Nelson for doing the same thing, when he has shown nothing. At least in Heap's big games he was showing he can throw the ball to all parts of the field with zip and accuracy. In Nelson's big games all we learned is he can improvise and make some gritty plays, nothing to show the ability he can be a great passer.

[Pelado]

Riley Nelson against teams that have a pulse on defense:

Air Force: 8/19 73 yards qb rating 74
Florida St: 1/4 1 yd int -22.4 qb rating(yes minus)
TCU(most stats in garbage time) 15/29 215 yards 1 td 2 int 1 backward pass qb rating 111.6
Utah 2011-fumble six

All hail the Riley Nelson era.

Jake vs the same teams:

AF: 2/6, 15 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 21 rating; 0 yards rushing
FSU: 15/31, 114 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 89.9 rating; -61 yards rushing
Utah: 27/50, 305 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 107.8 rating; -29 yards rushing (two fumbles)

In other words, Heaps' best passer-rated game against a defense with a pulse was a game in which he had two fumbles and negative rushing yards. Riley had a similar passer rating against TCU, but also added 84 yards of positive rushing.

Look, I'm hopeful that Heaps will rebound and fulfill the potential that we've all been hearing about for the last three years or so. I was pretty disappointed with his performance against Idaho State, because he was still making bad mistakes even though it was the worst competition of the year. I wanted Jake to play last year since Riley looked like garbage. But Riley has certainly improved, and Jake seems to have regressed.

[woot]

Yeah a true freshman who in his last 5 games had a qb rating of 165.2, what a fucking bust, why were we excited about this kid.

Irrelevant. I was also excited about him, and stayed on the Heaps bandwagon way longer than was appropriate. Cautious optimism seemed pretty universal around these parts in the offseason, as Heaps did well against most of the teams in the back half of the season (i.e. the ones with really bad defenses). That seemed good enough. It turns out, however, that it really was about the competition more than about things clicking for him. That has been demonstrated very clearly this year, as he has shat the bed against everybody, including the very bad defenses.

Riley Nelson against teams that have a pulse on defense:

Air Force: 8/19 73 yards qb rating 74
Florida St: 1/4 1 yd int -22.4 qb rating(yes minus)
TCU(most stats in garbage time) 15/29 215 yards 1 td 2 int 1 backward pass qb rating 111.6
Utah 2011-fumble six

All hail the Riley Nelson era.

Do you really want to get into cherry picking individual games? Heaps has had exactly 3 career games with a QB rating better than 137.5, and exactly 4 career games with a rating higher than 116.3 (Riley has 5 games of 159.6 or better, despite having maybe half the number of starts). For reference, 116.3 would put Heaps at #95 this year, which is actually an improvement over where he finished last year, when 116.2 was his final rating and he finished tied for 98th (after spending several weeks in last place). This year, his rating is 98.6, worthy of #112 in the nation. The guy's QB rating is seriously the same as his body temperature. That's embarrassing.

Meanwhile, the 58 attempts Riley had in your 4 cherry-picked games (two of which he barely played in), his rating was 89.3, but he also had 185 rushing yards. If you throw those in, his rating is right up at 116 (I know that's not how it works). When Riley's worst games ever aren't significantly worse than Heaps' career stats, (and are arguably better than Heaps' season totals for this year) it might be time to stop trying. In addition to having a much higher career QB rating than Heaps, Riley averages another 70 yards or so on the ground compared to Heaps' career total of -157. You really need to stop trying.

Nobody is saying Riley is amazing. But Heaps is an unmitigated disaster.

[Hsaru]

Riley Nelson against teams that have a pulse on defense:

Air Force: 8/19 73 yards qb rating 74
Florida St: 1/4 1 yd int -22.4 qb rating(yes minus)
TCU(most stats in garbage time) 15/29 215 yards 1 td 2 int 1 backward pass qb rating 111.6
Utah 2011-fumble six

All hail the Riley Nelson era.

[Tone Loc]

This! Good god I can't believe anyone is still wishing Heaps would play. His QB rating the last two seasons in a row have hovered either at or near the very worst in all of of the FBS. And he's also immobile, so chances are that the QBs around him are at least getting a few yards on the ground or they wouldn't be playing at all. My only question about Heaps is why he was given so much playing time to begin with. Those calling for more playing time for Heaps are insane. The kid is not just terrible; he's historically terrible. He looked lost against a bad FCS team, for crying out loud.

He needs to redshirt next year, and then be given a chance to compete with Hill and whoever else is around in 2013. If nobody else has enough experience to beat him out, then we'll struggle through a year or two of having a headcase as our QB. Or maybe that redshirt year gives him some perspective and he's able to figure things out and become a good QB. But right now, the kid just can't play at all.

Alternatively, perhaps by 2013 Doman will have figured out how to design plays for a QB that can't improvise or tuck it when the routes don't work. Either way, Heaps objectively shouldn't be playing right now.

Heaps sucks. If you cant beat out Riley Nelson, you shouldnt be allowed to start for any team in college football. And yes, I understand worse QB's are starting right now (namely Utah's), but they shouldn't be. All this talk by Bronco and Doman about him being an NFL QB, child please. We better hope to hell that Taysom Hill is good or BYU football is going to wallow in mediocrity for a long time. I have zero hope for next year, and could give two shats less about the rest of this year. This sucks.

[Hsaru]

This! Good god I can't believe anyone is still wishing Heaps would play. His QB rating the last two seasons in a row have hovered either at or near the very worst in all of of the FBS. And he's also immobile, so chances are that the QBs around him are at least getting a few yards on the ground or they wouldn't be playing at all. My only question about Heaps is why he was given so much playing time to begin with. Those calling for more playing time for Heaps are insane. The kid is not just terrible; he's historically terrible. He looked lost against a bad FCS team, for crying out loud.

He needs to redshirt next year, and then be given a chance to compete with Hill and whoever else is around in 2013. If nobody else has enough experience to beat him out, then we'll struggle through a year or two of having a headcase as our QB. Or maybe that redshirt year gives him some perspective and he's able to figure things out and become a good QB. But right now, the kid just can't play at all.

Alternatively, perhaps by 2013 Doman will have figured out how to design plays for a QB that can't improvise or tuck it when the routes don't work. Either way, Heaps objectively shouldn't be playing right now.

Yeah a true freshman who in his last 5 games had a qb rating of 165.2, what a fucking bust, why were we excited about this kid.

[KillerDog]

This! Good god I can't believe anyone is still wishing Heaps would play. His QB rating the last two seasons in a row have hovered either at or near the very worst in all of of the FBS. And he's also immobile, so chances are that the QBs around him are at least getting a few yards on the ground or they wouldn't be playing at all. My only question about Heaps is why he was given so much playing time to begin with. Those calling for more playing time for Heaps are insane. The kid is not just terrible; he's historically terrible. He looked lost against a bad FCS team, for crying out loud.

He needs to redshirt next year, and then be given a chance to compete with Hill and whoever else is around in 2013. If nobody else has enough experience to beat him out, then we'll struggle through a year or two of having a headcase as our QB. Or maybe that redshirt year gives him some perspective and he's able to figure things out and become a good QB. But right now, the kid just can't play at all.

Alternatively, perhaps by 2013 Doman will have figured out how to design plays for a QB that can't improvise or tuck it when the routes don't work. Either way, Heaps objectively shouldn't be playing right now.

I'm on board with this analysis. I don't know what is wrong with Heaps but Heaps didn't do well in Anae's system and he doesn't look good in whatever Doman is trying to do. I'm not impressed and I don't know how anyone else can be.

[woot]

Like many of you, I don't find the current situation in Provo very reassuring. But for Hsaru and those others who are Heaps' defenders, just a few notes on the situation:

First, Heaps' best outing this year was Ol' Miss, where his pass efficiency rating was 116. In contrast, Riley's performance against TCU was his worst, and was 112 (his next lowest is 160 against Oregon State and San Jose State). And of course, that doesn't include his 84 rushing yards.

In the two games where both quarterbacks saw significant minutes:
Utah State - Heaps 80, Nelson 205.
Idaho State - Heaps 116, Nelson 229.

While running the offense, Heaps has led BYU to 14, 16, 10, 24, and 20 (I extrapolated USU from 13 pts in 40 minutes being equal to 20 pts in 60 minutes). Nelson has led BYU to 42(14 pts in 20 min at USU), 29, 38, 56, and 28 pts. And yes, I do realize the competition has largely taken a dive, but against TCU, he still led the team to more points than Heaps' best performance.

To try to adjust for the competition, I ran a simple statistic that compared BYU's scoring against team A to the average pts given up by team A against other competition. So for example, against Texas, BYU scored 16 pts, but Texas averages giving up 22.3 PPG (with BYU removed). So BYU scored 6.3 pts less than expected in this example. With Heaps in the lineup, BYU averaged scoring 7.1 pts less than expected, while with Nelson, BYU scores 6.4 more than expected - a difference of 13.5 pts. (Note that I didn't include Idaho State in Riley's numbers.)

I hope Jake ends up being a great BYU QB, but there is nothing about an objective look at the numbers to make one assume Jake should be starting ahead of Riley, whether this year or next. Even if Jake outperforms him in spring practice, I'm not sure you go with him, because he did that this past year, and look how that has panned out.

And no, I'm not a true believer in Riley as being a great BYU QB, either.

This! Good god I can't believe anyone is still wishing Heaps would play. His QB rating the last two seasons in a row have hovered either at or near the very worst in all of of the FBS. And he's also immobile, so chances are that the QBs around him are at least getting a few yards on the ground or they wouldn't be playing at all. My only question about Heaps is why he was given so much playing time to begin with. Those calling for more playing time for Heaps are insane. The kid is not just terrible; he's historically terrible. He looked lost against a bad FCS team, for crying out loud.

He needs to redshirt next year, and then be given a chance to compete with Hill and whoever else is around in 2013. If nobody else has enough experience to beat him out, then we'll struggle through a year or two of having a headcase as our QB. Or maybe that redshirt year gives him some perspective and he's able to figure things out and become a good QB. But right now, the kid just can't play at all.

Alternatively, perhaps by 2013 Doman will have figured out how to design plays for a QB that can't improvise or tuck it when the routes don't work. Either way, Heaps objectively shouldn't be playing right now.

[Hot Lunch]

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/co...cc4c002e0.html

New article with quotes from Heaps when asked about if he is thinking of transferring. Didn't get the "excited" vibe about redshirting that Bronco got. If Heaps ends up transferring because he was told he won't be allowed to compete with Riley fricking Nelson in the offseason, than the coaches have botched this situation to a ridiculous degree.

I doubt the coaches will ever tell Heaps or any player that they can't compete for the starting job in the offseason. That is what spring is all about.

[NorthShoreCoug]

Like many of you, I don't find the current situation in Provo very reassuring. But for Hsaru and those others who are Heaps' defenders, just a few notes on the situation:

First, Heaps' best outing this year was Ol' Miss, where his pass efficiency rating was 116. In contrast, Riley's performance against TCU was his worst, and was 112 (his next lowest is 160 against Oregon State and San Jose State). And of course, that doesn't include his 84 rushing yards.

In the two games where both quarterbacks saw significant minutes:
Utah State - Heaps 80, Nelson 205.
Idaho State - Heaps 116, Nelson 229.

While running the offense, Heaps has led BYU to 14, 16, 10, 24, and 20 (I extrapolated USU from 13 pts in 40 minutes being equal to 20 pts in 60 minutes). Nelson has led BYU to 42(14 pts in 20 min at USU), 29, 38, 56, and 28 pts. And yes, I do realize the competition has largely taken a dive, but against TCU, he still led the team to more points than Heaps' best performance.

To try to adjust for the competition, I ran a simple statistic that compared BYU's scoring against team A to the average pts given up by team A against other competition. So for example, against Texas, BYU scored 16 pts, but Texas averages giving up 22.3 PPG (with BYU removed). So BYU scored 6.3 pts less than expected in this example. With Heaps in the lineup, BYU averaged scoring 7.1 pts less than expected, while with Nelson, BYU scores 6.4 more than expected - a difference of 13.5 pts. (Note that I didn't include Idaho State in Riley's numbers.)

I hope Jake ends up being a great BYU QB, but there is nothing about an objective look at the numbers to make one assume Jake should be starting ahead of Riley, whether this year or next. Even if Jake outperforms him in spring practice, I'm not sure you go with him, because he did that this past year, and look how that has panned out.

And no, I'm not a true believer in Riley as being a great BYU QB, either.

[Hsaru]

http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/football/article_3ccfa4c4-0b51-11e1-ab9e-001cc4c002e0.html

New article with quotes from Heaps when asked about if he is thinking of transferring. Didn't get the "excited" vibe about redshirting that Bronco got. If Heaps ends up transferring because he was told he won't be allowed to compete with Riley fricking Nelson in the offseason, than the coaches have botched this situation to a ridiculous degree.

[Hsaru]

I could be mistaken (heck, I missed the whole point Gracie was making about unattractive bassists) but I tried to elucidate what I feel is a very valid reason for redshirting next year. Riley and Jake have already had their Hayley Mills moment - barring injury, the fans, the media, and probably most of the team will think Riley has earned the right to start. I don't think Jake Saracen is mentally tough enough to hear the whispers, or the chants for Riley McCoy, at the first sign of trouble.

An extra year, not only gives him the ability to find his mental groove but takes him out of competition with the perceived ability (which will be much harder to beat than the actual ability) of Johnny Lawrence.

If this is a concern, Jake will never be a good QB. Doman needs to gear up to have Hill ready in 2013.

[Art Vandelay]

I don't get the posters who say Jake would suck next year, but then believe he will somehow magically be good by 2013. If he can't improve sitting out half this year and another offseason to be better than Riley Nelson, than I don't see a future for him.

I could be mistaken (heck, I missed the whole point Gracie was making about unattractive bassists) but I tried to elucidate what I feel is a very valid reason for redshirting next year. Riley and Jake have already had their Hayley Mills moment - barring injury, the fans, the media, and probably most of the team will think Riley has earned the right to start. I don't think Jake Saracen is mentally tough enough to hear the whispers, or the chants for Riley McCoy, at the first sign of trouble.

An extra year, not only gives him the ability to find his mental groove but takes him out of competition with the perceived ability (which will be much harder to beat than the actual ability) of Johnny Lawrence.

[Jarid in Cedar]

I hope Jake Heaps is the starter next year.