The Pac 10 expansion groundswell

[Moliere]

Please lock this thread and start a new one for Pac 10 media. It's my thread and I no longer want it used for this misogynistic and anti-intellectual purpose.

You cheer for a team that uses a racist nickname. I feel sorry for you every day.

[Uncle Ted]

Dodd on the Arizona President's comments...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...rest-and-more/

Arizona president talks keeping Pac-12 together, TV deal expectations, deadlines, Big 12 interest and more

In an extensive conversation, Robert Robbins explains the state of the Pac-12 may not be what it seems

Robert Robbins is a man with an open mind. Arizona's president wants it known that he believes a new TV rights deal acceptable to everyone in the Pac-12 will be completed in a couple of weeks.

"I think it's very high," Robbins said of the prospects of doing that deal. "Let's just say more than 95% confidence limits on this."

But as they in the business world, the entire enterprise is a "soft circle." In other words, there is interest from Pac-12 schools in doing a deal if the money is right.

"A number don't mean anything until it's a written contract," Robbins told CBS Sports. "In Mississippi, they would say, 'They're about to fixin' to give me something.' They haven't quite done it yet. We have to get a real in-writing offer."
[...]

In other words, Robert Robbins is saying to George Kliavkoff:



It seems Arizona is still very much open to joining the Big 12:

"We could drive to Lubbock," Robbins said of the location of Texas Tech, a Big 12 program. "Texas schools are good for us. Oklahoma State, it's just not that far. It's a two-hour flight."

Robbins has already talked to his peers in the Big 12. Heck, he talks to university CEOs all over the country. That's Robbins: a gregarious, brilliant, analytic, innovative, internationally renowned cardiac surgeon.

And he is looking out for his ASU brothers, Arizona and ASU are a package deal... (Smoke that the Big 12 has only been talking to Arizona?)

Robbins said out loud what the industry has been whispering: Fox had a significant hand in luring USC and UCLA to the Big Ten. We learned that Arizona and Arizona State are basically a package deal with Robbins and ASU president Michael Crow in lockstep. If one leaves the conference, the other might follow.

"The value of us, president [Michael] Crow and I, is even though we could go our separate ways, we're pretty locked in with each other," Robbins said. "We don't want to have a Texas-Texas A&M situation where one of us goes to one conference and one of us goes to the other. We're pretty aligned in that regard. If you take us in a bundle, that's a pretty attractive thing."

RR names his price:

Clearly, the number to beat -- or at least approach -- is $31.6 million. That's average annual amount of revenue each Big 12 team will get when its new media rights deal begins in 2025. Robbins said a gap of $2 million or less isn't going to make a difference. OK, then how much less is Arizona willing to accept before seriously considering the Big 12?

"For a couple of million, I don't see people leaving," Robbins said. "... I think our total will definitely be higher than the Big 12. If I'm wrong about that, is it $5 million [less per year that forces schools to consider leavig], is it $7 million, is it $8 million, is it $10 million?"

Big 12 athletic directors believe their "all-in" number -- including revenue from the College Football Playoff, bowl games and the NCAA Tournament -- will be around $50 million annually in the new deal.
[...]
"I know what the Big 12's number is," Robbins added. "I just need to hear what the Pac-12's number is. Then I can make a decision."

He gives a deadline for GK:

"Back during the holidays when I was sitting around contemplating life, I said April 15. … I think that is a pretty good time frame for me. Everybody else does not see it that way. They think it should have been yesterday. A couple of weeks from now is certainly better than a month ago."

On expansion, he wants a deal first:

OK, so what about San Diego State and SMU? They have long been reported to be expansion candidates for a new Pac-12.

"We've got to have a deal before we think about expansion," Robbins said. "What I would predict, I see the strategy by the Big 12: You can get the Four Corners to go over to the Big 12 and the thing blows up. The Big Ten would be foolish not to scavenge the Oregons and Washingtons that got left behind."

It seems he isn't too excited about SDSU and SMU, and doesn't even want to talk about expansion until GK shows him the money.


Apparently the B1G was going to take USC and Oregon originally... But USC wanted a travel partner:

"USC started this whole thing [to move to the Big Ten]. I think UCLA was a reluctant follower in this whole thing. But [USC] needed a travel partner close by so it makes sense," Robbins explained. "If Oregon calls Washington up and says, 'I can double the amount of money you're getting; come with me to the Big Ten,' Washington is going to say, 'OK, I'm in.' They would love to have gone.

"When I heard it first, the deal was going to be USC-Oregon [to the Big Ten]. That makes sense. … Their TV market is not that big, [but] they play in different colored uniforms, and they win. That's where I would have started this thing off.

"I think Fox wanted to consolidate L.A. and not let anybody else in [with USC-UCLA]. I think it's brilliant. Well played."

Can the PAC survive if UW and Oregon bolt?

If the Four Corners stay put but Oregon and Washington ultimately bolt, will the Pac-12 survive with less than 10 teams?

"I've always thought yes. Can someone live without two legs? When you start taking an arm off, it depends on what arm it is," Robbins said.

"Oh, oh, I see! Running away, eh? You yellow bastards! Come back here and take what's coming to you! I'll bite your legs off!"



This part was very funny... And shows RR is blowing smoke and really doesn't know what he is talking about:

"We're the only one out there. I think the media companies know we're not going anywhere. We gotta have a deal," Robbins said. "Normally, we would just be starting this process, but because the Big 12 jumped out in front, they took $31.6 million -- which is what they were getting with Texas and Oklahoma -- and declared victory."
[...]
Editor's note: The $31.6 million figure is actually significantly higher than what the Big 12 was getting with Texas and Oklahoma in its last deal.

"It's the economy, stupid!"

The economy continues to struggle, and banks continue to close. This is important to the Pac-12's deal prospects. During its negotiations, Disney (owners of ESPN) and streamers have laid off employees. Robbins is particularly sensitive to the failed Silicon Valley Bank as a former professor at nearby Stanford.

"That's where you went to get your money [for start ups]," Robbins said of the bank. "Now, it's done. Now, they're talking about there's six other banks that could be done. If you're asking me to look [ahead], I think we ought to get the best deal we can get right now, which I think is going to be within the next couple of weeks."

He continued: "There are a lot of tech companies and some of the traditional analog people that have had to lay people off. I think that's part of it. The economy is not good, so maybe we did miss our window. If we waited 90 days, could we get a better deal? But I don't think anybody has the stomach for that."

And RR admits the Big 12 could get their attention even with a PAC deal that close to their money:

If the Pac-12 deal is close to what the Big 12 is getting, would Yormark consider weaponizing the $100 million he will have in the bank from the Texas-Oklahoma buyout as sort of a signing bonus?

"That is a good asset for them to make deals with," Robbins admitted.

RR says a pure streaming deal is a no-go...

Robbins said he has never heard that discussion within the conference. "No way. ... [You hear talk of] it's going to be all streaming. Nobody is going for that. Over 50%? No, I don't think so. I think that's too much. It's OK if it's 50-50. … You have to remember, guys our age, people that I went to high school with aren't going to want to deal with streaming.

"I don't think it will be more than 50%, but if it ended up 50%, I think it would be OK. But we are West Coast and we have to recruit the whole nation. If the football coaches come back and say, 'Are you out of your mind?' We're the final decision makers without a question, but we're going to heavily consult our ADs and coaches and all that stuff."

Therefore, a deal with ION TV must still be on the table.

[Uncle Ted]

Over 95% chance the PAC will survive and stay together!

Wasn't there like a 95% chance that Purdue would be in the sweet-16?

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[Green Monstah]

Scheer is an interesting dude. U of A blogger who is pro Big 12 and calls out Wilner a lot.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Scheer is an interesting dude. U of A blogger who is pro Big 12 and calls out Wilner a lot.

I’m not sure I would call him pro-big 12. But he certainly isn’t anti-big 12. He’s a straight shooter with a thick skin which is rare these days. I agree he is fascinating.

[Uncle Ted]

According the Andrew Marchand, NYPost:

- For PAC 12-2 to get to $300m/yr it will most likely be Apple. There are no reports of this happening, however. Apple is moving slow and may not give an answer by April 15th. It sounds like Apple is moving with caution, especially with college sports.

- The PAC 12-2 ESPN/ABC deal (~$31m/team/yr) is no longer on the table. An ESPN deal is not close as of right now.

- Amazon is still an option. Amazon just wants like a Friday night game, however. Which is kind of like they are doing with the NFL.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if President Nelson gets up at GC and says, "Our PAC 12-2 brothers and sisters need our help..." and asks for volunteers to join a rescue party. It doesn't sound good.

[USUC]

Uh oh, Endeavor has bought off Marchand now too. Good thing the Utah beat writers can still rely on Wilner and Canzano for unbiased coverage with no agenda.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Uh oh, Endeavor has bought off Marchand now too. Good thing the Utah beat writers can still rely on Wilner and Canzano for unbiased coverage with no agenda.

Lol.

Marchand is a great source. Can't wait to see the spin on this one.

[Uncle Ted]

UofU President Taylor Randall says everything is great with the PAC 12-2 and the new TV media contract:

https://espn700sports.com/espn-700-s...0bill-3-20-23/

[myboynoah]

According the Andrew Marchand, NYPost:

- For PAC 12-2 to get to $300m/yr it will most likely be Apple. There are no reports of this happening, however. Apple is moving slow and may not give an answer by April 15th. It sounds like Apple is moving with caution, especially with college sports.

- The PAC 12-2 ESPN/ABC deal (~$31m/team/yr) is no longer on the table. An ESPN deal is not close as of right now.

- Amazon is still an option. Amazon just wants like a Friday night game, however. Which is kind of like they are doing with the NFL.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if President Nelson gets up at GC and says, "Our PAC 12-2 brothers and sisters need our help..." and asks for volunteers to join a rescue party. It doesn't sound good.

Yeah, this guy summarizes the report and makes this point about Oregon.

Would Oregon really sign a GoR for less money than could be made elsewhere? Would the Ducks risk locking themselves up for years to come knowing the Big Ten might be waiting?

Oregon’s new president John Karl Scholz was a huge fan of B1G expansion when he was at Wisconsin. It’s unlikely his mindset magically changed when he went to Eugene.

As noted, we are not hearing from the Presidents or ADs of Oregon, Washington, Stanford. or Cal.

Wasn't this thing supposed to be wrapped up five days ago?

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[myboynoah]

UofU President Taylor Randall says everything is great with the PAC 12-2 and the new TV media contract:

https://espn700sports.com/espn-700-s...0bill-3-20-23/

At least they asked him if he is talking to the B12, and he talked about how much uofutah likes the PAC, so a punt. Of course he's had talks with the B12. It makes sense, and this is what people have been reporting. No big conspiracy here. Just people doing their jobs.

So no big surprise, uofutah would like for the PAC to stick together and the B12 has bult a nice conference and he has talked to the B12.

[myboynoah]

I'm not going to put out money to read Wilner's musings on the PAC future, so I don't know the details of the article, but thought it lol funny that his primer for the article says that GK was brought in to close an "acceptable" media right deal. This seams to have become the talking point for the PAC, just get something acceptable.

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[Uncle Ted]

I'm not going to put out money to read Wilner's musings on the PAC future, so I don't know the details of the article, but thought it lol funny that his primer for the article says that GK was brought in to close an "acceptable" media right deal. This seams to have become the talking point for the PAC, just get something acceptable.

What might be "acceptable" in a media deal for Utah, etc. in the Pac 12-2 might not be acceptable for Oregon and UW... So what if Oregon/UW after the media deal is announced bolt to the B1G (even for less of the B1G equal-sized pie piece)? The Pac 12-4 adds SMU and SDSU (and maybe Tulane and someone else) and they keep the PAC alive!

[Jeff Lebowski]

At least they asked him if he is talking to the B12, and he talked about how much uofutah likes the PAC, so a punt. Of course he's had talks with the B12. It makes sense, and this is what people have been reporting. No big conspiracy here. Just people doing their jobs.

So no big surprise, uofutah would like for the PAC to stick together and the B12 has bult a nice conference and he has talked to the B12.

You are obviously not a student of this dude:

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[myboynoah]

You are obviously not a student of this dude:

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Yeah, there is an orthodox element of PAC fandumb that cannot allow for the possibility of PAC schools talking to the B12.

So how much of a money/exposure deficit are PAC schools willing to tolerate in order to stick together? I bet WSU, OSU, and uofutah are all on the $6 million less per year/100% on streaming train. Arizona and CU are on the "not a penny less"/gotta be close to B12 exposure train. I wonder about ASU. Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal are on the "we need uneven income distribution and no exit penalty" train, because they are gone as soon as the B1G decides to expand its west coast footprint.