2013-2014 NFL Thread

[Joe Public]

Nice bootleg by Luck to likely seal a road win against the Niners.

[MarkGrace]

Dangeruss having himself a nice day

[CardiacCoug]

I wonder what the conversion percentage is on 4th-and-2. That would tell you what the average points are if you go for 2 points vs the 1 point conversion.

I've heard that in the NFL for years the success rate on 2-point conversions has been around 48% -- thus it makes statistical sense to just take extra point kick.

Found this article showing that on NFL 2-point conversions attempts, passing plays are successful 43% of the time, runs are successful 62% of the time. Seems like teams should probably just hand the ball off or try to get the QB free on the edge, since QB runs are highly successful on 2-point conversions.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...r-2-point.html

[CardiacCoug]

I would guess that it has to do with limited scoring chances per game and the relative likelihood of getting some points from a short FG vs. hoping to fall in the 65% on any given conversion attempt.

Sure, the coach opens himself to criticism on the 35% of chances where you don't get it. If he decides to punt or kick the FG every single time on 4th and 1 then the perception is that the coach made the "safe" decision.

And sure there are scenarios at the end of the game where kicking the FG is the right decision -- but first quarter in a scoreless game I don't see why there is even any question what the right decision is. Hearing a former NFL head coach talking like the safe and smart decision is to kick the FG is unbelievable to me. I don't get it.

[Joe Public]

Crazy to see Jordan Cameron catching TD passes in the NFL. As a BYU basketball player he wasn't much. He didn't even have much of a career at USC but he is a pretty dang good tight end now.

He just had a nice one to put the Browns ahead with less than a minute to go.

[smokymountainrain]

I haven't been able to watch the highlights, they're not showing them on the Redzone channel, but Ziggy is tearing it up. Two sacks and another tackle for loss.

Geez, in addition to the two sacks and one TFL, he leads the team with seven tackles and also has two hits on the QB. seven tackles from the DE is pretty much dominant.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I haven't been able to watch the highlights, they're not showing them on the Redzone channel, but Ziggy is tearing it up. Two sacks and another tackle for loss.

[Joe Public]

It will never cease to amaze me how willfully ignorant so many coaches are regarding fourth down decision statistics.

Carolina has it 4th and inches on the one yard line here in this Giants-Panthers game. Brian Billick is doing the color commentary and says something like "Here is where Ron Rivera might just make this decision based on emotion instead of reason and go for it."

On 4th-and-1 NFL teams convert 65% of the time over the past 12 years. If you're on the one-yard line and it's fourth and one, then that's an average of 4.5 points (0.65 x 7) if you go for it versus at most 3 points if you don't. Why on earth wouldn't the guys who get payed to make these important decisions run the math and almost always go for it in these situations in the first quarter especially?

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...th-down/19370/

I would guess that it has to do with limited scoring chances per game and the relative likelihood of getting some points from a short FG vs. hoping to fall in the 65% on any given conversion attempt.

[Flystripper]

Crazy to see Jordan Cameron catching TD passes in the NFL. As a BYU basketball player he wasn't much. He didn't even have much of a career at USC but he is a pretty dang good tight end now.

[scottie]

It will never cease to amaze me how willfully ignorant so many coaches are regarding fourth down decision statistics.

Carolina has it 4th and inches on the one yard line here in this Giants-Panthers game. Brian Billick is doing the color commentary and says something like "Here is where Ron Rivera might just make this decision based on emotion instead of reason and go for it."

On 4th-and-1 NFL teams convert 65% of the time over the past 12 years. If you're on the one-yard line and it's fourth and one, then that's an average of 4.5 points (0.65 x 7) if you go for it versus at most 3 points if you don't. Why on earth wouldn't the guys who get payed to make these important decisions run the math and almost always go for it in these situations in the first quarter especially?

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...th-down/19370/

I wonder what the conversion percentage is on 4th-and-2. That would tell you what the average points are if you go for 2 points vs the 1 point conversion.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

It looks like Rogers and McCarthy were arguing on the sidelines over it. Kicking a field goal inside the 1 has to be the dumbest thing that coaches commonly call.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

It will never cease to amaze me how willfully ignorant so many coaches are regarding fourth down decision statistics.

Carolina has it 4th and inches on the one yard line here in this Giants-Panthers game. Brian Billick is doing the color commentary and says something like "Here is where Ron Rivera might just make this decision based on emotion instead of reason and go for it."

On 4th-and-1 NFL teams convert 65% of the time over the past 12 years. If you're on the one-yard line and it's fourth and one, then that's an average of 4.5 points (0.65 x 7) if you go for it versus at most 3 points if you don't. Why on earth wouldn't the guys who get payed to make these important decisions run the math and almost always go for it in these situations in the first quarter especially?

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...th-down/19370/

Mike McCarthy just elected to kick the field goal just inside the 1 yard line. Totally idiotic.

I want to see the stats on drives that start inside your own 3 yard line. I imagine a majority go 3 and out, then you likely have field position inside of the 50. And that's if you don't convert the 4th in the first place.

[scottie]

Cincinnati with 4 turnovers over their last 9 plays.

[TripletDaddy]

I would have preferred to double up on my misery index today but looks like I have to wait until tomorrow to watch the Raiders get dismantled by Denver on MNF.

Maybe I can bridge the gap by sticking my finger into a pencil sharpener today. Or giving myself a paper cut.

[CardiacCoug]

It will never cease to amaze me how willfully ignorant so many coaches are regarding fourth down decision statistics.

Carolina has it 4th and inches on the one yard line here in this Giants-Panthers game. Brian Billick is doing the color commentary and says something like "Here is where Ron Rivera might just make this decision based on emotion instead of reason and go for it."

On 4th-and-1 NFL teams convert 65% of the time over the past 12 years. If you're on the one-yard line and it's fourth and one, then that's an average of 4.5 points (0.65 x 7) if you go for it versus at most 3 points if you don't. Why on earth wouldn't the guys who get payed to make these important decisions run the math and almost always go for it in these situations in the first quarter especially?

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...th-down/19370/