Official 49ers Thread

[Donuthole]

Lol!
http://cps-static.rovicorp.com/3/JPG...er=allrovi.com

[Walter Sobchak]

Crazier fact: Denver is 0-2 against teams from the NFC West in the Super Bowl, and has lost those two games by a combined margin of 98-18.

Too soon?

kaep_kiss_ring.jpg

[Color Me Badd Fan]

LaMichael James was cut yesterday. The only guy left on the roster from the 2012 draft is Joe Looney. They selected the normal amount of players, it's not like they traded away half their picks for one player. All in all, it has to be one of the worst drafts any team has ever had.

On a positive note, in one week, the 2014 draft class compiled more snaps than the 2012 draft class took in 2012, 2013 and the first game of 2014 (I don't really know if this is true, but it probably is). The rookies were great -- especially Carlos Hyde and Dontae Johnson. Jimmie Ward, Carlos Hyde, Aaron Lynch, Bruce Ellington and Dontae Johnson all played meaningful snaps. Additionally, you have to consider that Marcus Martin was inactive due to his knee cap injury, and he's a guy that I feel will definitely be starting next year in place of Iupati. Then you have Brandon Thomas who was a potential late first rounder who they drafted in the 3rd because of an ACL tear.

My notes on the game against Dallas:

1. Mike Iupati absolutely does not deserve a new contract for what he'll probably be seeking. Crabtree and Aldon Smith will be the priorities and they may not be able to resign both of them, so I imagine that Iupati is going to get the Goldson treatment and receive a token contract offer that they know he won't accept. I simply don't see him on the roster next year, especially when you have Marcus Martin waiting in the wings who looked really good in the preseason before his dislocated knee cap injury.

2. Perhaps Dallas has a great o-line (I think they do) and perhaps the team was playing a vanilla nickel for most of the game, but the pass rush was not great, especially from Lemonier and Skuta. So far, the Aaron Lynch pick is shockingly panning out -- he had a tipped pass -- and I think we'll be seeing more of him during Smith's suspension.

3. The player on defense the team missed the most was Navarro Bowman. The team plays a lot of nickel, like they've done the past few years, and they only have two true d-linemen in the game. That means the two ILBs need to be really great run support LBs. Willis is certainly up to the job, but Wilhoite doesn't appear to be. I think Chris Borland, yet another rookie, is going to be seeing more playing time.

4. Carlos Hyde looked awesome. What a great pick by the management. He's a perfect fit for the team and he fills a need because Gore is definitely showing some age.

5. The passing game looked better on Sunday. Next to the quality of your players, the next biggest factor determining who wins it all are injuries combined with depth at the position where the starter is injured. If you suffer an injury at a position where you have no depth, then the team is in trouble. We clearly saw this last year with Crabtree. I believe the Seahawks would have gotten along just fine if Richard Sherman got hurt last year because Thurmond or Maxwell could have ably filled in. Earl Thomas would have still been roaming around to help out. But in the case of Crabtree, there was no one behind him that could have made any other NFL roster, it was a mess. Thank goodness there's depth this year at that position.

6. Kilgore looked good and so did Jonathan Martin filling in for Anthony Davis. I can't say the same for Looney. I'm not sure if they're bringing Alex Boone back this week against that terrible Bears' defense, but they need him back quickly. I don't think going from Goodwin to Kilgore is a big deal, in fact it might be a slight improvement. But Boone to Looney is a huge dropoff. I also don't know how Jonathan Martin will holdup against a non-terrible d-line, so I'd like to see Davis back soon. I can't wait to see Hyde run behind the full offensive line. Finally, when Marcus Martin comes back, I wouldn't be surprised to see him take snaps away from Iupati.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

The good news:

1. The defense has probably never looked better since 2011.

2. Aldon Smith is back and Aaron Lynch looks like the steal of the draft. Both of them together were causing huge problems for Eli Manning yesterday.

3. Chris Borland looks like a very adequate replacement for Patrick Willis.

4. Antoine Bethea was the best free agent acquisition for probably any team this last offseason.

5. Marcus Martin looks like the longterm center.

The bad news:

1. While the 49ers appear to be shaping into one of the better defenses going into the homestretch, they also have one of the worst offenses.

2. The lion's share of the injuries and suspensions have been on the defensive side of the ball, not the offensive. Aldon Smith didn't come back until yesterday. The two starting middle linebackers have been out for weeks, one is done for the season and the other one still hasn't played a down this year. The secondary has been riddled with injuries, Brock, Ward and Culliver have all been out multiple games and now Ward is out for the year. The offense has been remarkably healthy, yet the production has been terrible.

3. This might be kind of good news, but I don't think Kaepernick is the problem, it's Greg Roman. How many plays has Kaepernick pulled out of his ass since he became the starting QB two years ago? Did Greg Roman have anything to do with that 4th down conversion last week? Here's what I see -- two different starting QBs who have fairly similar production under Roman. The only receivers that have any production are the types that have a knack for getting open regardless of system -- e.g. Anquan Boldin who has produced under multiple QBs in multiple systems. But the same problems have persisted since 2011-- cruddy red zone production and a lack of development of an intermediate passing game aside from balls going to Boldin.

4. The worst one -- the o-line has regressed tremendously. I still love Staley and I really like Marcus Martin. Boone has played like dog shit and Iupati is a shell of what he was two years ago. Anthony Davis seems to need a competent guard next to him or he also plays poorly like he did in 2011. Is Looney any worse than Boone? Can that injured guy they drafted out of Clemson that was a late first round prospect that they grabbed in the third play guard next year?

[Non Sequitur]

I thought I'd never say this, but I kind of wish we hadn't gotten rid of Alex Smith. Someone needs to tell Kaepernick that not every pass doesn't have to be a fastball.

[Sizzle]

SF needs to make it to the championship game again this year if for no other reason than to limit the number of interviews Vic Fangio gets. That guy has been amazing with the amount of talent he's lost.

Don't underestimate the impact of Boone missing training camp. OL needs time to gel, especially with a new center.

Also, Vernon Davis? Where'd ya go? Talk about a disappearing act...

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Six games left, four at home and one in Oakland. So, basically five home games. On top of that, the Arizona game is in the last week and they very well could have the #1 seed wrapped up at that point. The Packers and Lions still have to play each other and they both have to play the Pats. Presumably the Eagles and Cowboys will each drop at least one more game. Arizona has beaten all of them except for Green Bay who they didn't play. I'm not sure how a tiebreaker with Green Bay would work, but AZ right now is 7-0 in the conference and GB is 5-3, so AZ also probably holds the tiebreaker against GB. I think AZ can drop 3 games and still get the #1 seed.

So, I'm hoping 11-5, but I wouldn't be surprised at 9-7 -- dropping both games to Seattle and the last game against AZ (if AZ actually has something to play for).

That said, this is a great year to be a wild card in the NFC. The division winners out of the NFC East and South will both be terrible. I don't think AZ is a particularly great team -- decent defense, well-coached and good receivers, but enormous problems at QB. We're not talking 2013 Seattle home advantage in the playoffs either. Green Bay is the only likely NFC playoff team that scares the hell out of me. I'm hoping that Detroit can hold on and win that division and the Niners can slide into the #5 spot.

I'm putting the cart before the horse here. The defense is going to be great down the stretch. But Greg Roman is still the OC and I still can't make heads or tails out of Kaepernick (he is 4-2 in the playoffs however and has been very competitive in his two losses). The offense still hasn't scored a TD in the 4th quarter.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

BTW, the 2013 draft class is looking pretty below average at this point. One great player in Reid, a bust in Vance McDonald and we still don't know what we have in Carradine. Carradine has only recently been getting snaps, but he looks promising. I guess we have to be happy with one great player and one solid starter.

But the 2014 draft class has been incredible -- Aaron Lynch, Chris Borland, Marcus Martin, Dontae Johnson. Not to mention contributions out of Carlos Hyde and Jimmy Ward. Then there's still Brandon Thomas out of Clemson. I can't believe how good Lynch is, the steal of the 2014 draft.

[Sizzle]

Six games left, four at home and one in Oakland. So, basically five home games. On top of that, the Arizona game is in the last week and they very well could have the #1 seed wrapped up at that point. The Packers and Lions still have to play each other and they both have to play the Pats. Presumably the Eagles and Cowboys will each drop at least one more game. Arizona has beaten all of them except for Green Bay who they didn't play. I'm not sure how a tiebreaker with Green Bay would work, but AZ right now is 7-0 in the conference and GB is 5-3, so AZ also probably holds the tiebreaker against GB. I think AZ can drop 3 games and still get the #1 seed.

So, I'm hoping 11-5, but I wouldn't be surprised at 9-7 -- dropping both games to Seattle and the last game against AZ (if AZ actually has something to play for).

That said, this is a great year to be a wild card in the NFC. The division winners out of the NFC East and South will both be terrible. I don't think AZ is a particularly great team -- decent defense, well-coached and good receivers, but enormous problems at QB. We're not talking 2013 Seattle home advantage in the playoffs either. Green Bay is the only likely NFC playoff team that scares the hell out of me. I'm hoping that Detroit can hold on and win that division and the Niners can slide into the #5 spot.

I'm putting the cart before the horse here. The defense is going to be great down the stretch. But Greg Roman is still the OC and I still can't make heads or tails out of Kaepernick (he is 4-2 in the playoffs however and has been very competitive in his two losses). The offense still hasn't scored a TD in the 4th quarter.

If I'm a betting man, I'd bet that Detroit loses three more games, at New England, at Green Bay and one of the games against Chicago. That has the finish at 10-6, and potentially out of the playoffs. As much as it pains me to say, I also think Dallas beats Philly twice, which puts the Cowboys firmly in and Philly on the bubble.

Arizona has four realistically losable games left on their schedule: at SF, at Seattle, at home against Seattle, and at home against Kansas City. Heck, the way the Rams are capable of playing, don't count that as a gimme game either. The point is, there is still a lot of football left to be played, but for SF to be sure they're in the playoffs, they're probably going to have to get to 11-5. Even that might not be good enough depending on what happens with Green Bay/Detroit and Philly/Dallas. I could see the NFC West putting three teams in the playoffs this year, though it's more likely that it's only two and possible that it could be only one (Arizona? seriously?) That loss against St. Louis at home really stings, especially to lose it fumbling on the one down three when it really should've been a win.

Down the stretch we come...

[DrumNFeather]

SF needs to make it to the championship game again this year if for no other reason than to limit the number of interviews Vic Fangio gets. That guy has been amazing with the amount of talent he's lost.

Don't underestimate the impact of Boone missing training camp. OL needs time to gel, especially with a new center.

Also, Vernon Davis? Where'd ya go? Talk about a disappearing act...

Vernon has the perfect defense to get well against this weekend, and I'd bet he does.

[Sizzle]

BTW, the 2013 draft class is looking pretty below average at this point. One great player in Reid, a bust in Vance McDonald and we still don't know what we have in Carradine. Carradine has only recently been getting snaps, but he looks promising. I guess we have to be happy with one great player and one solid starter.

But the 2014 draft class has been incredible -- Aaron Lynch, Chris Borland, Marcus Martin, Dontae Johnson. Not to mention contributions out of Carlos Hyde and Jimmy Ward. Then there's still Brandon Thomas out of Clemson. I can't believe how good Lynch is, the steal of the 2014 draft.

McDonald isn't a bust. Disappointment, yes, but I wouldn't call him a bust. He's a decent blocker, but is non-existent in the passing game. I had thought he was more known for being a receiver at Rice, but re-reading his draft profile, maybe I was wrong:

What he brings:
McDonald has trouble separating from man coverage at times because he's tight changing directions, but his burst is impressive both when attacking the seam and after the catch. There are concerns about his hands after an underwhelming Senior Bowl week, but he's not afraid to work the middle and can make tough catches. He just needs to become more consistent in that area.

How he fits:
We knew the 49ers would address this position early in the draft with the loss in free agency of Delanie Walker to Tennessee. More than any other offense in the NFL, they love multi-tight end packages and the ability to be exotic in personnel groupings. While McDonald doesn't have the athleticism and big-play capability of Vernon Davis, he can certainly help as either an in-line or motion player. He can also be a good contributor in the short-to-intermediate passing game. What may be a sneaky strength of this pick is that it will allow the 49ers to use multiple tight ends to force defenses to play sub packages -- then they can come back and run the ball. Those are the kinds of things this coaching staff loves to do.

Also, don't dismiss Quentin Dial from 2013. He's contributing this year, and played better against the Giants than he did against New Orleans. Carradine was a swing for the fences, but also a calculated one. He may still pan out. The one that is disappointing is Corey Lemonier. I liked his film and thought he'd see more meaningful time with Smith's suspension. But it was Lynch who stood up and took the rains, so the Lemonier pick while disappointing is easier to swallow.

Yes, the 2012 draft blows, and 2014 appears to be a very good one (though not the home run that 2011 was because of a lack of talent at the top) but I'll take it. So for those grading at home, you've got 2011 that was great, 2012 that was awful, 2013 that was average (you get a Pro-Bowler at Safety, you're happy) and 2014 looks to be above average. You've got to take that.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

McDonald isn't a bust. Disappointment, yes, but I wouldn't call him a bust. He's a decent blocker, but is non-existent in the passing game. I had thought he was more known for being a receiver at Rice, but re-reading his draft profile, maybe I was wrong:



Also, don't dismiss Quentin Dial from 2013. He's contributing this year, and played better against the Giants than he did against New Orleans. Carradine was a swing for the fences, but also a calculated one. He may still pan out. The one that is disappointing is Corey Lemonier. I liked his film and thought he'd see more meaningful time with Smith's suspension. But it was Lynch who stood up and took the rains, so the Lemonier pick while disappointing is easier to swallow.

Yes, the 2012 draft blows, and 2014 appears to be a very good one (though not the home run that 2011 was because of a lack of talent at the top) but I'll take it. So for those grading at home, you've got 2011 that was great, 2012 that was awful, 2013 that was average (you get a Pro-Bowler at Safety, you're happy) and 2014 looks to be above average. You've got to take that.

I think 2014 is much more.than merely above average. It's great. Lynch looks like a top ten talent and they got him in the 5th round. Borland might win Defensive Rookie of the Year and I don't think he played in the first five games. Martin is the long term starter at center. Dontae Johnston is the nickel back now and has played. The Jimmie Ward pick remains a headscratcher, but he was playing, though not particularly well.

Then there's Carlos Hyde and Brandon Thomas. Supposedly, Thomas was a first round talent.

I forgot about Dial. Carradine will probably pan out as at least a decent starter. So they've got a pro-bowler, an average starter and a rotation.guy in Dial. All in all, not terrible.

[Sizzle]

I think 2014 is much more.than merely above average. It's great. Lynch looks like a top ten talent and they got him in the 5th round. Borland might win Defensive Rookie of the Year and I don't think he played in the first five games. Martin is the long term starter at center. Dontae Johnston is the nickel back now and has played. The Jimmie Ward pick remains a headscratcher, but he was playing, though not particularly well.

Then there's Carlos Hyde and Brandon Thomas. Supposedly, Thomas was a first round talent.

I forgot about Dial. Carradine will probably pan out as at least a decent starter. So they've got a pro-bowler, an average starter and a rotation.guy in Dial. All in all, not terrible.

I call it above average because it lacks the star power. Lynch has been the steal of the draft, but I'd like to see him perform at this level longer before I'm calling him a star. Borland may be the ROY, but if he, Willis and Bowman are all healthy, who is the odd man out? Willis and Bowman are both DPOY quality players and I don't see Borland supplanting either of them (though maybe he does if either doesn't return to pre-injury form). Honestly, the Niners are as stacked at LB as any team as I can remember. Willis and Bowman are arguably the two top middle backers in the game when healthy. Aldon Smith is a top 3 pass rusher. You've got Lynch and Brooks on the opposite side and then Borland as a back-up. Wilhoitte would probably start for half the league.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I call it above average because it lacks the star power. Lynch has been the steal of the draft, but I'd like to see him perform at this level longer before I'm calling him a star. Borland may be the ROY, but if he, Willis and Bowman are all healthy, who is the odd man out? Willis and Bowman are both DPOY quality players and I don't see Borland supplanting either of them (though maybe he does if either doesn't return to pre-injury form). Honestly, the Niners are as stacked at LB as any team as I can remember. Willis and Bowman are arguably the two top middle backers in the game when healthy. Aldon Smith is a top 3 pass rusher. You've got Lynch and Brooks on the opposite side and then Borland as a back-up. Wilhoitte would probably start for half the league.

They have too much money wrapped up in Bowman and Willis. They're very good players, two all-pros and Willis is a probable Hall of Famer. But it's interesting how the defense is playing well with both out. Also, both were healthy in 2012 in the postseason while the defense was getting picked apart. It could be the middle lb position in a 3-4 is the most insignificant position on the defense. I always recall those.great Cowboy teams of the early 90s paid little attention to the LB position in general and loaded up in the secondary and d-line. Aldon Smith and Justin Smith are significantly more important than Bowman and Willis.

So I think they need to decide between Willis and Bowman. Willis is easily one of the top ten Niners ever and his injury wasn't catastrophic like Bowman's. Bowman is three years younger, but that knee may put him on par with Willis when you're looking at how much longer they'll play.

[Sizzle]

They have too much money wrapped up in Bowman and Willis. They're very good players, two all-pros and Willis is a probable Hall of Famer. But it's interesting how the defense is playing well with both out. Also, both were healthy in 2012 in the postseason while the defense was getting picked apart. It could be the middle lb position in a 3-4 is the most insignificant position on the defense. I always recall those.great Cowboy teams of the early 90s paid little attention to the LB position in general and loaded up in the secondary and d-line. Aldon Smith and Justin Smith are significantly more important than Bowman and Willis.

So I think they need to decide between Willis and Bowman. Willis is easily one of the top ten Niners ever and his injury wasn't catastrophic like Bowman's. Bowman is three years younger, but that knee may put him on par with Willis when you're looking at how much longer they'll play.

He's the key to the defense IMO. You look at all the other players that have come and gone or been injured. In the secondary over the last three years essentially every started has been replaced (Goldson, wHitner, Carlos Rodgers, Brown) and every linebacker has been out. Even at the DT position we've rotated. But when Cowboy was banged up, the defense really suffered. I'm terrified of what will happen when he decides to hang em up. He's probably among the top 5 under appreciated players I can ever remember, not just in SF, but in football.