Lance and the pave (aka cobbles)

[creekster]

I have read LA commetn at least three times about how the cobbles could make a HUGE difference in the race. He is betting on blowing things up a little bit in that stage, if he is to be beleived.

Do you believe him? And, if he tries and fails, what will that do to his chance for success in the overall? Paves are unpleasant, but being so early in the race I think only a mechanical is likely to have a big impact on a GC rival.

[mtnbiker]

I think they're huge, because Contador has _never_ raced on them. That little dude is going to be pretty squirrely on the cobbles, and might just crash out. That's way too early in the tour to try to take the yellow jersey and keep it all the way to the end, because it's just too hard on the team to do that, but it could certainly eliminate some people. Remember a few years ago in Paris-Roubaix when Hincapie's steerer tube broke, and he crashed, breaking his collar bone?

[bluegoose]

Everyone keeps talking about this, and he/they may be onto something.

Last night on a tour preview show on vs, they reviewed that stage early in last years tour where the front 10 or 15 guys gapped the rest of the field. AC found himself with an immediate 45 second deficit, and that was just a cross wind on good roads. If the conditions are as bad as anticipated, I wouldn't be surprised to see a gap open with some of the peleton losing a couple of minutes.

[creekster]

ANd remeber these are, as I understand it, belgian and french paves (I dont recall how to get that accent on the 'e') menaing htey are shaped stones set in dirt. They are not set in concrete or pavement and so can be very uneven. It also seems to me that the peloton could chunk the roads up pertty badly, so you might not want to be at the back as it plows through. It might look like a spring classic out there, except in hot, dry weather instead of cold, muddy weather.

Even so, and I grant that AC will find it difficult, it seems unlikely to me that short of a mechaincal (such as Hincapie's steerer tube) the gap will be so big as to cause probelms on the GC. Last year's 45 second gap on AC is the very reason why. He will be HYPER about not letting that happen again.

Either way the stage shoudl be a lot of fun to watch.

[John McClain]

And if there is any moisture at all that day, the pave will be like ice cubes. Slicker than snot. They could make a very large difference in the stage results if the weather is at all uncooperative.