Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

BYU 2020-2021

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Pelado
    replied
    Not a great start. Give up an offensive rebound and then turn it over on the first offensive possession.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post


    According to ESPN's BPI tool as of today (Feb 8):

    BYU has a 22.6% chance to win tonight at home against Gonzaga (8.5 point predicted margin)
    Their projected conference record is 8.7 - 3.3
    They have a 0.2% chance of winning the regular season conference championship
    Chance of making the round of 32 - 52.3%
    Chance of making the Sweet 16 - 20.9%
    Chance of making the Elite 8 - 7.4%
    Chance of making the Final 4 - 2.6%
    Chance of making the Championship game - 0.8%
    Chance of winning the Championship - 0.2%

    Gonzaga still has the second highest likelihood of winning the national title (21.2%) behind Baylor (31.3%). Others above 5%:

    Houston (7.0%)
    Iowa (6.3%)
    Illinois (5.0%)

    Anyone else planning to watch the game tonight?
    According to ESPN's BPI tool as of today (Feb 17):

    BYU has a 84.8% chance to win tomorrow against Pacific (10.4 point predicted margin)
    Their projected conference record is 8.5 - 3.5
    They have a <0.1% chance of winning the regular season conference championship
    Chance of making the round of 32 - 44.3%
    Chance of making the Sweet 16 - 15.8%
    Chance of making the Elite 8 - 5.4%
    Chance of making the Final 4 - 1.9%
    Chance of making the Championship game - 0.6%
    Chance of winning the Championship - 0.2%

    Gonzaga still has the second highest likelihood of winning the national title (25.4%) behind Baylor (29.4%). Others above 5%:

    Iowa (8.3%)
    Houston (6.2%)

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by jay santos View Post

    I like small ball. I think for Rose, he might be a 5. But, I like his role right now. I was probably overstating my point to contrast with a lot of people saying he'd play the 3 at BYU. I don't ever see him being quick enough to play the 3 effectively for BYU.
    That's fair. With the composition of this year's preseason roster, it seemed like there were several who could only play the 5 while Lohner seemed like he might have more flexibility. I like him a lot at the 4.

    Leave a comment:


  • jay santos
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post



    Are you still feeling that Lohner's best position now is the 5?

    I like small ball. I think for Rose, he might be a 5. But, I like his role right now. I was probably overstating my point to contrast with a lot of people saying he'd play the 3 at BYU. I don't ever see him being quick enough to play the 3 effectively for BYU.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Inspired by Napper's excellent breakdown, I'm taking a look at my preseason expectations, too.

    Originally posted by jay santos View Post
    Interesting team. A lot better than what it looked like six months ago. It appears to be at least an average BYU team. #3 in WCC, #50 in the nation type team. It will be fun to see how these new guys do. I think Lohner will play the 4 and 5 at BYU. I think the 5 is his best position right now.
    Are you still feeling that Lohner's best position now is the 5?

    Originally posted by Pelado View Post

    Absolutely. It should be fun to see how the roster develops, who steps up, and how they all fit together. There seem to be lots of quality pieces. Here's a shot in the dark:
    PG Averette (25) Barcelo (10) Wade (5)
    SG Barcelo (15) Harding (10) Johnson (10) Knell (5)
    SF Harding (15) Baxter (10) George (10) Lohner (5)
    PF Baxter (15) Lohner (15) Lowell (10)
    C Haarms (15) Harward (10) Lowell (10) Lee (5)








    I feel like I might be undervaluing Lowell and Harward with this allocation. If they go big more, I could see Harding's minutes coming at the SG spot at the expense of Johnson/Knell and maybe even Barcelo.

    The playing roster will probably be more compressed - probably won't have 10 different guys getting double-digit minutes.

    I'm probably higher on Knell than I have any reason to be.
    Here's a comparison between my preseason projection and the actual usage per game. I calculated the Actual column by taking the player's total minutes in the year and dividing by 20 games. You may notice that the total of the averages (202.8) does not equal 200 minutes (40 minutes x 5 players). The reason for that seems to be how they count the minutes for each player in each game.
    Projected Actual Variance
    Averette 25 27.3 +2.3
    Barcello 25 31.5 +6.5
    Harding 25 22.0 -3.0
    Baxter 25 1.4 -23.6
    Lowell 20 2.2 -17.8
    Lohner 20 21.0 +1.0
    Haarms 15 19.4 +4.4
    Harward 10 16.7 +6.7
    Johnson 10 17.5 +7.5
    George 10 12.2 +2.2
    Wade 5 1.9 -3.1
    Knell 5 15.9 +10.9
    Lee 5 12.3 +7.3
    Erickson 0 1.0 +1.0
    Warr 0 0.2 +0.2
    Pearson 0 0.3 +0.3
    I was obviously way off on Baxter and Lowell, not anticipating that they would both be injured. Their injuries caused me to underestimate the minutes for several others - especially the bigs. Lee has played much more than I expected (and more than I think he's deserved), as have Harward and Haarms.

    In preseason, I thought I was high on Knell. But I wasn't nearly as high on him as the coaches have been - almost 11 minutes more per game than I projected. Barcello and Johnson are also racking up a lot more minutes than I thought. Lohner is right about where I thought he'd be, but I expect his average minutes per game to grow more through the end of the season - same with George.

    What I'm most surprised at is how many guys are playing more minutes that I projected - everyone but the injured, Harding, and Wade. I expected the strength of this team to be its size. The injuries to Baxter and Lowell didn't just clear space for the other bigs to get more minutes, they're also causing the team to play smaller, getting more game time for guards and wings.

    I like the recent lineup changes. I think George and Lohner have more upside than most everyone else on the roster and getting them quality minutes will improve the team for this season and years to come.

    Averette plays a high-risk style on both sides of the ball that tends to aggravate me. It's resulted in plenty of turnovers on the offensive side and plenty of opponents' layups on the defensive end. Aside from Barcello, though, there's not really anyone else who can really be trusted with ballhandling duties. So his minutes probably can't go down, but I would really like him to improve his judgment. I don't expect him to return for a second senior year.

    I've been disappointed with Harding. I was hopeful that he'd take a step forward this year as a scorer. He seems a bit too timid, especially against very athletic teams.

    On Haarms, similar to Averette, I don't think he'll return next year. I'm surprised that I projected him at just 15 minutes. I guess my thinking was that he was going to exclusively play the 5 and with the UVU transfers who would also be eating minutes there, he would have limited floor time. I definitely did not foresee Lee starting alongside Haarms.

    I didn't really think about Barcello coming back for next year until Napper mentioned it. The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is to happen. I don't see him getting drafted, so if he wants to play professionally, it would probably have to be in Europe - which may not be open for awhile due to Covid. Additionally, his sister is coming to Provo. Him sticking around another year doesn't seem that far-fetched, especially if he hasn't graduated yet. Even if he has graduated, he could potentially start a graduate program.

    I flip-flop on Johnson and Knell. Johnson seems to be able to create shots and play defense better than Knell. They're pretty close in season 3pfg%, but it seems like Knell has been more reliable from distance lately. Having a reliable shooter from distance on the floor is really important. It probably doesn't make much sense for both to be on the floor together, so it's likely an either-or for those guys.

    Harward has become a pretty reliable low-block scorer when he's not committing obvious offensive fouls. He's also somewhat adept at drawing charging calls. I'd like to see him get more minutes and post possessions, but he does have a tendency to hold onto the ball too long, allowing a double team to come and force a turnover.

    Again, until Napper mentioned it, I hadn't thought of either Baxter or Lowell calling it quits. I'm hoping, obviously, that both have full recoveries and are medically cleared to play. I haven't heard anything that would make me think that either would throw in the towel, but I guess it's possible. I was thinking during the Gonzaga game how nice it would have been to have Baxter available. I think he would have been able to guard Timme a lot better than anyone else did, and he might have created some mismatch problems on the offensive side, too. He could have been the difference between victory and defeat in that game, just as I think he was in the win against Gonzaga last season.

    With Lowell, I feel like I still don't know what he's really capable of since he was getting limited minutes due to his prior injury and is now unavailable. I do think my prior projection of him playing 10 minutes per game at the 5 was a bit silly, even if he had been healthy. I'm not sure if any of the 44 minutes he actually played was at the 5.

    Based on what I know now, here's a combination of what I expect and what I'd like to see going forward:
    PG Averette - 25 Barcello - 15
    SG Barcello - 16 Johnson - 13 Knell - 11
    SF George - 18 Harding - 18 Johnson - 4
    PF Lohner - 25 Haarms - 10 George - 5
    C Haarms - 15 Harward - 20 Lee - 5

    Leave a comment:


  • Goatnapper'96
    replied
    Originally posted by Goatnapper'96 View Post
    The only lingering question in this longest of offseason is whether or not Lohner plays next year. If Utah denies his LOI release and he has to sit a year perhaps BYU goes after another transfer, but if that is the case the transfer will have to sit as well. So the only material question is whether or not Lohner plays.

    If he does I think this is your rotation:

    Starters:

    1.) Averette
    2.) Barcello
    3.) Harding
    4.) Baxter
    5.) Haarms

    Off the bench you get:

    Spencer Johnson at the 2, Caleb Lohner at the 3 and 4, Wyatt Lowell at the 3 and 4, Harward at the 5. If Lohner is not eligible replace Lohner with Gideon George. You might get some minutes for Jessie Wade at the 1 if Pope becomes convinced Wade will be in his rotation the following year but for the most part when Averette is not on the court Barcello will play the 1. I hope BYU redshirts Kolby Lee while Ericson and Knell see mop up minutes.

    This is an interesting BYU team. I think it has legitimate actual depth but no real stars/go to players. I doubt anybody plays more than 28 mpg and I think the 9th guy will play 16 so a lot of guys will be in the rotation for significant amounts of time. I like BYU teams where the starters who served missions are outnumbered by the starters who did not. Things often go well those years.

    I really like Mark Pope as a coach.
    So now as we get to crunch time the actual starting lineup is:

    Barcello
    Averette
    Gorgeous George
    Lohner
    Haarms

    It has been a year that if nothing else caused me to really think Pope has it together. Last year was an "epic" BYU caliber team in that it legitimately might have made it to the second weekend of the tourney. BYU has had two other teams that good in its history. After graduating 5 seniors and most of his productivity Pope essentially rebuilds his roster and cobbles together a team that is looking like it will be in a position to conceivably advance to the round of 32- which for BYU is a great season. This year should be better than the post Jimmer year, although perhaps not by a huge amount, but it is significantly better than Frank Arnold's swan song. Now, times are different and the landscape of college basketball makes quickly rebuilding a program a far less daunting task than it was in 1981 but the point is even after graduating that much productivity Pope has put a good product together- and as far as I can tell he is doing it without any real offensive star power.

    This will be a different off season. I don't know if Baxter or Lowell will hang it up and medically retire given their injury history of the past two years but as far as I can tell most of next year's roster spots are spoken for. I figure both Averette and Haarms will move on- but I expect Barcello to return for one more season. He won't count against the scholarship allocation of 13. That remains the following scholarship players:

    JRs- (5)
    Harward
    Lee
    Harding
    Gorgeous George
    Baxter (?)

    SOs- (3)
    Lowell (?)
    Knell
    Johnson

    FR- (4)
    Ericson
    Lohner
    Traore
    Stewart

    I figure the highest priority is signing another ball handler who will be the heir apparent floor general when Barcello moves on and I expect that to be a transfer with more than 1 year of eligibility remaining. That would be #13 scholarship unless somebody moves on or either Baxter or Lowell hang it up for good. Something will happen that will surprise us, and to be honest I expect either Lowell or Baxter to be done, but this off season could be quite a bit more quiet on the transfer front. I am still wondering if Isaac Johnson comes to Provo now or later but my guess is he gets there someday. But this year Pope has a different challenge than rebuilding his roster- he now needs to develop players that appear talented into more alpha type offensive players in Lohner and Gorgeous George. This is a good team but there is only so far a club with Barcello as its top scorer can go. Next year if Lohner and George can make that step and be consistent with it- BYU could make a step forward from this year's club.

    I still like Pope a lot.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlueK
    replied
    BYU rankings update:

    Sagarin:27
    NET: 30
    ESPN BPI: 30
    KenPom: 33

    Kenpom finally caught up with the others. It takes a long time to catch up to reality when it guesses wrong on a team in the preseason. Other than that it's a fine system.

    The bracket matrix currently gives BYU an 8:

    http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

    BYU's profile in terms of its record against the quadrants is also pretty solid:

    http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2021/net-nitty

    Leave a comment:


  • Jeff Lebowski
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post
    What was the spread?

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    10.5. It kept bouncing between 9-11 pts in the last 30-40 seconds.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post
    I'd like to see them try to establish the post a bit more in the second half. But Harward needs to recognize the double-team coming earlier to take advantage of the open guy.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    I saw that Haarms, Harward, and Lee combined to go 1 for 3 against Gonzaga. That's not quite what I had in mind for establishing the post. They wouldn't have necessarily even had to score out of the post very much if they had been effective passing out of the post. Alas, neither came to fruition.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Wow. Vegas knows how to set that spread.
    What was the spread?

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • Jeff Lebowski
    replied
    Wow. Vegas knows how to set that spread.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post
    And just like that, BYU makes a run to cut it to 14.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    Down 11 with 50 seconds left.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by Pelado View Post
    Feels that way. That was not a good 4 minutes for BYU. They were within 12, now down 21.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
    And just like that, BYU makes a run to cut it to 14.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • Pelado
    replied
    Originally posted by LiveCoug View Post
    And I think we are outta runs. Dang.

    I miss last years team
    Feels that way. That was not a good 4 minutes for BYU. They were within 12, now down 21.

    Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

    Leave a comment:


  • LiveCoug
    replied
    And I think we are outta runs. Dang.

    I miss last years team

    Leave a comment:

Working...
X