Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[frank ryan]

Michael McFaul (U.S. ambassador to Russia during much of the Obama administration) is teaching an excellent class I’m taking. Last evening, he and the two other instructors spoke about Ukraine. McFaul gave some security reasons why the U.S. needs to fully support Ukraine (there were moral and other reasons as well that I’ll not include). None of these are surprising but the quick summary he provided may be useful when discussing this with friends. In brief:

If Ukraine wins:
--China will be more deterred as it will be apparent the costs of a Taiwan invasion will be catastrophic with, at best, an uncertain outcome
--Democratic movements in many countries (e.g., Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and perhaps even Russia) will be strengthened/emboldened
--The end of Putinism and hope for Russia

If Ukraine loses:
--NATO allies will be nervous that they’re next, and U.S. defense spending will increase
--China will be emboldened vis a vis Taiwan
--Those threatened/pressured by China will hedge against declining U.S. influence
--Global South will also hedge
--Democracy worldwide (including the U.S.) will further decline
--Dealing with Russia will become more difficult

McFaul is the ambassador Trump considered (during Trump’s very disturbing performance at the 2018 Helsinki conference) handing over to Putin for questioning about McFaul’s role in the protests in Russia—McFaul is not a Trump fan. He’s also critical of the U.S.’s handling of Ukraine during the Obama years.

McFaul noted that while Ukraine essentially won the war in 2022, wars are only truly won in the last year, and he fears the war is headed toward a stalemate, esp. if the West's support begins to wane.

Obama didn't handle the Russian invasion of Ukraine well. He was too passive about it. It emboldened Putin. But the entirety of the West handles it poorly. I remember France trying to justify selling Russia an advanced helicopter carrier and taking months before deciding to call it off.

[Bo Diddley]

Russian brigade SW of Bakhmut retreats.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2023-05-10/

A Ukrainian military unit said on Wednesday it had routed a Russian infantry brigade from frontline territory near Bakhmut, claiming to confirm an account by the head of Russia's Wagner private army that the Russian forces had fled.

Moscow has not commented on the reports that its 72nd Separate Motor-rifle Brigade had abandoned its positions on the southwestern outskirts of Bakhmut.

[Bo Diddley]

Embedded Tweet

Good grief! When do you decide you need to investigate his activities?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65625524

The court filing from justice department prosecutors on Wednesday alleged Mr Teixeira's superiors had flagged "concerning actions" around Mr Teixeira's handling of classified information.

It said that on one occasion he was seen taking notes and putting them in his pocket. His superiors then asked him to stop taking notes in any form on classified information, prosecutors said.

A month later, Mr Teixeira's bosses discovered he was "potentially ignoring a cease-and-desist order on deep diving into intelligence" after he went to a classified briefing and posed "very specific questions" about what was discussed. They told him to stop and "focus on his job", the court filing said.

Then, in February 2023, after someone saw the airman viewing intelligence information that was "not related to his primary duty", Mr Teixeira's supervisors were notified, according to the court document. It is unclear if he was disciplined.

I would recommend a two-person rule when accessing Top Secret information, particularly when you're dealing with junior members.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Good grief! When do you decide you need to investigate his activities?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65625524



I would recommend a two-person rule when accessing Top Secret information, particularly when you're dealing with junior members.

US national security is a joke.

[Bo Diddley]

Ukraine continues to advance in Bahkmut. Remember when it looked like Ukraine was withdrawing from that city? It's crazy that Russia has spent so much on capturing that city, and now they're in retreat.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2023-05-18/

Ukraine's military said troops had advanced in places by more than a mile. Its forces had been on the defensive for half a year, weathering a huge offensive by Moscow that saw only slow gains.

[wuapinmon]

Over 1500 posts about the war so far. https://t.me/AnAmericanWhoSupportsUkraine

image_2023-05-22_09-12-10.jpg

[Goatnapper'96]

I think the counteroffensive is starting to get rolling.

I think Ukraine would like more time to get the modern jets into their arsenal and get their pilots trained to establish air superiority but that whole process is likely at least a year away. Politically they have no choice but to provide the constituents of the countries bankrolling their fight against the gawdless commies some evidence that they can in fact take territory back from an entrenched Russian Army.

This is going to be an interesting fight. Russia is entrenched now-they have had time to dig in and develop deep defensive fortifications. But their Army is being exposed for the mess it is. Morale sucks, their doctrine is caught in the early 20th Century and they are seriously hampered economically from the sanctions. Their only friends in the world don't really care about their success as much as they care about opposing the West and the US. That is not a good place to be in for Russia. A modern combined arms Army will be bearing down on them along a very long front over the next 3-4 months. We have somewhat seen this modern Army in the desert twice against exported Russian equipment being operated by Iraqi soldiers, but now we get to see how it all works out in Eastern Europe being operated against the gawdless commies themselves.

Early reports have the gawdless commies getting more breathless about an early repulsion of some Ukrainian reconnaissance elements than I was in the 8th grade when Michell Stevens said "yes" to going out with me on a Friday afternoon. I got dumped by 8:00 Saturday nite, the fight in Ukraine might be similar for the gawdless commies. I just cannot grasp them not systematically taking territory back with all they have on the ground right now and how much culturally they are willing to commit to this fight. Folks who really think the fight is existential seem to find consensus and commitment-those two C's are huge in the time of combat.

For right now they just need to demonstrate the capacity to take territory back-that can keep the doveish aspects of Western constitutuencies in the minority. Then next year when they have a better Air Force than the gawdless commies they can take the rest and establish a strong defensive posture along their border with the gawdless commies.

[Bo Diddley]

I think the counteroffensive is starting to get rolling.

I think Ukraine would like more time to get the modern jets into their arsenal and get their pilots trained to establish air superiority but that whole process is likely at least a year away. Politically they have no choice but to provide the constituents of the countries bankrolling their fight against the gawdless commies some evidence that they can in fact take territory back from an entrenched Russian Army.

This is going to be an interesting fight. Russia is entrenched now-they have had time to dig in and develop deep defensive fortifications. But their Army is being exposed for the mess it is. Morale sucks, their doctrine is caught in the early 20th Century and they are seriously hampered economically from the sanctions. Their only friends in the world don't really care about their success as much as they care about opposing the West and the US. That is not a good place to be in for Russia. A modern combined arms Army will be bearing down on them along a very long front over the next 3-4 months. We have somewhat seen this modern Army in the desert twice against exported Russian equipment being operated by Iraqi soldiers, but now we get to see how it all works out in Eastern Europe being operated against the gawdless commies themselves.

Early reports have the gawdless commies getting more breathless about an early repulsion of some Ukrainian reconnaissance elements than I was in the 8th grade when Michell Stevens said "yes" to going out with me on a Friday afternoon. I got dumped by 8:00 Saturday nite, the fight in Ukraine might be similar for the gawdless commies. I just cannot grasp them not systematically taking territory back with all they have on the ground right now and how much culturally they are willing to commit to this fight. Folks who really think the fight is existential seem to find consensus and commitment-those two C's are huge in the time of combat.

For right now they just need to demonstrate the capacity to take territory back-that can keep the doveish aspects of Western constitutuencies in the minority. Then next year when they have a better Air Force than the gawdless commies they can take the rest and establish a strong defensive posture along their border with the gawdless commies.

Yes, I think it's started. I was concerned about early reports from Russia about killing 250 or so Ukraine soldiers, so waiting with great anticipation how it all shakes out. I like your take on it.

[Goatnapper'96]

Yes, I think it's started. I was concerned about early reports from Russia about killing 250 or so Ukraine soldiers, so waiting with great anticipation how it all shakes out. I like your take on it.

I am sure they killed some reconnaissance vehicles and killed some Ukrainian soldiers, but I am convinced the gawdless commie propaganda machine is exaggerating enormously. When they start repelling NATO tanks and APCs get concerned. That gawdless commie crap the Ukrainians sacrificed is just fodder.

I am interested if you have any insights on the mobility aspect that the engineers will provide. The gawdless commies really dig in and it is going to take serious engineer integration to create a couple of breeches through the gawdless commie defense fortifications and then I am hoping all hell will break loose. I don't think even the US Army has the experience of engineer integration it is going to take the Ukrainians to bust through the defense fortifications. This topography is enormously different than a war in the desert.

[Bo Diddley]

I am sure they killed some reconnaissance vehicles and killed some Ukrainian soldiers, but I am convinced the gawdless commie propaganda machine is exaggerating enormously. When they start repelling NATO tanks and APCs get concerned. That gawdless commie crap the Ukrainians sacrificed is just fodder.

I am interested if you have any insights on the mobility aspect that the engineers will provide. The gawdless commies really dig in and it is going to take serious engineer integration to create a couple of breeches through the gawdless commie defense fortifications and then I am hoping all hell will break loose. I don't think even the US Army has the experience of engineer integration it is going to take the Ukrainians to bust through the defense fortifications. This topography is enormously different than a war in the desert.

I haven't seen the specifics on Russia's fortifications, but mobility was a major mission we performed the first 23 years of my career down in the Engineers. We did a lot of training in the Mountains of Ephraim over those years, before we even considered the possibility of heading over to the desert. I haven't seen what engineer equipment packages we've been sending them, or even what training we've been giving them. I assume that was all part of the BCT's that we helped stand-up in their formations. If they're following our doctrine, they'll have the engineer assets they'll need to breach any obstacles that have been put up. I assume the BCT's have been tuned specifically to the current fight, which means there's going to be significant heavy equipment needed to move dirt and other heavy obstacles. And bridging assets. I would love to have an insider's view of what that all looks like. I think as the fight moves, we'll be able to see that.

The one fortification I've heard the most about is dragon's teeth. Get a dozer and push some dirt over them, and drive on! Now you make me want to go volunteer for the fight.

[BigPiney]

[Goatnapper'96]

I haven't seen the specifics on Russia's fortifications, but mobility was a major mission we performed the first 23 years of my career down in the Engineers. We did a lot of training in the Mountains of Ephraim over those years, before we even considered the possibility of heading over to the desert. I haven't seen what engineer equipment packages we've been sending them, or even what training we've been giving them. I assume that was all part of the BCT's that we helped stand-up in their formations. If they're following our doctrine, they'll have the engineer assets they'll need to breach any obstacles that have been put up. I assume the BCT's have been tuned specifically to the current fight, which means there's going to be significant heavy equipment needed to move dirt and other heavy obstacles. And bridging assets. I would love to have an insider's view of what that all looks like. I think as the fight moves, we'll be able to see that.

The one fortification I've heard the most about is dragon's teeth. Get a dozer and push some dirt over them, and drive on! Now you make me want to go volunteer for the fight.

Stay home-ain't our game anymore. Remember running sub 13:00s on the APFT? We don't do that anymore. Tis a young man's game.

[Bo Diddley]

Stay home-ain't our game anymore. Remember running sub 13:00s on the APFT? We don't do that anymore. Tis a young man's game.

Yeah, no risk of that. Still planning to stay in a few more years. The new ACFT is super easy to pass. At my age, I only have to "run" in 23:20--a far cry from what I did in my younger days. I do all my cardio on the bike anymore.

[Goatnapper'96]

2 Weeks into the Ukrainian Counteroffensive and the Ukrainians have made some incremental progress. Their side claims to have taken back 8 small villages and to have retaken 100 kilometers^2 of territory from the gawdless commies. The news sources I read (Al Jezeera, CNN, BBC and The Institute for Understanding War) all have a very pro-Ukrainian slant. Understanding War gives the best analysis of the tactical situation but is admittedly guarded. The others go a little more in depth into the political and social issues. Understanding indicates that Ukraine is pausing its counteroffensive for the next week as it reevaluates the results of initial probing thrusts. So far the British intelligence is claiming both sides suffered big losses and Ukraine has yet to create a breach of the massive gawdless commie defensive fortifications and breakthrough. However, nobody seems to believe that Ukraine has even established a main effort axis at this point so the preponderance of good armor equipment and brigades are still being held in reserve until the location of the main effort is determined. The gawdless commies blew up the major dam, and some smaller ones, along the Dnipro River and flooded out the river delta along the Kherson Oblast and have reportedly flexed their forces protecting Kehrson/Crimean Peninsula to the Zazophoria area where they appear to expect the Ukrainian main effort to come from. The gawdless commies are hoping the flooding will prevent Ukraine from moving forces en masse south of the Dnipro and attack in that direction.

As I said most of the information I get is decidedly pro Ukrainian but I tend to agree with the analysis that if/when there is finally a breakthrough the Russian Army is likely to significantly struggle. They have erected very formidable defensive fortifications but I think the Army behind those fortifications is rotting to the core. The morale sucks, they are underequiped and running out of necessary combat supplies due to the effectiveness of the international sanctions against the Russian Federation. The question arises as to whether or not Ukraine can get the break though and establish a breach wide enough so that massive armor forces can pour through and the fight the withering gawdless commie army in a maneuver battle on favorable circumstances for Ukraine. I figure that things will slow down again in November so lets hope the breakthrough can come in the next 3 months so that Ukraine will have a couple of months to take significant territory back and then establish a competent defensive posture to hold the regained territory until next Spring. By then Ukraine ought to have an Air Force component that is at least the equal, and in many cases superior to, that of the gawdless commies and then it should be much easier to drive the gawdless commies back to Russia. I do think that Ukraine is prioritizing Bakhmut, despite it lack of strategic value, because they believe the taking back of Bahkmut will create internal division and perhaps some level of civil strife if not even civil conflict back in Russia. If the regime sees its hold on power as tenuous they will bring military elements back to Moscow to protect themselves against perhaps an emboldened Wagner entity.

WOLVERINES!

[Bo Diddley]

2 Weeks into the Ukrainian Counteroffensive and the Ukrainians have made some incremental progress. Their side claims to have taken back 8 small villages and to have retaken 100 kilometers^2 of territory from the gawdless commies. The news sources I read (Al Jezeera, CNN, BBC and The Institute for Understanding War) all have a very pro-Ukrainian slant. Understanding War gives the best analysis of the tactical situation but is admittedly guarded. The others go a little more in depth into the political and social issues. Understanding indicates that Ukraine is pausing its counteroffensive for the next week as it reevaluates the results of initial probing thrusts. So far the British intelligence is claiming both sides suffered big losses and Ukraine has yet to create a breach of the massive gawdless commie defensive fortifications and breakthrough. However, nobody seems to believe that Ukraine has even established a main effort axis at this point so the preponderance of good armor equipment and brigades are still being held in reserve until the location of the main effort is determined. The gawdless commies blew up the major dam, and some smaller ones, along the Dnipro River and flooded out the river delta along the Kherson Oblast and have reportedly flexed their forces protecting Kehrson/Crimean Peninsula to the Zazophoria area where they appear to expect the Ukrainian main effort to come from. The gawdless commies are hoping the flooding will prevent Ukraine from moving forces en masse south of the Dnipro and attack in that direction.

As I said most of the information I get is decidedly pro Ukrainian but I tend to agree with the analysis that if/when there is finally a breakthrough the Russian Army is likely to significantly struggle. They have erected very formidable defensive fortifications but I think the Army behind those fortifications is rotting to the core. The morale sucks, they are underequiped and running out of necessary combat supplies due to the effectiveness of the international sanctions against the Russian Federation. The question arises as to whether or not Ukraine can get the break though and establish a breach wide enough so that massive armor forces can pour through and the fight the withering gawdless commie army in a maneuver battle on favorable circumstances for Ukraine. I figure that things will slow down again in November so lets hope the breakthrough can come in the next 3 months so that Ukraine will have a couple of months to take significant territory back and then establish a competent defensive posture to hold the regained territory until next Spring. By then Ukraine ought to have an Air Force component that is at least the equal, and in many cases superior to, that of the gawdless commies and then it should be much easier to drive the gawdless commies back to Russia. I do think that Ukraine is prioritizing Bakhmut, despite it lack of strategic value, because they believe the taking back of Bahkmut will create internal division and perhaps some level of civil strife if not even civil conflict back in Russia. If the regime sees its hold on power as tenuous they will bring military elements back to Moscow to protect themselves against perhaps an emboldened Wagner entity.

WOLVERINES!

That's a solid analysis. I await the battlefield results with great anticipation.