Screw the Stock Market...

[Moliere]

That said, I actually bought into two mutual funds out of China this week. I was heavily influenced by a presentation by a guy (American) who has lived in China the past 30 years and focuses on financial and political matters. When questioned whether COVID and the effect on exports will damage China heavily, he said not nearly as much as one might think. First, he says that while China lied and covered up egregiously at the outset of the pandemic, he believes the recently reported numbers are pretty solid and that China is way ahead of the U.S. and other nations in getting past this. He also said that China is not nearly as export-dependent as it was just five years ago, and that rising domestic demand will offset the loss of exports.

If there’s anyone to believe when it comes to predicting markets, it’s a guy who self proclaims to study financial and political matters. Bonus points if the presentation was in PowerPoint and had cool transitions both between and inside the slides.

[PaloAltoCougar]

And the Dow jumps 500 points back over 26,000.

I don't understand this at all. I pulled a chunk of the modest nest egg away from equities early last month and I don't regret doing so. I spoke with my financial advisor earlier today and they can't explain it either. I share their belief that when 2d quarter earnings come out and the effects of high unemployment sink in, the market head south. I hope we're all wrong.

That said, I actually bought into two mutual funds out of China this week. I was heavily influenced by a presentation by a guy (American) who has lived in China the past 30 years and focuses on financial and political matters. When questioned whether COVID and the effect on exports will damage China heavily, he said not nearly as much as one might think. First, he says that while China lied and covered up egregiously at the outset of the pandemic, he believes the recently reported numbers are pretty solid and that China is way ahead of the U.S. and other nations in getting past this. He also said that China is not nearly as export-dependent as it was just five years ago, and that rising domestic demand will offset the loss of exports.

[myboynoah]

And the Dow jumps 500 points back over 26,000.

[Jeff Lebowski]

While I agree that equities may be over priced, the problem is that there are few good investment alternatives. Personally, I won't make it to retirement with a 401K invested in money market funds. So over priced or not, hoping that stocks rebound and another bull market emerges.

Yes, of course, equities are the best long-term investment for most folks. Just an observation of the crazy valuations in the middle of the pandemic.

[Paperback Writer]

While I agree that equities may be over priced, the problem is that there are few good investment alternatives. Personally, I won't make it to retirement with a 401K invested in money market funds. So over priced or not, hoping that stocks rebound and another bull market emerges.

[Jeff Lebowski]

David Tepper agrees with me.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/davi...d-only-99.html

Billionaire hedge fund investor David Tepper told CNBC on Wednesday the stock market is one of the most overpriced he’s ever seen, only behind 1999.

...

The S&P 500′s forward price-earnings ratio based on estimates for the next 12 months has ballooned to above 20, a level not seen since 2002.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Thanks a lot all you jerks who said the market was too high. Hope you are happy now.

[Clark Addison]

Thanks a lot all you jerks who said the market was too high. Hope you are happy now.

[Moliere]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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Matador!! Random fact, their general counsel is in a stake presidency up in Dallas.

[old_gregg]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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robinhood. vaya con dios.

[ewth8tr]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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[wapiti]

The market is irrational when you look at it in short spurts. That being said, some forecasts a coupel weeks ago predicted GDP would drop 10%, so when it only shrinks 4.8% you get a nice rebound. That actually makes sense since GDP beat most forecasts.

It was Q1 GDP. The economy only started to contract in March, mostly late March so the number didn't reflect the true impact of the pandemic. The consensus forecast that I saw for GDP was -4.2% so it was slightly worse than expectations. This will easily be a double-digit contraction in Q2 even with things opening back up in May and June.

Regardless, the GDP report was backward looking and the market is forward looking.

[Flystripper]

Screw the Stock Market...

Q1 earnings only had one month of full covid impact and it was still big. Wait until July when Q2 gets announced. It’s going to be a bloodbath.


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[Uncle Ted]

It makes zero sense. Take today for example: they announce that the GDP shrunk 4.8%. That is a huge drop! GE said that $1B of earnings were wiped out due to COVID. AirBnB is major trouble. I am sure all the people leveraged on extra properties that they are using for AirBnB in trouble. Tons of other bad news. But a nod of reassurance from the Fed and a bit of good news on remdesivir and the market surges. It is almost like investors are so desperate for signs that we are turning a corner that they are pricing in the rebound before it happens. But there is going to be so much more bad news. I predict another drop.

Yeah, I think this market will have ups and downs but the general trend will be sideways for a while unless the dumb dems keep stalling on opening things up. If that is a case we might be headed for a tailspin going down. There are some great deals on AirBnB right now, BTW.

Now if we can just get the dems to come back to work...

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Pelosi and crew just want to watch the economy crash and burn while eating their fancy ice cream.

[Jeff Lebowski]

How can you say that? Are you an epidemiologist?

I know a guy who is a patent attorney.