2022 Midterm Elections

[Bo Diddley]

I still believe Trump lost in 2020 because he kept trying to undercut confidence in mail in ballots. I think he depressed voter turn-out in his own base.

What about the Big Lie? When he sows the seeds of doubt, how does that affect his base for the 2022 Midterm Elections? If you had lost confidence in the process, would you go out and vote?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Not voting to own the libs. Isn't that what happened in the Florida senate runoff election?

[Moliere]

Not voting to own the libs. Isn't that what happened in the Florida senate runoff election?

Georgia?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Georgia?

Oh yeah. I think you are right.

[Bo Diddley]

Will COVID-19 Deaths have any impact on the elections? NPR did a piece correlating the deaths to pro-Trump counties. I doubt it has much impact, but we've seen a presidential election in recent years where the outcome could easily have fallen within the impact of COVID-19 deaths.

[BlueK]

Will COVID-19 Deaths have any impact on the elections? NPR did a piece correlating the deaths to pro-Trump counties. I doubt it has much impact, but we've seen a presidential election in recent years where the outcome could easily have fallen within the impact of COVID-19 deaths.

Kind of morbid but it might impact a couple of senate races and a few swing district House races.

[Bo Diddley]

I read an article last week from the NY Times that said it looks like the GOP has a good chance at flipping the House in 2022.

The Cook Political Report is projecting that Republicans have an advantage in taking back a majority in the House of Representatives during the coming midterm elections. The GOP need to flip just five seats to reclaim control of the lower chamber, with the party expressing optimism about their odds.

I read somewhere else, because I don't see it in this article, that the GOP are better positioned to win this time around due to redrawn congressional districts after the 2020 Census.

[BlueK]

I read an article last week from the NY Times that said it looks like the GOP has a good chance at flipping the House in 2022.



I read somewhere else, because I don't see it in this article, that the GOP are better positioned to win this time around due to redrawn congressional districts after the 2020 Census.

The redistricting was expected to help the gop but i also recently read that after some analysis some are saying it wasn't as extreme as was expected and may not make that much difference by itself. It could actually be that most states were already as gerrymandered as was possible. I'm not thrilled though that my district in Texas in an affluent suburb county in Texas in which Trump won by less than a point is being broken up and I'm now going to be in a district that is mostly rural. It also looks like the classic gerrymander shape that makes absolutely no geographic sense. Gerrymandering sucks and should be illegal.

[Clark Addison]

Flipping the house to the GOP would really suck, but on the bright side the Fus posts would be epic and possibly worth it.

[BlueK]

Flipping the house to the GOP would really suck, but on the bright side the Fus posts would be epic and possibly worth it.

The House could flip but the senate map is favorable to the dems this time. Also I think there's a decent chance the insurrection committee's report hurts the Republicans in swing districts.

[USUC]

The House could flip but the senate map is favorable to the dems this time. Also I think there's a decent chance the insurrection committee's report hurts the Republicans in swing districts.

As much as us online and engaged voters are repulsed by the events of Jan 6th, this country has an incredibly short memory and it won't be very high on their list of important things. Abstract philosophical ideas won't ever be at the top of the average voter's priorities. Stuff like education, prices, and supply chain issues will. But there is still 10 months for these things to improve. But it's likely that the GOP takes at least one chamber of congress because that is what history has shown to happen.

[beefytee]

I think the Democrats' best chances to do well is to make the midterm about Trump and the insurrection. If they are able to engage Trump and get him involved, they will be able to get their voters out to the polls. I'm not thrilled about this prospect. The Republicans naturally have the advantage with the Democratic record on trial, but they probably need Trump to go away. So far they haven't been successful with that.

I'm hoping covid isn't an issue by this fall.

[Applejack]

As much as us online and engaged voters are repulsed by the events of Jan 6th, this country has an incredibly short memory and it won't be very high on their list of important things. Abstract philosophical ideas won't ever be at the top of the average voter's priorities. Stuff like education, prices, and supply chain issues will. But there is still 10 months for these things to improve. But it's likely that the GOP takes at least one chamber of congress because that is what history has shown to happen.

January 6th was the least abstract thing on your list of things that voters care about.

[Jeff Lebowski]

January 6th was the least abstract thing on your list of things that voters care about.

Geez no kidding.

[USUC]

January 6th was the least abstract thing on your list of things that voters care about.

Oh come on. Do you guys interact with normies in your day to day life at all?

Even with the acknowledgement that Jan 6th was bad (only crazy MAGA folks don't have a sense that it was wrong), to most people it was a bad event that happened a year ago and there hasn't been any other tangible threat since. You and I know that an attempt to overturn the election occurred. And MAGA world is actively trying to undermine the system to this day. But they haven't been successful. The threat is all in the abstract right now. What matters to voters are real world, practical things that personally affect them in the here and now. We are all high information voters and hyper focused on the abstract.

Now the practical matters may change in the next 10 months that changes the fortunes of either party. But it won't be because Jan 6th happened and the attempt failed. Memories are short.