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  • Rpi Forecast

    I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

    But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.

  • #2
    For BYU, that will translate in to a 13 seed and a play in game.

    I think our RPI was a little lower than that last year, but when I was at BYU, I remember having an RPI in the 20s and getting a horrible seed.
    Will donate kidney for B12 membership.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by BigPiney View Post
      I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

      But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.
      An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
      Everything in life is an approximation.

      http://twitter.com/CougarStats

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      • #4
        How many at larges are there? I think 45? So #34 would put you sitting very pretty.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Indy Coug View Post
          An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
          That was what I was afraid of.

          I did the predictor part of the page. Reminded me of the lengthy Massey ratings discussion for football.

          We are going undefeated from here on out.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Indy Coug View Post
            An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
            It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

            While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
            70-Florida State
            29-Notre Dame
            59-Iowa State
            38-Baylor

            The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
            109-Tennessee State
            125-Montana
            103-Utah
            132-Virginia Tech

            Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

            Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
            61 - Santa Clara
            87 - St. Mary's
            5 - Gonzaga
            96 - Utah State

            We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
            "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
            - Goatnapper'96

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Pelado View Post
              It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

              While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
              70-Florida State
              29-Notre Dame
              59-Iowa State
              38-Baylor

              The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
              109-Tennessee State
              125-Montana
              103-Utah
              132-Virginia Tech

              Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

              Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
              61 - Santa Clara
              87 - St. Mary's
              5 - Gonzaga
              96 - Utah State

              We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
              Utah is currently BYU's best win? Progress!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by jay santos View Post
                How many at larges are there? I think 45? So #34 would put you sitting very pretty.
                I butchered this thought. I meant to say that there are enough at larges that the top 45 or so teams make it, including conference champs that are in the top 45.

                It usually goes that the top 30 are locks. About 2/3 of 30 - 40 make it. Then about 1/2 the 40-50 and then some stragglers.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Pelado View Post
                  It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

                  While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
                  70-Florida State
                  29-Notre Dame
                  59-Iowa State
                  38-Baylor

                  The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
                  109-Tennessee State
                  125-Montana
                  103-Utah
                  132-Virginia Tech

                  Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

                  Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
                  61 - Santa Clara
                  87 - St. Mary's
                  5 - Gonzaga
                  96 - Utah State

                  We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
                  Yes, quality wins are critical and sorely lacking thus far. That home game against Gonzaga is a big one.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by wapiti View Post
                    Yes, quality wins are critical and sorely lacking thus far. That home game against Gonzaga is a big one.
                    I'm hopeful USU will rise as well.

                    There's opportunities for us to make a dent in this.
                    Will donate kidney for B12 membership.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      We really need the win @ Santa Clara this weekend. And then the home game next week against St Mary's. Those two game really could make the season. Lose the Santa Clara game and we may have to beat Gonzaga at home to make the tourney.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by BigPiney View Post
                        We really need the win @ Santa Clara this weekend. And then the home game next week against St Mary's. Those two game really could make the season. Lose the Santa Clara game and we may have to beat Gonzaga at home to make the tourney.
                        We may need to beat Gonzaga twice even if we don't lose to Santa Clara.
                        "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
                        - Goatnapper'96

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BigPiney View Post
                          I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

                          But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.
                          I actually know the guy that runs rpiforecast.com. He is also a Finance professor, and very good guy (Utah State grad too). There are some technical reasons why rpiforecast is better. I had a discussion with him about the site one time and nice discussion about the small mistake realtime rpi was making (it's related to Jensen's inequality).
                          Last edited by pelagius; 01-08-2013, 04:09 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Pelado View Post
                            We may need to beat Gonzaga twice even if we don't lose to Santa Clara.
                            I think one win over the Zags will be enough if Gonzaga maintains its place on the top 3 lines of the bracket. The bar is pretty low to make the tourney.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by wapiti View Post
                              I think one win over the Zags will be enough if Gonzaga maintains its place on the top 3 lines of the bracket. The bar is pretty low to make the tourney.
                              I hope you're right. My concern is that, even if we win all our other games, only one win against Gonzaga puts us at 1-3 or 1-4 against the top 50. Not exactly awe-inspiring.

                              We might need the WCC auto-bid. Of course, earning the auto-bid might get us enough wins to qualify as an at-large.
                              "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
                              - Goatnapper'96

                              Comment

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