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  • Originally posted by Babs View Post
    Yes, but those polls also predicted Hillary to win by 5+ points. It will come down to voter turnout. The reds annoyed by this circus are less likely to show up than the blues offended by everything else.
    Which is currently the greater number in your opinion: left leaning voters who are disturbed enough by the dem tactics in this nomination fight that they will consider voting the other way this time, or Trump supporters who are troubled by sexual assault allegations enough to abandon the Republican party this time around? The lefties who are outraged by the kavenaugh proceedings have been outraged for the past two years and were going to show up regardless. But this circus plays right into how Trump interacts with his base and some of his supporters who may not have been jazzed about the mid terms have now been galvanized.

    If the Republicans hold the house they can thank Diane Feinstein.

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    • Originally posted by Omaha 680 View Post
      Which is currently the greater number in your opinion: left leaning voters who are disturbed enough by the dem tactics in this nomination fight that they will consider voting the other way this time, or Trump supporters who are troubled by sexual assault allegations enough to abandon the Republican party this time around? The lefties who are outraged by the kavenaugh proceedings have been outraged for the past two years and were going to show up regardless. But this circus plays right into how Trump interacts with his base and some of his supporters who may not have been jazzed about the mid terms have now been galvanized.

      If the Republicans hold the house they can thank Diane Feinstein.
      This might be a factor to wake up some Republican voters to show up, but I doubt it will be enough to hold onto the House. Where it may matter is that I think until a couple of weeks ago that the GOP was probably also going to lose the Senate, as most of the half dozen or so key races there were trending in favor of the democrat. That seems less likely today. Then again, it can still change.
      Last edited by BlueK; 10-04-2018, 07:35 AM.

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      • Originally posted by Omaha 680 View Post
        Which is currently the greater number in your opinion: left leaning voters who are disturbed enough by the dem tactics in this nomination fight that they will consider voting the other way this time, or Trump supporters who are troubled by sexual assault allegations enough to abandon the Republican party this time around? The lefties who are outraged by the kavenaugh proceedings have been outraged for the past two years and were going to show up regardless. But this circus plays right into how Trump interacts with his base and some of his supporters who may not have been jazzed about the mid terms have now been galvanized.

        If the Republicans hold the house they can thank Diane Feinstein.
        And what about "normal" repubs who can't stand Trump but are disgusted with how the dems handled this last minute character assassination of Judge Brett? They may have been inclined to vote dem this time around to send a message to Trump, but the game has changed. At best for the dems, they'll just stay home. At worst they come out and vote repub.
        Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

        For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

        Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

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        • My concern with him remains the same. I think his record shows he's weak on separation of powers issues as well as probably on 1st, 4th and 5th amendment issues. But those are too boring for the tabloids and popular media to spend any time talking about.

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          • Originally posted by myboynoah View Post
            And what about "normal" repubs who can't stand Trump but are disgusted with how the dems handled this last minute character assassination of Judge Brett? They may have been inclined to vote dem this time around to send a message to Trump, but the game has changed. At best for the dems, they'll just stay home. At worst they come out and vote repub.
            Yeah I was thinking about that group as well and I think it may be significant (I am in it!). I think the dems still take the house but it the Republicans hold it will not be a shock to anyone but traditional media and the committed "resistance".

            Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

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            • Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
              That’s funny. That is not what we learned from the last election.
              It's exactly what we learned from the last election. The voters opposed to the existing executive regime are a lot more likely to show up and vote.

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              • Originally posted by Babs View Post
                It's exactly what we learned from the last election. The voters opposed to the existing executive regime are a lot more likely to show up and vote.
                Hillary Clinton was the existing executive regime? OK.
                "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
                "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
                "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

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                • Originally posted by BlueK View Post
                  Interesting article. Yes, the author leans against, but makes valid non-partisan-based points. I could see many of these type of arguments being what will make Flake, Collins and Murkowski vote against.

                  https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...anaugh/571936/
                  Totally unpersuasive.

                  If he is telling the truth, he has every right to be indignant. Heck, we should all be indignant-- over the harm to Kavanaugh and his family, to the Senate and Court, and most of all to Ford, who never wanted these allegations leaked in the first place. Even the author of this article ultimately agrees with this: if he is telling the truth, his anger is understandable, or even "forgivable."

                  And if he is lying, does it mollify his perjury if he lies with a smile on his face and a song in his heart?

                  This all comes down to whether or not you think he is telling the truth. His temperament in doing so is pretty much inconsequential. This is small ball stuff.
                  τὸν ἥλιον ἀνατέλλοντα πλείονες ἢ δυόμενον προσκυνοῦσιν

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by BlueK View Post
                    Kavanaugh and I have something in common. My HS years were pretty much only about family, school, church and basketball also.
                    No football?
                    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
                    - Goatnapper'96

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                    • Originally posted by Babs View Post
                      It's exactly what we learned from the last election. The voters opposed to the existing executive regime are a lot more likely to show up and vote.
                      Here is why Dems will have a wave:

                      1.) More excitement. Losing creates excitement for change, winning never does that. Check your BOM pride cycle chart from Targeteer B class. Dems are repenting and about to get blessed. Republicans are enjoying the riches of success and are just a month or two from burning babies to some false God. Alma and Amulek are going to endure for a bit more before all hell breaks loose on election day.

                      2.) Trump's base is about Trump. Just like Obama's coalition was about Obama. Coalition's based on cult of personality (Thank you Living Color) don't vote in midterms.

                      I don't think Kavanugh's situation is going to impact this much at all. I think the tightening of polls is because Republicans, who tend to vote more in midterms, are getting engaged more which happens every election come October. But I am skeptical they will be engaged enough to stop the Tulane Blue Wave!

                      GO ARMY BEAT NAVY!
                      Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
                      -General George S. Patton

                      I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
                      -DOCTOR Wuap

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Pelado View Post
                        No football?
                        sure, I watched it on TV and went to the games at LES, called Cougar Stadium at the time. Basketball has always been my favorite sport though and I played it as much as I could. Unfortunately for me personally, my HS team was too good to need my talents.
                        Last edited by BlueK; 10-04-2018, 09:17 AM.

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                        • Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
                          Hillary Clinton was the existing executive regime? OK.
                          I'm confused.

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                          • The responses from Flake/Collins/Murkowski sound like Kavanaugh is on his way to the supreme court.

                            I believe Ford, I believe the dems did her wrong the way they rolled it out, and believe Avenetti damaged her credibility with the way he represented his client. And that Kavanaugh really doesn't seem like that great of a SC candidate, based on his embarrassing second round of testimony.

                            Whatever. I just want the circus to end.
                            "...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
                            "You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
                            - SeattleUte

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                            • Originally posted by All-American View Post
                              Totally unpersuasive.

                              If he is telling the truth, he has every right to be indignant. Heck, we should all be indignant-- over the harm to Kavanaugh and his family, to the Senate and Court, and most of all to Ford, who never wanted these allegations leaked in the first place. Even the author of this article ultimately agrees with this: if he is telling the truth, his anger is understandable, or even "forgivable."

                              And if he is lying, does it mollify his perjury if he lies with a smile on his face and a song in his heart?

                              This all comes down to whether or not you think he is telling the truth. His temperament in doing so is pretty much inconsequential. This is small ball stuff.
                              I suppose that very little political discourse is persuasive these days. And I think that's a bad thing because the next step is constantly screaming at each other, followed by violence. The funny thing is how easily an argument flips when applied to the side someone disagrees with. No rush to get Garland confirmed because there's less than a year to go til the next election, but damn, we need to slam this one through before the election in 6 weeks. It's a joke. That's why like 40-45% of the current population, I'm never going to sign up for either major party. Most of the country to some degree or another is fed up with the dysfunction, but the only realistic thing to do is push the pendulum back the other direction and hope the other party screws up less. That's what's about to happen again.

                              And I still apply a lot of blame for this to Gerrymandering and congressional districts designed to be completely non-competitive, among a few other things.
                              Last edited by BlueK; 10-04-2018, 12:01 PM.

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                              • Originally posted by Northwestcoug View Post
                                The responses from Flake/Collins/Murkowski sound like Kavanaugh is on his way to the supreme court.

                                I believe Ford, I believe the dems did her wrong the way they rolled it out, and believe Avenetti damaged her credibility with the way he represented his client. And that Kavanaugh really doesn't seem like that great of a SC candidate, based on his embarrassing second round of testimony.

                                Whatever. I just want the circus to end.
                                Kavanaugh will be interesting to watch on there. Does he act predictably like a traditional Conservative on the Court and like a Constitutional literalist, or does this episode push him to become the first unabashed Trumpian justice, the Constitution be damned as long as he backs up Trump? I might bet some money on the latter.

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