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Thread: Higher Education: will half of all college close in the next decade?

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    Default Higher Education: will half of all college close in the next decade?

    With the delay and potential cancellation of the college football season due to COVID, and considering how leveraged most institutions of higher learning are in general, how imminent is the following prediction:

    "Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen consistently turns heads in higher education by predicting that 50% of colleges and universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade.

    Christensen and I made a more measured prediction with more nuance in the New York Times in 2013: 'a host of struggling colleges and universities—the bottom 25% of every tier, we predict—will disappear or merge in the next 10 to 15 years.'"

    https://www.christenseninstitute.org...e-next-decade/

    Clayton Christensen (now deceased) visited our Stake as a Seventy several years ago. Coincidently, since that visit my little college has invited him and or representatives from the Christensen Institute to come and speak and provide workshops about "disruptive innovation," on three separate occasions.

    Essentially, Canadian institutions of higher learning owe their survival to government funding and enrolment. Tuition is less than half if not one quarter the cost of US tuition for the same or a better eduction. Regardless, there may be too many institutions of higher learning here to meet a dwindling domestic enrolment need. Which is remarkable when you consider just how few colleges and universities there are here relative to the US.

    Over the past few years, many Canadian institutions had been leveraging their future on the enrolment of international students. International students pay nearly three times the tuition, which is still much less than what they would pay if they attended school in the US. That factor, along with Trumps election has resulted in a marked increase in international applicants. There will be a reckoning for many institutions if these students are not allowed into Canada this fall. But that reckoning pales in comparison to the reckoning major US Colleges and Universities could face if there is a substantial disruption to major college athletics.

    On-line learning certainly hasn't been the disruptor Christensen thought it would be. Colleges and Universities had begun to make adjustments, and are now in full adapt and survive mode. Hybridization of curriculum is the new norm. There will be no going back, but what comes next ... what kinds of disruptive innovations does the current COVID epidemic portend?
    Last edited by tooblue; 07-22-2020 at 08:19 AM.

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    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    I'm no expert in this but the anecdotal experience I've seen recently is that colleges are going to suffer greatly not because of college athletics being postponed or cancelled (most programs are in the red) but because they are unwilling to open up their campuses. I know some poeple whose kids are scheduled to attend Baylor this year. Baylor charges $65k/year in tuition although most people get some form of tuition assistance to bring that down. However, most of these parents are not wanting to pay the full price if there kid is going to be restricted to online learning for some classes and if the social/athletic programs aren't running. Their feeling is that their kids aren't getting the full experience so they should pay less...so some are thinking about deferring to next year.

    Also, anecdotally, I had a conversation with a colleague who's son is looking at colleges. His son recently toured Ole Miss and thinks he wants to go there for college. I asked why his son wants to attend Ole Miss and he said that his son likes the campus. It's odd to me that he'd even contemplate paying out of state tuition at a place like Ole Miss but I guess he's letting his son decide and he's already agreed to pay for college.

    For my kids, I've let them know that we will help pay tuition and the first year of housing. But our tuition help will never exceed either BYU's tuition amount or the in-state equivalent at that school. So my kid wants to attend USU but he knows that he either has to figure out a way to get in state tuition or he'll have to make up the difference between in-state and out-state tuition. So far, his plan is to attend USU Eastern for a year and get residency then transfer to the Logan campus for the final three years. There's no way I'm going to pay out of state tuition at USU when he could have attended Texas A&M where he would be automatically accepted as a sophomore if we attended a aTm satellite school and maintained a 3.0 gpa as a freshman.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    I'm no expert in this but the anecdotal experience I've seen recently is that colleges are going to suffer greatly not because of college athletics being postponed or cancelled (most programs are in the red) but because they are unwilling to open up their campuses. I know some poeple whose kids are scheduled to attend Baylor this year. Baylor charges $65k/year in tuition although most people get some form of tuition assistance to bring that down. However, most of these parents are not wanting to pay the full price if there kid is going to be restricted to online learning for some classes and if the social/athletic programs aren't running. Their feeling is that their kids aren't getting the full experience so they should pay less...so some are thinking about deferring to next year.

    Also, anecdotally, I had a conversation with a colleague who's son is looking at colleges. His son recently toured Ole Miss and thinks he wants to go there for college. I asked why his son wants to attend Ole Miss and he said that his son likes the campus. It's odd to me that he'd even contemplate paying out of state tuition at a place like Ole Miss but I guess he's letting his son decide and he's already agreed to pay for college.

    For my kids, I've let them know that we will help pay tuition and the first year of housing. But our tuition help will never exceed either BYU's tuition amount or the in-state equivalent at that school. So my kid wants to attend USU but he knows that he either has to figure out a way to get in state tuition or he'll have to make up the difference between in-state and out-state tuition. So far, his plan is to attend USU Eastern for a year and get residency then transfer to the Logan campus for the final three years. There's no way I'm going to pay out of state tuition at USU when he could have attended Texas A&M where he would be automatically accepted as a sophomore if we attended a aTm satellite school and maintained a 3.0 gpa as a freshman.
    $65k/year

    For comparison sake, domestic yearly tuition at an educationally equivalent institution in Canada is $6,463 CDN ($4,822 USD) per year for an undergraduate degree. We share our campus with a University (the college was here first—50 years or so—and the university was established a little more than ten years ago). Some of our administrative and support staff have been furloughed, whereas at the university there have been layoffs and some faculty have been furloughed.

    Universities have been facing budget crunches for the past several years due primarily to declining enrolment. People stopped or have significantly delayed getting married and having families. Universities were the first institutions to heavily recruit internationally. In the past five years they have also been adapting their curriculum—making it more practical and hands-on, and though they won't say it out loud, more vocational.

    But good gravy, are there large enough endowments to keep schools like Baylor open?
    Last edited by tooblue; 07-22-2020 at 10:04 AM.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    $65k/year

    For comparison sake, domestic yearly tuition at an educationally equivalent institution in Canada is $6,463 CDN ($4,822 USD) per year for an undergraduate degree. We share our campus with a University (the college was here first—50 years or so)—and the university was established a little more than ten years ago). Some of our administrative and support staff have been furloughed, whereas at the university there have been layoffs and some faculty have been furloughed.

    Universities have been facing budget crunches for the past several years due primarily to declining enrolment. People stopped or have significantly delayed getting married and having families. Universities were the first institutions to heavily recruit internationally. In the past five years they have also been adapting their curriculum—making it more practical and hands-on, and though they won't say it out loud, more vocational.

    But good gravy, are there large enough endowments to keep schools like Baylor open?


    FYI, tuition at Baylor is $44k not $65k. Still way too much, but it's private, so they charge what they want. In state tuition at a comparable school (aTm or Texas, for example) is between $10k and $11k.
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    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donuthole View Post


    FYI, tuition at Baylor is $44k not $65k. Still way too much, but it's private, so they charge what they want. In state tuition at a comparable school (aTm or Texas, for example) is between $10k and $11k.
    Yep. And huge bonus - you don't have to live in Canada.
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    Senior Member Clark Addison's Avatar
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    One more anecdote.

    First some background. I have a daughter with Asperger. This has impacted her educational achievement in various ways. The biggest is probably that if she feels an assignment isn't meaningful or valuable, she just won't do it. After high school she started going to the public university that is closest to us, about 45 minutes away. After three semesters, her habit of doing her own thing caught up with her, and she was put on academic probation. So for the last 18 months or so she has been living at home and taking classes at the local community college to get her grades up. This has worked well, and earlier this year she was re-admitted to her original university for the fall semester. She has decided though, that if they are going to do online only (which is looking likely) there is no point in doing that, and she will just continue with the community college classes until things open back up. This isn't Baylor and doesn't cost $65K/year (or $44k), but this would probably save me about $12K to $15K for Fall/Winter semesters, so I am fully supportive.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Yep. And huge bonus - you don't have to live in Canada.
    But you do have to live in Texas.

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    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    But you do have to live in Texas.
    One thing that Texans and Canadians share is that they can't stop talking about how awesome Texas/Canada is.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
    "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
    "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

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    Quote Originally Posted by Clark Addison View Post
    One more anecdote.

    First some background. I have a daughter with Asperger. This has impacted her educational achievement in various ways. The biggest is probably that if she feels an assignment isn't meaningful or valuable, she just won't do it. After high school she started going to the public university that is closest to us, about 45 minutes away. After three semesters, her habit of doing her own thing caught up with her, and she was put on academic probation. So for the last 18 months or so she has been living at home and taking classes at the local community college to get her grades up. This has worked well, and earlier this year she was re-admitted to her original university for the fall semester. She has decided though, that if they are going to do online only (which is looking likely) there is no point in doing that, and she will just continue with the community college classes until things open back up. This isn't Baylor and doesn't cost $65K/year (or $44k), but this would probably save me about $12K to $15K for Fall/Winter semesters, so I am fully supportive.
    That's a fascinating situation. Was there support for her at the college that was not available to her at the university? ... And I wonder if that support or the atmosphere that facilitated her success will remain the same if curriculum is delivered remotely, regardless where she attends this fall.

    It's a big question that we have been asking ourselves. At least half of the students I teach, in one of the two main programs I teach in, are on the spectrum. This summer I have been posting weekly updates concerning fall plans and return-to-campus protocols through various channels in an attempt to mitigate the collective anxiety of the cohorts.

    The program in which these students are enrolled is among a handful of programs that will be allowed to invite students onto the campus for some classes (at least that is the plan right now). We have an idea how it will work, but what is clear is that when pressed to really consider the curriculum, at least half of the classes are well suited to remote delivery, while all the rest could truly be made hybrid ... meaning students can be expected to engage remotely and they may only need to come to campus every other week for in-person experiential learning.

    These new models of curriculum delivery are going to become the norm.
    Last edited by tooblue; 07-22-2020 at 10:49 AM.

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    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donuthole View Post


    FYI, tuition at Baylor is $44k not $65k. Still way too much, but it's private, so they charge what they want. In state tuition at a comparable school (aTm or Texas, for example) is between $10k and $11k.
    Yes, sorry. The $65k number was what he told me but looks like that is the annual cost before aid so it would include housing, books, etc. Odd that housing in Waco is that much, maybe chip and jojo renovated the dorms so they are expensive


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    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

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    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    One thing that Texans and Canadians share is that they can't stop talking about how awesome Texas/Canada is.
    Texas isn’t great right now. Oil prices are in the toilet, COVID is rampant, heat index is off the charts, and Dan Patrick hasn’t sacrificed himself yet.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

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    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    Texas isn’t great right now. Oil prices are in the toilet, COVID is rampant, heat index is off the charts, and Dan Patrick hasn’t sacrificed himself yet.
    Spoiler alert: Canada isn't that great either.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
    "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
    "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

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    Senior Member Clark Addison's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    That's a fascinating situation. Was there support for her at the college that was not available to her at the university? ... And I wonder if that support or the atmosphere that facilitated her success will remain the same if curriculum is delivered remotely, regardless where she attends this fall.

    It's a big question that we have been asking ourselves. At least half of the students I teach, in one of the two main programs I teach in, are on the spectrum. This summer I have been posting weekly updates concerning fall plans and return-to-campus protocols through various channels in an attempt to mitigate the collective anxiety of the cohorts.

    The program in which these students are enrolled is among a handful of programs that will be allowed to invite students onto the campus for some classes (at least that is the plan right now). We have an idea how it will work, but what is clear is that when pressed to really consider the curriculum, at least half of the classes are well suited to remote delivery, while all the rest could truly be made hybrid ... meaning students can be expected to engage remotely and they may only need to come to campus every other week for in-person experiential learning.

    These new models of curriculum delivery are going to become the norm.
    Honestly, the biggest difference is probably that she has been living at home so we are able to stay on top of things easier, make sure she is attending classes, etc. Ever since she was diagnosed(at about age 10) she has been very resistant to it. She went to a couple of groups that had participants with varying functional levels and felt she was being put in a "mentally challenged" box. It has always been very difficult to get her to take advantage of support opportunities.

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    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    Universities have been facing budget crunches for the past several years due primarily to declining enrolment. People stopped or have significantly delayed getting married and having families. Universities were the first institutions to heavily recruit internationally. In the past five years they have also been adapting their curriculum—making it more practical and hands-on, and though they won't say it out loud, more vocational.
    So why is enrollment down? Is it due to costs being so high and people don't feel like they are getting a return on investment? I can't believe that is true since there are lower cost alternatives (in-state schools, tuition assistance, etc. plus sounds like it's cheap to attend in Canada). You can't get a job in my field (accounting) without a bachelors degree and most people have a masters...or I guess you can be a bookkeeper but we don't really count them as accountants. Maybe people don't need the increased salary that comes from having a degree since they aren't married or have as many kids?
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

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    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Spoiler alert: Canada isn't that great either.
    I could see three months in each working. Summer in Canada, maybe winter in Texas. May need somewhere with less annoying people for the spring and fall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    I could see three months in each working. Summer in Canada, maybe winter in Texas. May need somewhere with less annoying people for the spring and fall.
    There are a lot of retirees who do this, except it is Florida out east and Arizona out west. Haven't heard of many snowbirds choosing Texas.

    But for the record I'm all about making both Canada and Texas great again!

  17. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    So why is enrollment down? Is it due to costs being so high and people don't feel like they are getting a return on investment? I can't believe that is true since there are lower cost alternatives (in-state schools, tuition assistance, etc. plus sounds like it's cheap to attend in Canada). You can't get a job in my field (accounting) without a bachelors degree and most people have a masters...or I guess you can be a bookkeeper but we don't really count them as accountants. Maybe people don't need the increased salary that comes from having a degree since they aren't married or have as many kids?
    It is due primarily to demographics. Canada has followed the pattern of other liberal western (European) democracies. Canadians of mine and my wife's generation (GenX—I am in my late 40s, early 50's) stopped getting married and having families.

    Since about 2008 statisticians have been warning higher-ed admins about the resulting population decline, but it is easier to be in denial and maintain the status quo. After all, they believed immigration would solve the population issues. But realistically a country like Canada can only let in so many immigrants, in part because traditionally and until Trump was elected, more immigrants want to immigrate to the US.

    Simply, there are just not enough students to recruit and to attend school.
    Last edited by tooblue; 07-22-2020 at 01:43 PM.

  18. #18

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    Rutgers Professors Sue Over $100 Million Shifted to Athletics

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d-to-athletics

    "The labor group says that since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the university has laid off 20% of its adjunct faculty, asked other unions to accept furloughs and declared a fiscal emergency while money is used to subsidize the athletic department."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Spoiler alert: Canada isn't that great either.
    Canada is awesome, from late April through early November.
    "Yeah, but never trust a Ph.D who has an MBA as well. The PhD symbolizes intelligence and discipline. The MBA symbolizes lust for power." -- Katy Lied

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    One thing that Texans and Canadians share is that they can't stop talking about how awesome Texas/Canada is.
    Both of them also have in common that they are wrong about Texas/Canada being awesome.
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  21. #21

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    College student visa: Trump admin bars new foreign students taking online classes in US

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...le/5504422002/

    "New international college students — incoming first-year undergraduates and graduate students and the like — won't be allowed to come to the U.S. this fall if their courses are only online, President Donald Trump's administration said in guidance issued Friday."

    I think the Canadian government will make a similar decision—at least that is what we have been preparing for.

  22. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by MartyFunkhouser View Post
    Both of them also have in common that they are wrong about Texas/Canada being awesome.
    Parts of Canada can be pretty awesome.

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