2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[UVACoug]

Reason #100 why the electoral college is outdated

I did cringe when he said that. He stumbled and tried to correct himself by saying something to the effect of 'down the road we will not be relying on fossil fuels anymore'. But yeah, still a gaffe.

He also said if he's elected, he'd get us to net zero emissions nationwide by 2025, which is insane ... he later corrected that to 2035, which is also insane.

[UVACoug]

Majority of my friends are conservatives.

Most of them have solar, recycle, buy Tesla’s, repurpose furniture, turn off lights when they leave rooms, ordered the new Hummur, etc.

Most of your friends ordered the new Hummer? The one that starts at a minimum price of $90k? You must have rich friends.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Most of your friends ordered the new Hummer? The one that starts at a minimum price of $90k? You must have rich friends.

No, the first one will be $115K. The $90K one won't be available for a year or two after that.

[Uncle Ted]

Oh noes... someone wake up Commando! AZ is going red:

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Maybe it is for the best... that Mark Kelly dude is Hitler:

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Freak'n nazis. Go get'm Lt. Aldo Raine!

[Commando]

Susquehanna Polling? Huh?

If you’re wondering why this poll is a heavily Trump-favoring outlier, their polling organization literally has ‘Center For American Greatness’ as a header.

https://eriedems.com/node/2051

[Copelius]

States Trump won in 2016:
(20) Pennsylvania (Biden by 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.0 3.7 5.1)
(10) Wisconsin (Biden by 5.5 6.3 4.6)
(16) Michigan (Biden by 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.8)
(18) Ohio (Biden by 3.3 1.2 0.6 Trump by 0.2 0.6)
(11) Arizona (Biden by 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.4)
(29) Florida (Biden by 1.1 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.5)
(15) N. Carolina (Biden by .5 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.5)
(6) Iowa (Biden by .5 1.2 1.7 0.8)

States Trump won last time where he holds a slim lead:

(16) Georgia (Trump by 1.1 Biden by .3 Trump by 0.4 Biden by .4 1.2)
(38) Texas (Trump by 3.3 4.4 4.0)

Here is where Trump comes closest right now in states Clinton won narrowly in 2016:

(6) Nevada (Biden by 5.4 6.0 5.2)
(4) New Hampshire (Biden by 8.6 9.0 11.0)
(10) Minnesota (Biden by 9.4 9.0 6.6 6.3 6.0)
(9) Colorado (Biden by 10)
(13) Virginia (Biden by 11 11.4)
(5) New Mexico (Biden by 14.5)
(4) Maine (Biden by 12.8 11.0)

Some of these are still tightening up, although what should be most concerning to Trump is Biden increasing the lead in Michigan. I have to wonder if the broken terroristic threat and arrests there have soured some who were in the middle towards Trump. Who knows, but the ongoing shift toward Biden seemed to pick up a bit after that story. PA was tightening and now seems to be going back toward Biden some more.

As always, these numbers are the average of the most recent polls in each state as calculated by realclearpolitics.com.

Looking at the direction the polls are trending, and reading those trends in a light most favorable to Trump here is how it could turn out.


However looking at the map and putting current numbers in tells the more likely outcome.

I personally don't care. Both of them disqualified themselves for my vote for various reasons and I voted for Jo. I am in Utah, so it really doesn't matter.

[USUC]

Susquehanna Polling? Huh?

If you’re wondering why this poll is a heavily Trump-favoring outlier, their polling organization literally has ‘Center For American Greatness’ as a header.

https://eriedems.com/node/2051

You are on the ground in AZ and know this race better than I do, but both Reuters and Rasmussen have this race tightening considerably over the past week. Maybe the Susquehanna polling is off, but it doesn't seem out of the question. The outcome of this race probably comes down to how the state votes for the president.

I've been told of a campaign towards Biden voting Republicans to vote GOP in Senate races. But I doubt such a campaign would be effective.

[PaloAltoCougar]

My wish is a Biden victory margin of >100 electoral college votes, McConnell and Graham being ousted, and yet with the GOP barely retaining Senate control. Highly unlikely, but one can dream. I'm contributing to Biden, the Lincoln Project, and adding a little extra to my tithing this month. Hope it helps.

[USUC]

My wish is a Biden victory margin of >100 electoral college votes, McConnell and Graham being ousted, and yet with the GOP barely retaining Senate control. Highly unlikely, but one can dream. I'm contributing to Biden, the Lincoln Project, and adding a little extra to my tithing this month. Hope it helps.

When you say ousted, do you mean lose their elections or do you mean ousted from leadership positions? Because McConnell isn't losing an election anytime soon. Graham probably won't either.

The Lincoln Project is composed of failed neocon operatives who value the smell of their own flatulence over may form of classical liberalism. They are embarrassingly childish even as they try to ridicule Trump's childishness. If they never again hold any influence in politics it will be the only thing I will forever praise Trump for.

[PaloAltoCougar]

When you say ousted, do you mean lose their elections or do you mean ousted from leadership positions? Because McConnell isn't losing an election anytime soon. Graham probably won't either.

The Lincoln Project is composed of failed neocon operatives who value the smell of their own flatulence over may form of classical liberalism. They are embarrassingly childish even as they try to ridicule Trump's childishness. If they never again hold any influence in politics it will be the only thing I will forever praise Trump for.

Some of the Lincoln Project's ads are very good; others are at Trump's level of intellectual engagement and thus are as you described. I think Steve Schmidt truly suffers from TDS of the type many on the left are accused of. I don't expect my desires to be fulfilled.

[USUC]

Some of the Lincoln Project's ads are very good; others are at Trump's level of intellectual engagement and thus are as you described. I think Steve Schmidt truly suffers from TDS of the type many on the left are accused of. I don't expect my desires to be fulfilled.

Schmidt had an exchange on Twitter with Jonah Goldberg a week or two ago that was absolutely sickening. He is genuinely a terrible person. If he has half a conscience he has deleted it. But again, the whole group is awful and their politics when they were part of the party was awful as well.

The best never Trump conservatives are now at the Dispatch. There are a handful at National Review as well.

[BlueK]

At 10 days before the election:

13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8

I get annoying texts constantly from the Republicans and emails from the Democrats. An email from a Dem source today said that Clinton was up by double digits at this point last time...uh, no, she wasn't. But it's funny even that side is trying to benefit from the popular but false narrative to scare folks into giving more money.

[BlueK]

Looking at the direction the polls are trending, and reading those trends in a light most favorable to Trump here is how it could turn out.


However looking at the map and putting current numbers in tells the more likely outcome.

I personally don't care. Both of them disqualified themselves for my vote for various reasons and I voted for Jo. I am in Utah, so it really doesn't matter.

It's highly unlikely Trump would win Nevada. He has a better chance in Wisconsin, but not by that much. He's also just having to defend way too many states he won last time and he's behind by a few points in almost every state where it's close, and close in states where no Republican should be close like Georgia. So while I think the second map you showed is too optimistic for Biden, it's significantly closer than the first one.

I read somewhere that Florida is one of the states that starts tabulating votes as soon as they come in during early voting, so they could have a winner pretty early in the evening. That makes things really interesting because there are essentially zero realistic scenarios where Trump can win this without Florida's 29 EVs.

[frank ryan]

When you say ousted, do you mean lose their elections or do you mean ousted from leadership positions? Because McConnell isn't losing an election anytime soon. Graham probably won't either.

The Lincoln Project is composed of failed neocon operatives who value the smell of their own flatulence over may form of classical liberalism. They are embarrassingly childish even as they try to ridicule Trump's childishness. If they never again hold any influence in politics it will be the only thing I will forever praise Trump for.

The Lincoln Project do some good work. Why do you hate them so much?

[PaloAltoCougar]

It's highly unlikely Trump would win Nevada. He has a better chance in Wisconsin, but not by that much. He's also just having to defend way too many states he won last time and he's behind by a few points in almost every state where it's close, and close in states where no Republican should be close like Georgia. So while I think the second map you showed is too optimistic for Biden, it's significantly closer than the first one.

I read somewhere that Florida is one of the states that starts tabulating votes as soon as they come in during early voting, so they could have a winner pretty early in the evening. That makes things really interesting because there are essentially zero realistic scenarios where Trump can win this without Florida's 29 EVs.

This interested me, as I'd assumed no one did anything with mail-in ballots until the polls closed. Not true! You're right that Florida starts counting immediately (actually, two weeks out), as do a few other states. Most of the others "process" the votes in advance, meaning that signatures are cross-checked and validity determined, but the counting doesn't start until election day. Here's a nice summary.

I'm now more optimistic we'll have a winner late November 3.