2020 General Presidential Election Thread

[BlueK]

We're now at 5 days from the election. Biden is holding on better than Clinton was. By this point clinton was most certainly in margin of error territory both nationally and in the average of polls in key battleground states (MI, WI, PA, AZ, FL, NC)


13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6
8 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.8, Clinton up 2.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 3.5
7 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.4, Clinton up 2.2; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.8
6 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.1, Clinton up 1.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.1
5 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.7, Clinton up 2.0; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.5 points, Clinton by 1.6

[BlueK]

One week away, it's time for an update of the RCP averages on the important states:

States Trump won in 2016:
(20) Pennsylvania (Biden by 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.0 3.7 5.1 3.8 4.3)
(10) Wisconsin (Biden by 5.5 6.3 4.6 5.5 6.4)
(16) Michigan (Biden by 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.8 9.4 8.2)
(18) Ohio (Biden by 3.3 1.2 0.6 Trump by 0.2 0.6 Tie)
(11) Arizona (Biden by 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.4 Tie)
(29) Florida (Biden by 1.1 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.5 Trump 0.4 Biden 1.4)
(15) N. Carolina (Biden by .5 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.5 0.7 .6)
(6) Iowa (Biden by .5 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.0)

States Trump won last time where he holds a slim lead:

(16) Georgia (Trump by 1.1 Biden by .3 Trump by 0.4 Biden by .4 1.2 Trump 0.4 Biden 0.4)
(38) Texas (Trump by 3.3 4.4 4.0 2.6 2.3)

Here is where Trump comes closest right now in states Clinton won narrowly in 2016:

(6) Nevada (Biden by 5.4 6.0 5.2 4.6)
(4) New Hampshire (Biden by 8.6 9.0 11.0 10)
(10) Minnesota (Biden by 9.4 9.0 6.6 6.3 6.0 4.7)
(9) Colorado (Biden by 10)
(13) Virginia (Biden by 11 11.4 12.5)
(5) New Mexico (Biden by 14.5)
(4) Maine (Biden by 12.8 11.0 10.6 11.3)

Biden seems to have started to reverse the backward trend in PA and has pulled it back out of MOE on most polls for now. MI seems safe and WI is improving for him.

[Moliere]

A - ACB didn’t vote
B - I really wish we knew how Kavanaugh voted. If it was 4-4 along the predictable lines then you aren’t making the case you think you’re making. If it was 5-3, that is encouraging.

I thought there was. 6-3 conservative majority. Guess not.

[Now who’s the dean?]

I thought there was. 6-3 conservative majority. Guess not.

So did you just not read what I wrote?

[Now who’s the dean?]

These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them [emoji122][emoji631][emoji122][emoji1787]

"Martha, just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute!" Trump said, rushing the senator onstage in the middle of his rally. "One minute, Martha! They don't want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let's go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on. Let's go."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html

[Uncle Ted]

Tucker is a crack reporter, and it's important to have an original email, not a copy, for reporting purposes.

Do you think the laptop-from-hell would have gotten so much press if Rudy Giuliani merely produced copies of screenshots of emails?

No worries... UPS is saying now they found these documents.

[Eddie]

These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them [emoji122][emoji631][emoji122][emoji1787]



https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html

Does Trump really believe that a GOP congressperson who disagrees with him sometimes is worse to have than a Dem congressperson who disagrees with him on EVERYTHING?

I mean - Mitt Romney has roasted him at times, but still voted for ACB and 90% of his agenda. Yeah - Mitt is probably a bad example due to the impeachment vote. But a Dem senator in Mitt's place wouldn't have voted differently. I mean, I can understand Trump throwing his weight behind a different GOP candidate during the primary, but when it's between a GOP congressperson and a Dem one, it seems like it would be in his best interest to back the GOP. Even if he happens to win re-election, he won't be seating any more supreme court justices if the GOP doesn't hold the senate.

[falafel]

No worries... UPS is saying now they found these documents.

For the first time in your life, no link?

[Uncle Ted]

For the first time in your life, no link?

Y'all should trust me by now.

[Commando]

These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them [emoji122][emoji631][emoji122][emoji1787]



https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html

She's nothing if not a loyal golden retriever! I hope she got an extra treat!

[Commando]

So UPS put out a statement that the package was never lost... and Tucker finally got the package but then lost it again? And it wasn't physical documents in the package but actually a thumb drive? This story is making the Rudy Giuliani-has-Hunter-Biden's-laptop theory seem super believable.

Maybe Republicans are regretting making Hunter Biden scandals the cornerstone of the 2020 reelection campaign? What do you say, Ted?

[Jeff Lebowski]

So UPS put out a statement that the package was never lost... and Tucker finally got the package but then lost it again? And it wasn't physical documents in the package but actually a thumb drive? This story is making the Rudy Giuliani-has-Hunter-Biden's-laptop theory seem super believable.

Maybe Republicans are regretting making Hunter Biden scandals the cornerstone of the 2020 reelection campaign? What do you say, Ted?

WTH? So all that detail he provided on the story was completely made up?

Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

This gets more comical by the hour.

[old_gregg]

WTH? So all that detail he provided on the story was completely made up?

Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

This gets more comical by the hour.

it’s almost like tucker carlson does dumb and obnoxious things for no reason other than to gin up a story and rile up his lovable frat boy idiot viewership

[Uncle Ted]

Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

Maybe because the hotel's internet sucks and it is a large image?

Enter the cybersecurity experts...

EXCLUSIVE: NY Post’s ‘Smoking Gun’ Hunter Biden Email 100% Authentic, Forensic Analysis Concludes

An email Hunter Biden received in April 2015 from a Burisma executive discussing an introduction to then-Vice President Joe Biden, which lies at the heart of a New York Post investigation, is unquestionably authentic, a cybersecurity expert told the Daily Caller News Foundation on Thursday.

The DCNF obtained a full copy of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday. The DCNF provided Robert Graham, the founder of the cybersecurity firm Errata Security, with a copy of the email and its metadata for forensic analysis.

Graham, who has been cited as a cybersecurity expert in The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Wired, Engadget and other news and technology outlets, told the DCNF that he used a cryptographic signature found in the email’s metadata to validate that Vadym Pozharsky, an advisor to Burisma’s board of directors, emailed Hunter Biden on April 17, 2015.
[...]
Graham previously told the DCNF that emails sent from Gmail, such as Pozharski’s message to Hunter Biden, can be “absolutely verified beyond a shadow of a doubt” by testing its contents against the unique DKIM signature found in its metadata.

Graham used the DKIM signature within the email to verify with a private key on Google’s servers that the sender, recipient, subject, date and body of the message that the DCNF obtained from Giuliani were unchanged from when the email was originally sent in April 2015.

Graham said the only way the email could have been faked is if someone hacked into Google’s servers, found the private key and used it to reverse engineer the email’s DKIM signature.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/29/c...burisma-email/

Damn... These Russian hackers are good to get Google's private key!

[Commando]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

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Gee, this sudden change of heart wouldn't have anything to do with NBC confirming the documents were created by a non-existent person, would it?