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Thread: 2020 General Presidential Election Thread

  1. #2371

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    We're now at 5 days from the election. Biden is holding on better than Clinton was. By this point clinton was most certainly in margin of error territory both nationally and in the average of polls in key battleground states (MI, WI, PA, AZ, FL, NC)


    13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
    12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
    11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
    10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
    9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6
    8 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.8, Clinton up 2.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 3.5
    7 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.4, Clinton up 2.2; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.8
    6 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.1, Clinton up 1.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.1
    5 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.7, Clinton up 2.0; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.5 points, Clinton by 1.6

  2. #2372

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    One week away, it's time for an update of the RCP averages on the important states:

    States Trump won in 2016:
    (20) Pennsylvania (Biden by 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.0 3.7 5.1 3.8 4.3)
    (10) Wisconsin (Biden by 5.5 6.3 4.6 5.5 6.4)
    (16) Michigan (Biden by 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.8 9.4 8.2)
    (18) Ohio (Biden by 3.3 1.2 0.6 Trump by 0.2 0.6 Tie)
    (11) Arizona (Biden by 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.4 Tie)
    (29) Florida (Biden by 1.1 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.5 Trump 0.4 Biden 1.4)
    (15) N. Carolina (Biden by .5 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.5 0.7 .6)
    (6) Iowa (Biden by .5 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.0)

    States Trump won last time where he holds a slim lead:

    (16) Georgia (Trump by 1.1 Biden by .3 Trump by 0.4 Biden by .4 1.2 Trump 0.4 Biden 0.4)
    (38) Texas (Trump by 3.3 4.4 4.0 2.6 2.3)

    Here is where Trump comes closest right now in states Clinton won narrowly in 2016:

    (6) Nevada (Biden by 5.4 6.0 5.2 4.6)
    (4) New Hampshire (Biden by 8.6 9.0 11.0 10)
    (10) Minnesota (Biden by 9.4 9.0 6.6 6.3 6.0 4.7)
    (9) Colorado (Biden by 10)
    (13) Virginia (Biden by 11 11.4 12.5)
    (5) New Mexico (Biden by 14.5)
    (4) Maine (Biden by 12.8 11.0 10.6 11.3)

    Biden seems to have started to reverse the backward trend in PA and has pulled it back out of MOE on most polls for now. MI seems safe and WI is improving for him.

  3. #2373
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Now who’s the dean? View Post
    A - ACB didn’t vote
    B - I really wish we knew how Kavanaugh voted. If it was 4-4 along the predictable lines then you aren’t making the case you think you’re making. If it was 5-3, that is encouraging.
    I thought there was. 6-3 conservative majority. Guess not.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  4. #2374

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    I thought there was. 6-3 conservative majority. Guess not.
    So did you just not read what I wrote?

  5. #2375

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    These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them

    "Martha, just come up fast. Fast. Fast. Come on. Quick. You got one minute!" Trump said, rushing the senator onstage in the middle of his rally. "One minute, Martha! They don't want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let's go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on. Let's go."
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    Tucker is a crack reporter, and it's important to have an original email, not a copy, for reporting purposes.

    Do you think the laptop-from-hell would have gotten so much press if Rudy Giuliani merely produced copies of screenshots of emails?
    No worries... UPS is saying now they found these documents.
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  7. #2377
    Senior Member Eddie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Now who’s the dean? View Post
    These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them



    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html
    Does Trump really believe that a GOP congressperson who disagrees with him sometimes is worse to have than a Dem congressperson who disagrees with him on EVERYTHING?

    I mean - Mitt Romney has roasted him at times, but still voted for ACB and 90% of his agenda. Yeah - Mitt is probably a bad example due to the impeachment vote. But a Dem senator in Mitt's place wouldn't have voted differently. I mean, I can understand Trump throwing his weight behind a different GOP candidate during the primary, but when it's between a GOP congressperson and a Dem one, it seems like it would be in his best interest to back the GOP. Even if he happens to win re-election, he won't be seating any more supreme court justices if the GOP doesn't hold the senate.

  8. #2378
    My Mic Sounds Nice falafel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    No worries... UPS is saying now they found these documents.
    For the first time in your life, no link?
    Ain't it like most people, I'm no different. We love to talk on things we don't know about.

    "The only one of us who is so significant that Jeff owes us something simply because he decided to grace us with his presence is falafel." -- All-American

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    Quote Originally Posted by falafel View Post
    For the first time in your life, no link?
    Y'all should trust me by now.
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
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    GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Now who’s the dean? View Post
    These Trumpsters like McSally implant their heads all the way up his ass and it really pays off for them



    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/polit...020/index.html

    She's nothing if not a loyal golden retriever! I hope she got an extra treat!
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  11. #2381
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    So UPS put out a statement that the package was never lost... and Tucker finally got the package but then lost it again? And it wasn't physical documents in the package but actually a thumb drive? This story is making the Rudy Giuliani-has-Hunter-Biden's-laptop theory seem super believable.

    Maybe Republicans are regretting making Hunter Biden scandals the cornerstone of the 2020 reelection campaign? What do you say, Ted?
    "I'm anti, can't no government handle a commando / Your man don't want it, Trump's a bitch! I'll make his whole brand go under,"

  12. #2382
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commando View Post
    So UPS put out a statement that the package was never lost... and Tucker finally got the package but then lost it again? And it wasn't physical documents in the package but actually a thumb drive? This story is making the Rudy Giuliani-has-Hunter-Biden's-laptop theory seem super believable.

    Maybe Republicans are regretting making Hunter Biden scandals the cornerstone of the 2020 reelection campaign? What do you say, Ted?
    WTH? So all that detail he provided on the story was completely made up?

    Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

    This gets more comical by the hour.
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  13. #2383

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    WTH? So all that detail he provided on the story was completely made up?

    Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

    This gets more comical by the hour.
    it’s almost like tucker carlson does dumb and obnoxious things for no reason other than to gin up a story and rile up his lovable frat boy idiot viewership
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?
    Maybe because the hotel's internet sucks and it is a large image?

    Enter the cybersecurity experts...

    EXCLUSIVE: NY Post’s ‘Smoking Gun’ Hunter Biden Email 100% Authentic, Forensic Analysis Concludes

    An email Hunter Biden received in April 2015 from a Burisma executive discussing an introduction to then-Vice President Joe Biden, which lies at the heart of a New York Post investigation, is unquestionably authentic, a cybersecurity expert told the Daily Caller News Foundation on Thursday.

    The DCNF obtained a full copy of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday. The DCNF provided Robert Graham, the founder of the cybersecurity firm Errata Security, with a copy of the email and its metadata for forensic analysis.

    Graham, who has been cited as a cybersecurity expert in The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Wired, Engadget and other news and technology outlets, told the DCNF that he used a cryptographic signature found in the email’s metadata to validate that Vadym Pozharsky, an advisor to Burisma’s board of directors, emailed Hunter Biden on April 17, 2015.
    [...]
    Graham previously told the DCNF that emails sent from Gmail, such as Pozharski’s message to Hunter Biden, can be “absolutely verified beyond a shadow of a doubt” by testing its contents against the unique DKIM signature found in its metadata.

    Graham used the DKIM signature within the email to verify with a private key on Google’s servers that the sender, recipient, subject, date and body of the message that the DCNF obtained from Giuliani were unchanged from when the email was originally sent in April 2015.

    Graham said the only way the email could have been faked is if someone hacked into Google’s servers, found the private key and used it to reverse engineer the email’s DKIM signature.
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/10/29/c...burisma-email/

    Damn... These Russian hackers are good to get Google's private key!
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
    "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
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  15. #2385
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    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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    AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH


    Last edited by Commando; 10-29-2020 at 09:43 PM.
    "I'm anti, can't no government handle a commando / Your man don't want it, Trump's a bitch! I'll make his whole brand go under,"

  16. #2386
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    WTH? So all that detail he provided on the story was completely made up?

    Why on earth are they mailing a thumb drive?

    This gets more comical by the hour.
    Reminds me of when I had to buy a dvd drive for our iMac because some lady in the ward gave MJ some files on a cd/dvd. I asked why she can’t just use a file sharing site. I got a blank stare and realized I’d have to teach them all how to do it so I just paid $30 for the drive.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  17. #2387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commando View Post
    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
    HHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
    AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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    AHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH


    Yeah that was an interesting article.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/securit...eluge-n1245387

  18. #2388
    a day late/a dollar short Sullyute's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    Yeah that was an interesting article.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/securit...eluge-n1245387
    That was interesting about the fake face generator.
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  19. #2389

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    So....he’s not going to release the damning documents???

    Oh well, I guess we still have Rudy on the case.

  20. #2390
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueK View Post
    One week away, it's time for an update of the RCP averages on the important states:

    States Trump won in 2016:
    (20) Pennsylvania (Biden by 5.7 6.5 7.3 7.0 3.7 5.1 3.8 4.3)
    (10) Wisconsin (Biden by 5.5 6.3 4.6 5.5 6.4)
    (16) Michigan (Biden by 5.2 6.2 7.0 7.2 7.8 9.4 8.2)
    (18) Ohio (Biden by 3.3 1.2 0.6 Trump by 0.2 0.6 Tie)
    (11) Arizona (Biden by 2.8 3.4 2.7 3.5 3.1 2.4 Tie)
    (29) Florida (Biden by 1.1 3.5 2.7 1.6 1.5 Trump 0.4 Biden 1.4)
    (15) N. Carolina (Biden by .5 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.3 1.5 0.7 .6)
    (6) Iowa (Biden by .5 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.0)

    States Trump won last time where he holds a slim lead:

    (16) Georgia (Trump by 1.1 Biden by .3 Trump by 0.4 Biden by .4 1.2 Trump 0.4 Biden 0.4)
    (38) Texas (Trump by 3.3 4.4 4.0 2.6 2.3)

    Here is where Trump comes closest right now in states Clinton won narrowly in 2016:

    (6) Nevada (Biden by 5.4 6.0 5.2 4.6)
    (4) New Hampshire (Biden by 8.6 9.0 11.0 10)
    (10) Minnesota (Biden by 9.4 9.0 6.6 6.3 6.0 4.7)
    (9) Colorado (Biden by 10)
    (13) Virginia (Biden by 11 11.4 12.5)
    (5) New Mexico (Biden by 14.5)
    (4) Maine (Biden by 12.8 11.0 10.6 11.3)

    Biden seems to have started to reverse the backward trend in PA and has pulled it back out of MOE on most polls for now. MI seems safe and WI is improving for him.
    You may not want to watch this...



    BTW, it may be time to refresh your numbers. Looks like Michigan is going to Drumpf:

    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
    "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
    GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

  21. #2391
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    BTW, it may be time to refresh your numbers. Looks like Michigan is going to Drumpf:

    Umm, Uncle Ted, might want to read the replies to that tweet. Looks like it's all made up:

    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    Umm, Uncle Ted, might want to read the replies to that tweet. Looks like it's all made up:

    The only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday.
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
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    GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

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    Glen Greenwald, co-founder of the Intercept, has resigned...



    He posted his article here: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/art...biden-censored

    The Intercept has lots its way.
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
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    GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

  24. #2394
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    I'm a lot more confident that Biden will win on Tuesday than I was with Hillary in 2016. There's still a possibility that Trump wins but it is really unlikely at this point. There are fewer undecideds this time around and most states and national poll margins are larger than in 2016. It also looks like turnout will be up most places compared with 2016 which is likely to favor Biden.

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    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    I'm a lot more confident that Biden will win on Tuesday than I was with Hillary in 2016. There's still a possibility that Trump wins but it is really unlikely at this point. There are fewer undecideds this time around and most states and national poll margins are larger than in 2016. It also looks like turnout will be up most places compared with 2016 which is likely to favor Biden.
    Nate Silver has said some stuff that aligns with this as well. He's also added that the election is not turning towards Trump this time like it did in 2016. There are some polls coming through that show a slight turn towards Trump, but they are in the minority and for the most part the better polls are remaining steady. He also thinks pollsters have made some corrections since 2016 so the polls should be closer this time around.

    I really have no worries about his election, but I also didn't worry in 2016 and see where that got us . I think Trump is going to lose big enough that any court challenges won't matter. I also think PA won't matter and the election will be called before PA has counted all their ballots.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  26. #2396

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    13 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.5, Clinton up 5.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 4.1
    12 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 4.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
    11 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.9, Clinton up 3.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4.1 points, Clinton by 3.8
    10 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.1, Clinton up 3.8; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.8
    9 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 8.0, Clinton up 2.6; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.8 points, Clinton by 3.6
    8 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.8, Clinton up 2.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 4 points, Clinton by 3.5
    7 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.4, Clinton up 2.2; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.8
    6 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.1, Clinton up 1.9; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.6 points, Clinton by 2.1
    5 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.7, Clinton up 2.0; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.5 points, Clinton by 1
    4 days before election: national polls -- Biden up 7.8, Clinton up 2.3; six key battleground states -- Biden up by 3.2 points, Clinton by 1.6

  27. #2397

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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    The only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday.
    Trafalgar oversamples old people and rural folks.

  28. #2398

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    Of the many unsavory people connected with Trump, Giuliani is on the top of the list I hope are forgotten in the dustbin of history:

    "...you pointy-headed autopsy nerd. Do you think it's possible for you to post without using words like "hilarious," "absurd," "canard," and "truther"? Your bare assertions do not make it so. Maybe your reasoning is too stunted and your vocabulary is too limited to go without these epithets."
    "You are an intemperate, unscientific poster who makes light of very serious matters.”
    - SeattleUte

  29. #2399
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    Nate Silver has said some stuff that aligns with this as well. He's also added that the election is not turning towards Trump this time like it did in 2016. There are some polls coming through that show a slight turn towards Trump, but they are in the minority and for the most part the better polls are remaining steady. He also thinks pollsters have made some corrections since 2016 so the polls should be closer this time around.

    I really have no worries about his election, but I also didn't worry in 2016 and see where that got us . I think Trump is going to lose big enough that any court challenges won't matter. I also think PA won't matter and the election will be called before PA has counted all their ballots.
    I was doing my own predictions on the 538 website and concluded that this election comes down to Pennsylvania. Full disclosure: I have some doubts on the polling results favoring Biden but within the margin of error.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    The only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday.
    ... and Trafalgar and Rasmussen and the Make America Great Coalition, right?
    "I'm anti, can't no government handle a commando / Your man don't want it, Trump's a bitch! I'll make his whole brand go under,"

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