At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Katy Lied]

That's a silly article. Its not like the rats weren't there before the shutdown. If anything the shutdown will cull their numbers a bit as they have less trash and discarded food to eat.

But maybe seeing them out in the open will make the city act to address the problem in the future.

Someone who works in SLC on Main Street said he sighted wild turkeys on the road.

[swampfrog]

Fantastic piece here.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technolo...-right/609271/

The most important function of epidemiological models is as a simulation, a way to see our potential futures ahead of time, and how that interacts with the choices we make today. With COVID-19 models, we have one simple, urgent goal: to ignore all the optimistic branches and that thick trunk in the middle representing the most likely outcomes. Instead, we need to focus on the branches representing the worst outcomes, and prune them with all our might. Social isolation reduces transmission, and slows the spread of the disease. In doing so, it chops off branches that represent some of the worst futures. Contact tracing catches people before they infect others, pruning more branches that represent unchecked catastrophes.

At the beginning of a pandemic, we have the disadvantage of higher uncertainty, but the advantage of being early: The costs of our actions are lower because the disease is less widespread. As we prune the tree of the terrible, unthinkable branches, we are not just choosing a path; we are shaping the underlying parameters themselves, because the parameters themselves are not fixed. If our hospitals are not overrun, we will have fewer deaths and thus a lower fatality rate. That’s why we shouldn’t get bogged down in litigating a model’s numbers. Instead we should focus on the parameters we can change, and change them.

Every time the White House releases a COVID-19 model, we will be tempted to drown ourselves in endless discussions about the error bars, the clarity around the parameters, the wide range of outcomes, and the applicability of the underlying data. And the media might be tempted to cover those discussions, as this fits their horse-race, he-said-she-said scripts. Let’s not. We should instead look at the calamitous branches of our decision tree and chop them all off, and then chop them off again.

Sometimes, when we succeed in chopping off the end of the pessimistic tail, it looks like we overreacted. A near miss can make a model look false. But that’s not always what happened. It just means we won. And that’s why we model.

[Joe Public]

Ten million jobless claims filed over the last two weeks. Staggering.

[Flystripper]

Ten million jobless claims filed over the last two weeks. Staggering.

it is truly staggering...the height of the financial crisis had 15 million jobless claims. Earlier this week there were estimates of 20 million jobless by end of April...that seems way too optimistic. The solution and the disease are both horrible and we won't know which is worse until it is over.

[swampfrog]

Further reporting of the numerator problem.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-...ed-11585767179

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...Pos=6#cxrecs_s

[tooblue]

dinos.jpg

[myboynoah]

Further reporting of the numerator problem.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-...ed-11585767179

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...Pos=6#cxrecs_s

Yep. If the testing regime is so late to the game that it is an ongoing attempt to catch up to the virus, then deaths from the virus will be and are being undercounted.

[BlueK]

Georgia's governor just barely found out that asymptomatic people can transmit the virus. Isn't it his freaking job to be a little ahead of the curve on information about something this consequential, instead of way behind?

[myboynoah]

Georgia's governor just barely found out that asymptomatic people can transmit the virus. Isn't it his freaking job to be a little ahead of the curve on information about something this consequential, instead of way behind?

I saw that. He acted surprised.

Where has he been? What a dope.

[wuapinmon]

Where has he been?

Suppressing the minority vote.

[BigPiney]

Suppressing the minority vote.

[myboynoah]

Embedded Tweet

So is Utah testing everyone? If so, amazing!!!!

[Omaha 680]

First COVID-19 antibody test approved by FDA today? When can I have one? I'll pay to get tested tomorrow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/h...body-test.html

[myboynoah]

First COVID-19 antibody test approved by FDA today? When can I have one? I'll pay to get tested tomorrow.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/h...body-test.html

Test early and often.

[smokymountainrain]

Embedded Tweet

So is Utah testing everyone? If so, amazing!!!!

Utah is killing it. Testing a ton, low death rate, hospitals on good shape (for now). First death was 10 days ago. Since that day there have been 6 deaths. 7 deaths in 10 days and no substantial increase day to day.

Now the explosion may be coming, but we’ve held it off pretty well to this point and with the high testing rate, they are doing things right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk