At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[PaloAltoCougar]

The open letter is no longer available on Stanford's website. (link to nowhere: https://medicine.stanford.edu/news/c...d-doctors.html)

Stanford probably let their lawyers override their doctors.

The lawyers haven't reached the The Stanford Daily yet.

[dabrockster]

At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

Hey JIC, kinda off topic but I think relevant to the conversation.

When is the best time to get a flu shot? Hard core press to get it now but I tend to get it in late October.

Is there a optimal month to get it? Is there an issue if you get it too early like right now?

TIA


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[Jarid in Cedar]

Hey JIC, kinda off topic but I think relevant to the conversation.

When is the best time to get a flu shot? Hard core press to get it now but I tend to get it in late October.

Is there a optimal month to get it? Is there an issue if you get it too early like eight now?

TIA


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I am an early October flu shot guy. You don't want to wait too long, but too early may leave you at mild increased risk of there is a late season surge

[dabrockster]

At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

I am an early October flu shot guy. You don't want to wait too long, but too early may leave you at mild increased risk of there is a late season surge

Thanks JIC. I was thinking end of October.

I do have an interesting discussion on COVID I am wondering if you have any knowledge on.

With the BIG10 football happening again, one of the main contributors to this is the daily testing the athletes will have. Today on the sports radio, they spoke in detail about the testing and this new testing being used will allow for COVID to be detected “before” infectivity. Meaning they will determine if you have COVID before you are infectious which will ensure NO spread.

Is this for real? I have never heard of this.. I assume it is fairly new and possibly has not been run through substantial testing but that is very innovative and if can be spread across all sports etc. that is great news.

The innovation coming out of this is amazing to see.


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[Northwestcoug]

A second case of transverse myelitis has been found in Astra Zeneca’s SARS-CoV-2 vaccine trial:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/h...e=articleShare

A company man says that the first case of transverse myelitis was actually an undiagnosed case of MS. I guess that’s possible. But this is concerning. If any more cases pop up we may be back to square one.

And of course with everything else in 2020, Trump’s idiocy has made this worse by pushing a very unrealistic vaccine timetable, making lots of people nervous about the safety of whatever vaccine finally makes it.

[Northwestcoug]

What in the hell is happening over at the CDC?!? They can’t even handle updates to their website:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ne-guidelines/

[Bo Diddley]

What in the hell is happening over at the CDC?!? They can’t even handle updates to their website:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ne-guidelines/

Ugh. All the anti-science people will make hey with this and say the so called experts don't know what's going on either.

[Non Sequitur]

What in the hell is happening over at the CDC?!? They can’t even handle updates to their website:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ne-guidelines/

The CDC's hands are tied. They're a Federal agency, so they occasionally need to be corrected when their findings contradict the Federal narrative. If we've learned anything about Trump, it's that his favorite method of circumventing truth is to poison wells. Intelligence agencies can't be trusted. The FBI can't be trusted. Not even his political appointees can be trusted. Knock down enough institutions, and suddenly you're king of the hill.

[Moliere]

The CDC's hands are tied. They're a Federal agency, so they occasionally need to be corrected when their findings contradict the Federal narrative. If we've learned anything about Trump, it's that his favorite method of circumventing truth is to poison wells. Intelligence agencies can't be trusted. The FBI can't be trusted. Not even his political appointees can be trusted. Knock down enough institutions, and suddenly you're king of the hill.

[Jarid in Cedar]

So, the stuff going on in Europe is pretty interesting regarding the lack of deaths seen with their current surge. So I decided to dive and see what to make of it.

So what I did was look at cases and deaths during three time periods: Onset to 4/21(Group 1). 4/22 to 6/21(group 2). And 6/22 to 9/19(Group 3). I broke out the number deaths and confirmed cases within each grouping and did a Case Fatality Rate(CFR) for each one. For Europe, I took the four hardest hit, UK, Italy, Spain, France, and added everyone's favorite Sweden and Germany. I then compared it to the US as a whole over the same timeline, and then did some subset groups within the US as well. The early surge group was defined as anyone with the initial case surge in April, so NY, NJ, CN, MI, MA,RI, DE, VT, PE

europe usa.jpg

So all 4 groups had a fairly similar pattern. Higher CFR from onset to 6/21. Then dramatic declines after 6/22. The US states not hit early showed a more modest decline from the beginning to now. To me, the trend of lower CFR in Europe right now is not far off from what is currently happening in the US, it is just a dramatic shift from where they started. If you look at Europe and the early hit US states, I think that a healthy majority is explained by a lack of testing. And here is the rationale. The antibody studies in New York in late May suggested that about 20% of NYC and 10% of the rest of the state had been exposed. That would work out to about 2.5 M cases in May, Which works out to a CFR of about 1.7%.

The other contributing thing was that the therapeutic options have increased since the middle of June. That is what you see with the Excluded USA group that helped drop the rate from 3.5 to 1.7%.

Lastly, I think this project has given me a better sense of the CFR. the CFR in places that had crisis standards (europe, Eastern US) was probably about 3.5 to 4.0%. CFR with standard medical treatment, before the proven therapeutics was about 1.7 to 2.2%. And the CFR with therapeutics is probably about 0.7 to 1.1%. I am curious to see how this plays out over the next 3 months to see if the most recent trend holds.

[Jarid in Cedar]

I would also add that some of the difference between Europe in group 3 and the US is that most of the US has had their initial surge from July on, or are in the middle of it. This world account for the difference between 0.8%and 1.6%. I have some other data that shows that a states CFR will rise 40-60% when they have their initial surge in cases

[YOhio]

lol. Provo and Orem got put in time out by the governor.

https://www.fox13now.com/news/corona...id-19-measures

[falafel]

lol. Provo and Orem got put in time out by the governor.

https://www.fox13now.com/news/corona...id-19-measures

Yet he won't do a state-wide mask mandate.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Yet he won't do a state-wide mask mandate.

They wouldn't be followed if he did. The crazy has full reign in Utah right now.

[Northwestcoug]

Just in case anyone here still had a lingering hope of a vaccine before New Years', the FDA just shot it down:

The guidance, which is far more rigorous than what was used for emergency clearance of hydroxychloroquine or convalescent plasma, is an effort to shore up confidence in an agency that made missteps during the pandemic. While it is being reviewed by the White House Office of Management and Budget, elements of it are already being shared with vaccine makers. Under it, the FDA would ask manufacturers seeking an emergency authorization — a far quicker process than a formal approval — to follow participants in late-stage clinical trials for a median of at least two months, starting after they receive a second vaccine shot, according to two individuals familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information before it is made public.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...oval-standard/

The bumbling trifecta of the FDA, CDC, and the Trump administration has been embarrassing. But maybe this move by the FDA will help right the perception that the vaccine is being rushed.