At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[wapiti]

quick test results are only valuable if people who get positive results change their lives accordingly. i worry there's a large contingent that wouldn't, either because they're assholes or they don't feel like letting their kids starve.

We pay all employees who are in quarantine or test positive for COVID. It's a lot cheaper than having them hide it, cause an outbreak, and getting a facility shut down. So far we've had four positive tests in the last two months, all traced to an outside source. We have a mask mandate.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Texas' stats the last week are a little funky. They changed reporting requirements for deaths, so there was a dily 4x spike earlier this week. I thought maybe that was the one "true up" that captured all the unreported COVID deaths, but yesterday there was another 2x spike. I suppose the good news is that weekday over weekday (meaning comparing Monday to Monday, Tuesday to Tuesday) , there's an 8-10% decrease the last week. It's a funny way of doing it, but there are definitely patterns based on the day of the week, and I don't ahve a rolling 7-day average line.

Utah's deaths are still incredibly low. I know there was a decent amount of panic a few weeks back, but so far, there hasn't been a huge deaths spike.

I like this site because you can click for the 7 day MA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

[SteelBlue]

1000 deaths per day across the country and creeping up on 1500. Looks like August is going to have awful numbers.

[Jarid in Cedar]

1000 deaths per day across the country and creeping up on 1500. Looks like August is going to have awful numbers.

If we are coming off the current peak this week, which it does appear that way, then the peak for deaths should be around August 20-26. With that in mind, it is not a stretch to see the death count pass 180,000 by the end of August with a small, but real, chance of clearing 200,000.

[SeattleUte]

Yeah I got the old Snout Rout *checks notes* three weeks ago, courtesy of the Great State of Arizona. No test results yet. Meanwhile, the CDC is now stating that viral shedding could be limited to about 10 days of exhibiting symptoms. I did the test as a precaution to be negative when I went back out into the world, but I guess I'm done. F*k off, Arizona, Trump, Doug Ducey, and everybody whose negligence and incompetence caused this clusterf*k.



*update* Just got an email that says the test I took on July 10 did not detect the virus. Splendid. At least I didn't waste 20 days.

I'm sorry you got sick and am really glad you're better. But really, you accept no responsibility at all for catching Covid? You really think it's all Trump's fault?

My opinion, if more people would realize this is up to them, and they are accountable, we'd have much less a problem.

Also, for what it's worth, I always feel better if I can trace a personal misfortune to my own actions. But that's just me.

[Omaha 680]

I like this site because you can click for the 7 day MA

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

If we are coming off the current peak this week, which it does appear that way, then the peak for deaths should be around August 20-26. With that in mind, it is not a stretch to see the death count pass 180,000 by the end of August with a small, but real, chance of clearing 200,000.

Worldometers is the extent of what I consume on covid19 these days. I find the data interesting, and it is helpful to my mental health to look for trends absent commentary from news or politicians.

I'm curious about your prediction of peak death for this "second" US wave at the end of August. Looking at 7 day averages, peak death by country typically occurred 7-14 days after peak infection on the first wave. Obviously it is more complex than that, in particular in the US with a large population spread out in clusters over such a large area. There are multiple outbreaks that are peaking at different times. But when you break it down by state, the 7-14 day lag seems to follow. In states that were ravaged early with the steepest infection curves, the lag was shorter. Looking at the Texas curves you linked for example, peak infection was july 14 and peak death is now or just passed. Right at the edge of the 7-14 typical window.

I know there is a lot of oversimplification above...but what am I missing that would put the expected peak death of our current wave at the end of august?

[Jarid in Cedar]

The 7-14 day lag is what usually cited. And it is what I previously used. But when I was looking at the upswing in cases in the end of June, the upswing in daily deaths was later than the 7-14 days, it was closer to between 14-20 days, and the upswing was more subtle. I only have my own interpretation to explain that change, fuji that this for what it's worth.

One, we are testing earlier in the disease course, so a lead time bias. Second, treatment is improving, which blunts the upswing and may prolong the course of some deaths.

At intermountain, we are actively tracking day 1 of symptoms. The trend we see is that those who require hospitalization typically start to decompensate around day 10-14. And death typically occurs anytime between day 20 to as far out as 2 months.

earlier in the epidemic we were confirming disease closer to day 10 than to day 1. With widely available testing, now, we are probably diagnosing closer to day 3 or 4 of symptoms. That is why I have extended the lag in my personal modeling.

[Commando]

I'm sorry you got sick and am really glad you're better. But really, you accept no responsibility at all for catching Covid? You really think it's all Trump's fault?

My opinion, if more people would realize this is up to them, and they are accountable, we'd have much less a problem.

Also, for what it's worth, I always feel better if I can trace a personal misfortune to my own actions. But that's just me.

Hey Resident Smart Poster and Great Reader-- am I talking about our shit testing or am I talking about actually catching covid? Get back to me on that after you adjust your monocle.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm sorry you got sick and am really glad you're better. But really, you accept no responsibility at all for catching Covid? You really think it's all Trump's fault?

My opinion, if more people would realize this is up to them, and they are accountable, we'd have much less a problem.

Also, for what it's worth, I always feel better if I can trace a personal misfortune to my own actions. But that's just me.

Take this post and add a pic of an American flag and maybe a guy on a tractor gazing at a sunset and you have 50% of my FB feed right now.

[SeattleUte]

Take this post and add a pic of an American flag and maybe a guy on a tractor gazing at a sunset and you have 50% of my FB feed right now.

Wow. You've become such an unremitting jerk. The problem is you think you're so much smarter and progressive than everyone else. And now I know why. You spend too much of your life around nut jobs--you live in Provo, which speaks volumes. So anyone that disagrees with what you've ingrained from CNN must be one of those people.

The other problem is, you're such a condescending mansplainer. I bet women hate you.

[old_gregg]

Wow. You've become such an unremitting jerk. The problem is you think you're so much smarter and progressive than everyone else. And now I know why. You spend too much of your life around nut jobs--you live in Provo, which speaks volumes. So anyone that disagrees with what you've ingrained from CNN must be one of those people.

The other problem is, you're such a condescending mansplainer. I bet women hate you.

ok this is the one i get printed on nice paper and frame

[snowcat]

We pay all employees who are in quarantine or test positive for COVID. It's a lot cheaper than having them hide it, cause an outbreak, and getting a facility shut down. So far we've had four positive tests in the last two months, all traced to an outside source. We have a mask mandate.

You can get a credit on your payroll taxes for COVID related leave up to two weeks per employee. We pay for the missed days up front and eventually get to take a credit on our quarterly payroll tax reports. I should be getting our first check back for this credit soon. We have had several employees out while getting tested and waiting for test results. No positive tests so far.

[SeattleUte]

Take this post and add a pic of an American flag and maybe a guy on a tractor gazing at a sunset and you have 50% of my FB feed right now.

by the way, what I said about individual decision-making being the key to beating Covid is precisely what I have heard the governors of Washington, California, and New York say. So in addition to everything else, you'r just horribly wrong.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm sorry you got sick and am really glad you're better. But really, you accept no responsibility at all for catching Covid? You really think it's all Trump's fault?

My opinion, if more people would realize this is up to them, and they are accountable, we'd have much less a problem.

Also, for what it's worth, I always feel better if I can trace a personal misfortune to my own actions. But that's just me.

Wow. You've become such an unremitting jerk. The problem is you think you're so much smarter and progressive than everyone else. And now I know why. You spend too much of your life around nut jobs--you live in Provo, which speaks volumes. So anyone that disagrees with what you've ingrained from CNN must be one of those people.

The other problem is, you're such a condescending mansplainer. I bet women hate you.

Lol. Posted 90 minutes apart. Without a hint of irony.

[myboynoah]

by the way, what I said about individual decision-making being the key to beating Covid is precisely what I have heard the governors of Washington, California, and New York say. So in addition to everything else, you'r just horribly wrong.

You’re correct. People need to act responsibly for themselves, but also for others by not becoming vectors of infection. Sadly, djt has so muddied the water on this topic that we still have a raging debate over whether or not COVID is a serious threat and how to best stop it.

Some folks are just dumb and need better leadership from the top.

Herman Cain, former Republican presidential hopeful, has died of coronavirus, his website says

While it is unclear where Cain, who was 74, contracted the disease, he was among several thousand people who attended a Trump campaign rally in Tulsa on June 20, most of whom did not wear masks. Cain, who co-chaired Black Voices for Trump, was pictured maskless and not socially distancing at the event.