View Poll Results: At what point did/will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

Voters
45. You may not vote on this poll
  • From the Social Media rumors at the very beginning

    2 4.44%
  • When CCP abruptly stopped arresting journalists, and announced 3 hospitals in 1 week

    5 11.11%
  • When I tried to buy masks online from Amazon, Home Depot & Lowes, only to find everywhere sold out

    1 2.22%
  • When WHO declared a global emergency

    6 13.33%
  • When the US closed its borders to non-americans

    3 6.67%
  • When the lethality passed SARS

    0 0%
  • When they cancel Church in my area

    3 6.67%
  • I'm still not going to panic

    25 55.56%
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Thread: At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

  1. #2311
    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar View Post
    Random lunchtime thought: Imagine all of the dissertations, theses, and papers that will be written in the coming years about government steps, missteps and omissions during this period. Addressing all of the scientific, medical, social, governmental, fasting, and other issues may compel universities to create a College of Covid Studies.
    fify
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  2. #2312
    Social Distance Warrior swampfrog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YOhio View Post
    So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.
    What species of seagull is it that eats viruses again?

  3. #2313

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    Quote Originally Posted by swampfrog View Post
    What species of seagull is it that eats viruses again?
    this one

    Dyslexics are teople poo...

  4. #2314
    Social Distance Warrior swampfrog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flystripper View Post
    this one

    Is that a Chinese Seagull? Or just an expat that has adapted to local custom?

  5. #2315
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    Quote Originally Posted by YOhio View Post
    So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.
    No humor in this thread! SU won't allow it.
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  6. #2316
    It is NOT a monkey! creekster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    The fast won't work. We need science.
    That's gold, Jerry. GOLD!
    PLesa excuse the tpyos.

  7. #2317
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    First give me your tolerable number of deaths for a virus that's killing people with average age of 79.5 and people who generally already have another serious medical condition. 50K? 1M? I'll go with 100K.

    Next, include an assumption that preserving the economy is also extremely important.

    Next, look at the worldwide data and US data in terms of number of cases and lives lost.

    Next, include an assumption that with deaths at 16K and cases at 450K and the economy completely in the toilet, experts are telling us we're reaching the peak in terms of total cases.

    Given that, do you think it's extremely likely that a slightly less extreme reaction to handling the virus could have improved the economic impact while keeping loss of life in the tolerable range?

    (more importantly) Also, do you think it's extremely likely that relaxing restrictions with a priority on kick starting the economy immediately while minimizing risk in as many areas as possible, different guidelines for urban vs less urban areas, wearing masks, work from home where possible, no handshakes, keep school online until the year is out, keep old and vulnerable people quarantined, etc, could all that take place immediately while keeping the loss of life in the tolerable range?

    I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.
    Jay, there is no scenario where we could get through this without massive damage to the economy. If you don't shutdown you get Spain/Italy X10 in terms of overwhelming the medical capacity. If you think people would go on with life as usual while the bodies pile up in the hospitals and morgues, you are crazy. And you would have to convince the entire world to look the other way while the deaths are happening. That is just not realistic and that is why even the top economists are near unanimous that the lockdown was necessary.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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  8. #2318
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar View Post
    Random lunchtime thoughts: Imagine all of the dissertations, theses, and papers that will be written in the coming years about government steps, missteps and omissions during this period. Addressing all of the scientific, medical, social, governmental and other issues may compel universities to create a College of Covid Studies.

    And in the midst of said thoughts, I was reminded of the Charlton Heston movie, The Omega Man, in which a plague has either killed most of the world's citizens or turned them into mutant gangs. Mr. Heston, with his usual understated performance, plays a guy who's immune but ends up saving the world by dying, with his blood being used to provide antibodies to immunize the surviving few. Could happen.

    I remember this film. Loved it.

    I've been thinking of The Plague by Camus. He intended the plague he invented to be a metaphor for fascism, they say. I've been wondering the metaphor that our plague signifies. It's very novelistic. Kills mostly old people. It's main impact may be psychological.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  9. #2319
    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post


    I guess that's good news if we are ready to start strategically opening back up. But do this for another 60 days and watch how quickly those furloughs become permanent layoffs.
    Agreed. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. We are in completely uncharted waters.

    I am surprised that the stock market hasn't dropped lower than it has. Anyone else feeling that way? I am not brave enough to move to cash, but I feel like we are nowhere near the bottom.

    EDIT: This guy agrees with me. Predicts that we will hit the bottom in August.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...-it-2020-04-09
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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  10. #2320

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Agreed. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. We are in completely uncharted waters.

    I am surprised that the stock market hasn't dropped lower than it has. Anyone else feeling that way? I am not brave enough to move to cash, but I feel like we are nowhere near the bottom.

    EDIT: This guy agrees with me. Predicts that we will hit the bottom in August.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/st...-it-2020-04-09
    Absolutely agree we are still a ways from the bottom. I don't think enough economic pain has been shared yet. Kind of like the lag between known COVID-19 cases and deaths. Plus there's a lot of money being sent out from the government. I wouldn't be surprised if the market goes down for another year or so.

  11. #2321

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    But a lot of it depends on how fast we can restart things, and how many changes in spending become more permanent, and how COVID-19 reemerges for a second round.

  12. #2322

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo Diddley View Post
    Absolutely agree we are still a ways from the bottom. I don't think enough economic pain has been shared yet. Kind of like the lag between known COVID-19 cases and deaths. Plus there's a lot of money being sent out from the government. I wouldn't be surprised if the market goes down for another year or so.
    Q2 earning announcements in the summer and Q3 in the fall will result in the market bouncing along the bottom. The recovery this week isn't based on anything other than hope.
    Dyslexics are teople poo...

  13. #2323
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    This is happening all over.

    How Viktor Orbán Used the Coronavirus to Seize More Power
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/lette...ize-more-power
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  14. #2324
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.
    Jay, I realized my original post came off as mean so I deleted it, but not before you had already quoted it. I apologize. Peace, brother.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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  15. #2325
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Jay, there is no scenario where we could get through this without massive damage to the economy. If you don't shutdown you get Spain/Italy X10 in terms of overwhelming the medical capacity. If you think people would go on with life as usual while the bodies pile up in the hospitals and morgues, you are crazy. And you would have to convince the entire world to look the other way while the deaths are happening. That is just not realistic and that is why even the top economists are near unanimous that the lockdown was necessary.
    I'm just going to say this. It's just a hunch as this is not my field. But I have to say that I've been skeptical of this claim that our system would become overloaded. Seattle is about as occupied as any city, and we have vacant space all over. It turns out the country has had more than enough capacity, and since the clamp down the models have bene continuously revised downward even assuming the clampdown. Why? Probably the death rate is overstated because they assumed the case death rate to be the total death rate. Or, Covid is not as contagious as assumed--less likely. We aren't Italy. We wouldn't have left people who could be saved to die without care. Even in Italy, what was happening was essentially euthanasia. If a patient has been two weeks in a coma and his organs are shutting down, chances of his survival are zilch. Yes, it would have stressed the health care industry, and distracted them for more profitable work (as it has).

    If my hunch is right we've created a huge burden on the rest of the economy on behalf of the health care economy.

    Not saying this is fact. It's opinion based on hunch.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  16. #2326

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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring

    https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

    "Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame."
    Could be a result of low testing? It almost surely is. Sweden is middle of the pack in Europe for deaths per capita so far. If not performing strict lockdowns is sure to lead to mass death and overwhelming of the system, surely they would be spiking by now. It's almost as if every population is unique and there is not a one size fits all solution.

    Maybe Sweden will still be a disaster. But it will provide a very interesting counterfactual argument if they turn out ok.
    Last edited by Omaha 680; 04-09-2020 at 06:16 PM.

  17. #2327
    вот так штука CardiacCoug's Avatar
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    Would be cool if we continue a counter of deaths from heart disease every day on CNN. Every day in big numbers you could have 1700 DEATHS, 1800 DEATHS every day and then slowly climb to 700,000 over the course of the year.

    I totally agree with closing schools and especially closing church but people are crazy if they don’t think losing your job, losing health insurance, etc doesn’t ultimately also lead to tens of thousands of early deaths. I think at this point my vote would be to not resume schools until the fall but to resume most other normal life activities sometime in mid-May.

  18. #2328
    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    Would be cool if we continue a counter of deaths from heart disease every day on CNN. Every day in big numbers you could have 1700 DEATHS, 1800 DEATHS every day and then slowly climb to 700,000 over the course of the year.

    I totally agree with closing schools and especially closing church but people are crazy if they don’t think losing your job, losing health insurance, etc doesn’t ultimately also lead to tens of thousands of early deaths. I think at this point my vote would be to not resume schools until the fall but to resume most other normal life activities sometime in mid-May.
    Not reopening the schools will cause more fatalities than COVID-19. Kids and parents were never intended to spend this much time together.
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  19. #2329
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    How do you tell how many people are infected in a community with out testing everyone? Easy, just take a look at their crap:

    Coronavirus traces found in Massachusetts wastewater at levels far higher than expected

    Coronavirus was detected in Massachusetts sewage at higher levels than expected, suggesting there are many more undiagnosed patients than previously known, according to a new study.
    [...]
    The researchers, along with a team from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard, and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, analyzed the samples and found the number of coronavirus particles was on par with if there were 2,300 people infected with the virus.

    But at the time of tests, there were only 446 confirmed cases in the region, according to the study.
    [...]
    https://nypost.com/2020/04/09/corona...ts-wastewater/
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  20. #2330
    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    Would be cool if we continue a counter of deaths from heart disease every day on CNN. Every day in big numbers you could have 1700 DEATHS, 1800 DEATHS every day and then slowly climb to 700,000 over the course of the year.

    I totally agree with closing schools and especially closing church but people are crazy if they don’t think losing your job, losing health insurance, etc doesn’t ultimately also lead to tens of thousands of early deaths. I think at this point my vote would be to not resume schools until the fall but to resume most other normal life activities sometime in mid-May.
    Yes, some kinds of death rates go up, but others go down. It is weird.

    This is one of the best articles on it I have found.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

    In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York’s Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country’s history didn’t correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people — babies included — died when the economy prospered1.

    William Ogburn and Dorothy Thomas were sceptical enough to delve further. Would accounting for a possible lag in time between the downturn and the rise in deaths change the outcome? Or perhaps deaths had simply been recorded more rigorously during boom times? No, and no. Their peculiar finding seemed to hold.
    Even numbers from the global financial crisis of the late 2000s follow suit. José Tapia Granados, a health economist at Drexel University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has calculated that death rates in Europe dropped faster during this downturn, known as the Great Recession, than before the crisis hit. The trend held even in his birth country of Spain, where unemployment topped 20%.

    “Everyone was expecting a strong increase in mortality. Again, it was the opposite,” he says. Now he calls the link between recessions and lowered death rates, “almost as strong as the evidence that cigarette smoking is bad for health”.
    Disclaimer for SU: I AM NOT SAYING RECESSIONS ARE GOOD!

    EDIT: This phenomenon seems to hold for wealthy countries, not poor countries.
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  21. #2331
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    Could be a result of low testing? It almost surely is. Sweden is middle of the pack in Europe for deaths per capita so far. If not performing strict lockdowns is sure to lead to mass death and overwhelming of the system, surely they would be spiking by now. It's almost as if every population is unique and there is not a one size fits all solution.

    Maybe Sweden will still be a disaster. But it will provide a very interesting counterfactual argument if they turn out ok.
    There was going to be a spike anywhere, because China was lying about it and it was circulating for months before people started being careful. Denmark residents are taking precautions. They’re just not locked down.

    It’s dismaying to see the transparent glee evinced by some as Denmark’s deaths (predictably) increase.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  22. #2332

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    I found out from a client today that some dickhead at his wife's place of employment was coming into work all of last week with a fever. Sure enough he had the Corona, they found out last Thursday. Yesterday or today a second employee tested positive.

    When I think about this lockdown, I've tended to think about the virus as some hidden thing lurking with asymptomatic people. But an equally large problem are the assholes like this employee who showed up for days spreading this around in an enclosed environment that has about 50 people around at any given time.
    Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

  23. #2333

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    Could be a result of low testing? It almost surely is. Sweden is middle of the pack in Europe for deaths per capita so far. If not performing strict lockdowns is sure to lead to mass death and overwhelming of the system, surely they would be spiking by now. It's almost as if every population is unique and there is not a one size fits all solution.

    Maybe Sweden will still be a disaster. But it will provide a very interesting counterfactual argument if they turn out ok.
    What happens if this virus is similar to the flu in that it returns year after year and the whole notion of herd immunity is pointless?

    Frankly, Sweden isn't turning out OK. Their death rate is 7.68% and the economy is being controlled more and more by the government and not capitalism. The Swedish government is offering the same types of stimulus packages as other countries:

    https://www.government.se/government...-for-covid-19/

    Why, because the epidemic will have a terrible effect on an economy regardless.
    Last edited by tooblue; 04-09-2020 at 07:31 PM.

  24. #2334

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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    What happens if this virus is similar to the flu in that it returns year after year and the whole notion of herd immunity is pointless?

    Frankly, Sweden isn't turning out OK. Their death rate is 7.68% and the economy is being controlled more and more by the government and not capitalism. The Swedish government is offering the same types of stimulus packages as other countries:

    https://www.government.se/government...-for-covid-19/

    Why, because the epidemic will have a terrible effect on an economy regardless.
    Their death rate is not 7.68% and it's weird to insist that. Their system is currently not being overwhelmed (I'm not insisting it won't be), so what would be the reason for them to have a higher death rate rate then their neighbors at this point? Because they aren't locked down? Does the virus know that and get offended so it attacks swedes more aggressively? I don't know if this will backfire on them or not but proponents of long term lockdowns seem to insist they know it will even though there is no firm evidence of that yet.

    I looked up their stimulus because I was curious. Without getting bogged down by details, it is not on the same planet as what we are doing...especially since there are many in congress who want double or triple what we have already spent.

  25. #2335
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    Their death rate is not 7.68% and it's weird to insist that. Their system is currently not being overwhelmed (I'm not insisting it won't be), so what would be the reason for them to have a higher death rate rate then their neighbors at this point? Because they aren't locked down? Does the virus know that and get offended so it attacks swedes more aggressively? I don't know if this will backfire on them or not but proponents of long term lockdowns seem to insist they know it will even though there is no firm evidence of that yet.

    I looked up their stimulus because I was curious. Without getting bogged down by details, it is not on the same planet as what we are doing...especially since there are many in congress who want double or triple what we have already spent.
    Their death per confirmed case rate is 6.56 percent. That’s not the death rate, you are correct.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  26. #2336

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    Their death rate is not 7.68% and it's weird to insist that. Their system is currently not being overwhelmed (I'm not insisting it won't be), so what would be the reason for them to have a higher death rate rate then their neighbors at this point? Because they aren't locked down? Does the virus know that and get offended so it attacks swedes more aggressively? I don't know if this will backfire on them or not but proponents of long term lockdowns seem to insist they know it will even though there is no firm evidence of that yet.

    I looked up their stimulus because I was curious. Without getting bogged down by details, it is not on the same planet as what we are doing...especially since there are many in congress who want double or triple what we have already spent.

    Per the linked article in Time magazine: "Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus." There is not ambiguity there. Again, per the linked article that is 4 points higher than the US.

    You are splitting hairs with regards to stimulus. Of course the Swedish government package isn't the same. Sweden has a population of 10.23 million versus a US population of over 300 million. Regardless, that does not change the fact the Swedish government's motives are the same: to stimulate their economy. Bluntly, that is not allowing capitalism to do its thing. You have to ask yourself why ... because economies will struggle regardless, meaning Sweden isn't OK by virtue of the fact they are making the same policy decisions as other countries.

  27. #2337

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    Their death per confirmed case rate is 6.56 percent. That’s not the death rate, you are correct.
    Per the linked article in Time magazine: "Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus."

  28. #2338
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Look at New York’s case load, and it’s still not overwhelmed and there’s no prospect of that happening, and you realize how far California and Texas and Michigan are from being overwhelmed.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  29. #2339
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tooblue View Post
    Per the linked article in Time magazine: "Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus."
    I got my figures from the Coronavirus meter at this time. I don’t know Time’s source, and I don’t read Time.The point is it’s the case fatality rate and not the overall death rate.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  30. #2340

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    I got my figures from the Coronavirus meter at this time. I don’t know Time’s source, and I don’t read Time.The point is it’s the case fatality rate and not the overall death rate.
    You misspoke and now you are moving the goal posts

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