View Poll Results: At what point did/will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

Voters
45. You may not vote on this poll
  • From the Social Media rumors at the very beginning

    2 4.44%
  • When CCP abruptly stopped arresting journalists, and announced 3 hospitals in 1 week

    5 11.11%
  • When I tried to buy masks online from Amazon, Home Depot & Lowes, only to find everywhere sold out

    1 2.22%
  • When WHO declared a global emergency

    6 13.33%
  • When the US closed its borders to non-americans

    3 6.67%
  • When the lethality passed SARS

    0 0%
  • When they cancel Church in my area

    3 6.67%
  • I'm still not going to panic

    25 55.56%
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Thread: At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

  1. #2281
    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    I'm pretty good with logic, so let me explain it to you if it's puzzling.

    If you wreck the economy over a virus that looks like it's going to kill far less than 100K lives, then it's extremely likely you could have handled the problem without wrecking the economy. So you say well nobody could know, we had to act conservative. OK. Maybe. But now that we're this far into it and the experts are saying we're hitting the peak and have it under control, it's time for people to go back to work and stop with this nonsense like Utah considering a lockdown.


    Seems like the most logical thing to conclude is that the lockdown is working as advertised. This stuff isn't linear you know. It is exponential.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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  2. #2282

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post


    Seems like the most logical thing to conclude is that the lockdown is working as advertised. This stuff isn't linear you know. It is exponential.
    It's actually working way better than originally advertised while many are complaining we haven't gone far enough. So what are we to conclude from that? You can go several ways with it, but what Jay and SU are saying definitely resonates with me.

  3. #2283
    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Some good news from that liberal rag, the Wall Street Journal.

    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
    "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
    "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

  4. #2284
    Corporate lackey for Jesus Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    So what’s your point? Trying to follow your logic here, because apparently you’ve backed off of your original position that the economy counts for nothing, that it’s only the concern of billionaires (as you wrote that from a position of 100% economic security).

    Are you still saying this has to go on indefinitely? Until Covid is completely gone? If not, how will what we have to do differ from wha the could have done in the first first place.
    That is three straw men in two sentences. Impressive.

    I never said any of those things.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
    "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
    "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

  5. #2285

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northwestcoug View Post
    You're hilarious. The west coast states have by and large done a solid job managing the pandemic. They are not New York, New Jersey, Florida, or Louisiana, in part due to their leadership. The governors have been pretty consistent with their message. They are closer to statesman-like than any of the governors who've been parroting your 'cure is worse than the disease' message.
    When Governor Inslee banned fishing he jumped the shark.

  6. #2286
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    Depends on the county. For example in Dallas county Clay Jenkins (the county judge or executive for the county) was "dethroned" for being too much of a nazi and closing things down, extending the stay at home order until may 20th, etc:


    https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/op...ay-20/2345191/

    Damn Democrat.
    This is a perfect example of the people not standing for stupidity and why SU needs to have faith. Jenkins is a disaster and has been raked over the coals (rightfully so) multiple times by Gov Abbott. But Dallas isn't going to shut everything down for 1.5 months. The Texans won't stand for it and it's a stupid decision. Maybe if things don't get better they can reevaluate, but I imagine come early May most stores will reopen and most services will return. The tricky part will be restaurants and bars. I imagine they'll reopen but with stricter guidelines.

    This won't go on forever. People won't allow it to.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  7. #2287
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    I'm pretty good with logic, so let me explain it to you if it's puzzling.

    If you wreck the economy over a virus that looks like it's going to kill far less than 100K lives, then it's extremely likely you could have handled the problem without wrecking the economy. So you say well nobody could know, we had to act conservative. OK. Maybe. But now that we're this far into it and the experts are saying we're hitting the peak and have it under control, it's time for people to go back to work and stop with this nonsense like Utah considering a lockdown.
    Right, but it's under control because of the measures put in place. I don't think we want to end up like northern Italy. You get it under control then slowly turn the economy back on. If we all just go back to crowding into mass transit, attending sporting events, and filling up bars then we'll be right back where we started, with normally healthy people in the ICU. You know that a lot of people under the age of 50 are requiring oxygen in the ICU to beat this, right? The herd mentality was quickly abandonned because it's a dumb idea with horrifying results.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  8. #2288

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post


    Seems like the most logical thing to conclude is that the lockdown is working as advertised. This stuff isn't linear you know. It is exponential.
    First give me your tolerable number of deaths for a virus that's killing people with average age of 79.5 and people who generally already have another serious medical condition. 50K? 1M? I'll go with 100K.

    Next, include an assumption that preserving the economy is also extremely important.

    Next, look at the worldwide data and US data in terms of number of cases and lives lost.

    Next, include an assumption that with deaths at 16K and cases at 450K and the economy completely in the toilet, experts are telling us we're reaching the peak in terms of total cases.

    Given that, do you think it's extremely likely that a slightly less extreme reaction to handling the virus could have improved the economic impact while keeping loss of life in the tolerable range?

    (more importantly) Also, do you think it's extremely likely that relaxing restrictions with a priority on kick starting the economy immediately while minimizing risk in as many areas as possible, different guidelines for urban vs less urban areas, wearing masks, work from home where possible, no handshakes, keep school online until the year is out, keep old and vulnerable people quarantined, etc, could all that take place immediately while keeping the loss of life in the tolerable range?

    I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.
    Last edited by jay santos; 04-09-2020 at 02:05 PM.

  9. #2289

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Some good news from that liberal rag, the Wall Street Journal.



    I guess that's good news if we are ready to start strategically opening back up. But do this for another 60 days and watch how quickly those furloughs become permanent layoffs.

  10. #2290

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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    Right, but it's under control because of the measures put in place. I don't think we want to end up like northern Italy. You get it under control then slowly turn the economy back on. If we all just go back to crowding into mass transit, attending sporting events, and filling up bars then we'll be right back where we started, with normally healthy people in the ICU. You know that a lot of people under the age of 50 are requiring oxygen in the ICU to beat this, right? The herd mentality was quickly abandonned because it's a dumb idea with horrifying results.
    There's a large middle area between complete economic shut down and normal life.

  11. #2291

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    First give me your tolerable number of deaths for a virus that's killing people with average age of 79.5 and people who generally already have another serious medical condition. 50K? 1M? I'll go with 100K.

    Next, include an assumption that preserving the economy is also extremely important.

    Next, look at the worldwide data and US data in terms of number of cases and lives lost.

    Next, include an assumption that with deaths at 16K and cases at 450K and the economy completely in the toilet, experts are telling us we're reaching the peak in terms of total cases.

    Given that, do you think it's extremely likely that a slightly less extreme reaction to handling the virus could have improved the economic impact while keeping loss of life in the tolerable range?

    (more importantly) Also, do you think it's extremely likely that relaxing restrictions with a priority on kick starting the economy immediately while minimizing risk in as many areas as possible, different guidelines for urban vs less urban areas, wearing masks, work from home where possible, no handshakes, keep school online until the year is out, keep old and vulnerable people quarantined, etc, could all that take place immediately while keeping the loss of life in the tolerable range?

    I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.
    If we're building another model, you have to include the amount of younger people with comorbidities you're willing to lose when hospital systems are broken taking care of elderly patients with COVID.

    Also, include the number of patients younger than your 79.5 year statistic who are less healthy, that will die when infected with COVID. These are not serious medical conditions, mind you, just less healthy than you or me (assuming!). And I'm not talking about nearly retired. I'm referring to 40-50 year range.

    Look, when this comes all out in the wash we will likely find that deaths will be lower than many estimates. And we'll also likely conclude that many areas in the US would not have needed as stringent measures as urban areas. But this exercise has always been more nuanced than what is being portrayed here today. It isn't all economy or all saving every life. It's mitigating multiple small catastrophes in the health system to avert a much more serious generalized catastrophe that would also damage the economy.

  12. #2292

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    Quote Originally Posted by Northwestcoug View Post
    If we're building another model, you have to include the amount of younger people with comorbidities you're willing to lose when hospital systems are broken taking care of elderly patients with COVID.

    Also, include the number of patients younger than your 79.5 year statistic who are less healthy, that will die when infected with COVID. These are not serious medical conditions, mind you, just less healthy than you or me (assuming!). And I'm not talking about nearly retired. I'm referring to 40-50 year range.

    Look, when this comes all out in the wash we will likely find that deaths will be lower than many estimates. And we'll also likely conclude that many areas in the US would not have needed as stringent measures as urban areas. But this exercise has always been more nuanced than what is being portrayed here today. It isn't all economy or all saving every life. It's mitigating multiple small catastrophes in the health system to avert a much more serious generalized catastrophe that would also damage the economy.
    Glad we agree. So let's make immediate changes starting now to reverse the economic impact of these unnecessary measures.

  13. #2293

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post


    I guess that's good news if we are ready to start strategically opening back up. But do this for another 60 days and watch how quickly those furloughs become permanent layoffs.
    the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.
    Last edited by Flystripper; 04-09-2020 at 02:24 PM.
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  14. #2294
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    There's a large middle area between complete economic shut down and normal life.
    Yep, I've got three more weeks of this partial (grocery stores, construction companies, Oil drillers, restauarants (take out only), liquor stores, gas stations, etc. are all open for business) shut down and then things will open up more and more. When we open up the economy, we'll have more testing capability, more PPE, more ventilators, and more acute awareness of social distancing. Things will be fine. Until then, the government is handing out money like crazy to small business owners. It's rich people like SU and Walter that are getting pounded in the market (well, not really now since stocks are reviving) that are doing the most complaining.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  15. #2295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flystripper View Post
    the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.
    Doubt it but they certainly will take longer to get back. I can't imagine those fields being back to normal until a vaccine is available, which is at least a year away. So yes, they will take a big hit but as soon as a vaccine is available it'll be business as usual for everyone everywhere in the US.
    "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

  16. #2296

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    First give me your tolerable number of deaths for a virus that's killing people with average age of 79.5 and people who generally already have another serious medical condition. 50K? 1M? I'll go with 100K.

    Next, include an assumption that preserving the economy is also extremely important.

    Next, look at the worldwide data and US data in terms of number of cases and lives lost.

    Next, include an assumption that with deaths at 16K and cases at 450K and the economy completely in the toilet, experts are telling us we're reaching the peak in terms of total cases.

    Given that, do you think it's extremely likely that a slightly less extreme reaction to handling the virus could have improved the economic impact while keeping loss of life in the tolerable range?

    (more importantly) Also, do you think it's extremely likely that relaxing restrictions with a priority on kick starting the economy immediately while minimizing risk in as many areas as possible, different guidelines for urban vs less urban areas, wearing masks, work from home where possible, no handshakes, keep school online until the year is out, keep old and vulnerable people quarantined, etc, could all that take place immediately while keeping the loss of life in the tolerable range?

    I understand why hipster morons on fb are still exaggerating the need for economic shutdown to control a virus that's taken 16K lives, but I don't understand why smart people here are doing so.
    because it's taken 16k lives in part because of the economic shutdown (to the extent the economy is shut down). not to mention, you can't work backwards like this--you're assuming that there can and will be only one peak in the morbidity distribution. even one "super spreader" can change outcomes for a given locality in a significant way.

    by the way, for those advocating for something other than the quarantine orders, what specific activities would you permit that would constitute a middle of the road approach?
    Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

  17. #2297

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    Glad we agree. So let's make immediate changes starting now to reverse the economic impact of these unnecessary measures.
    With death rates still climbing in many urban centers, and with many rural areas not experiencing their peak, what immediate changes are you comfortable making now?

  18. #2298

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flystripper View Post
    the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.
    Great. My 18 year-old son will be sitting around even longer looking for a job.

  19. #2299
    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flystripper View Post
    the majority in hospitality, entertainment, food service, and other consumer discretionary will be permanent.
    I'm wondering what your foreseeing here. Do you think there are going to be less places that offer the services and less demand? Or will the way they offer services change to reduce the amount of labor needed?

  20. #2300
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_gregg View Post

    by the way, for those advocating for something other than the quarantine orders, what specific activities would you permit that would constitute a middle of the road approach?
    This isn't our burden. We're private citizens who didn't cause this, the government did if anyone's at fault, including the government having shut down half of the economy. But opening it up is not as daunting as it seems. We let people smoke, and put warnings on cigarette packs. We let people drive, and have rules of the road. Open it up with strict guidelines about meetings, density in restaurants, working conditions in specific industries, exemptions and indefinite unemployment for workers with vulnerabilities. Then leave it up to people to make their own decisions. Most people will figure out if they haven't already that they have lost more than they have to gain during this shutdown. People will assume the risk. They will also be responsible for their vulnerable loved ones. It's called personal accountability.

    I don't have all the answers, there is much more to it than this. But I don't have all the data and this isn't my field. But I have said more about this than any politician has had the gumption to do.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  21. #2301

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    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    I'm wondering what your foreseeing here. Do you think there are going to be less places that offer the services and less demand? Or will the way they offer services change to reduce the amount of labor needed?
    Less demand and eventually less places to offer services because of less demand. The demand will shift to other channels and eventually labor will follow, but consumers are going to be slow to consume in the traditional way. There will be long lasting structural changes to the economy as we come out of this.

    Also when we try and re-open in 2-3 months and there is zero availability in existing PPP facilities, businesses will fail. It will be an unintended consequence of this government program. In order to have the PPP loan transitioned to a grant, businesses can't fire people. So when retail, restaurants, movie theaters, hotels, ets are slow to recover because people's behavior is permanently changed or is slow to "get back to normal" revenue will be significantly down. Without a quick recovery, companies will be faced with the choice of laying people off and being saddled with more debt than is prudent, or keeping people on but having a labor cost structure that is not aligned with revenue levels.

    Not every industry will be impacted in the same way but these sectors will be a drag on the overall economy for a long time.
    Last edited by Flystripper; 04-09-2020 at 03:18 PM.
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  22. #2302
    Senior Member Eddie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    This isn't our burden. We're private citizens who didn't cause this, the government did if anyone's at fault, including the government having shut down half of the economy. But opening it up is not as daunting as it seems. We let people smoke, and put warnings on cigarette packs. We let people drive, and have rules of the road. Open it up with strict guidelines about meetings, density in restaurants, working conditions in specific industries, exemptions and indefinite unemployment for workers with vulnerabilities. Then leave it up to people to make their own decisions. Most people will figure out if they haven't already that they have lost more than they have to gain during this shutdown. People will assume the risk. They will also be responsible for their vulnerable loved ones. It's called personal accountability.

    I don't have all the answers, there is much more to it than this. But I don't have all the data and this isn't my field. But I have said more about this than any politician has had the gumption to do.
    People like you might assume the risk. I've been astounded by the number of people who are still pretty freaked out and upset anytime they see another human walking down the sidewalk in front of their home or not wearing a mask.

    Sure - there are also people on the other extreme who think we're ready to end all shutdowns immediately and return to normal tomorrow, as well as a large group in the middle who would continue to take precautions while easing back into normal functioning. But I think you underestimate the number who are terrified of this thing and haven't even left their home in the last two weeks. There are more than a handful in my neighborhood, at work, etc. Nationwide I don't think it's an insignificant number.

  23. #2303
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie View Post
    People like you might assume the risk. I've been astounded by the number of people who are still pretty freaked out and upset anytime they see another human walking down the sidewalk in front of their home or not wearing a mask.

    Sure - there are also people on the other extreme who think we're ready to end all shutdowns immediately and return to normal tomorrow, as well as a large group in the middle who would continue to take precautions while easing back into normal functioning. But I think you underestimate the number who are terrified of this thing and haven't even left their home in the last two weeks. There are more than a handful in my neighborhood, at work, etc. Nationwide I don't think it's an insignificant number.
    Ignorance. These same people don't realize all the different ways they could be killed by unlikely freak accidents. Probably some of them smoke and ride motorcycles. But people who don't want to take a risk bigger than driving a car to have a career or a job, it's their decision. John Madden takes trains everywhere because he's scared of flying (trains may be more dangerous--this may be an urban legend but servers as illustration here). It's his choice.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  24. #2304

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    Ignorance. These same people don't realize all the different ways they could be killed by unlikely freak accidents. Probably some of them smoke and ride motorcycles. But people who don't want to take a risk bigger than driving a car to have a career or a job, it's their decision. John Madden takes trains everywhere because he's scared of flying (trains may be more dangerous--this may be an urban legend but servers as illustration here). It's his choice.
    Sweden's Relaxed Approach to the Coronavirus Could Already Be Backfiring

    https://time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/

    "Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame."

  25. #2305

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    So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.

  26. #2306
    Faith crisis consultant SeattleUte's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YOhio View Post
    So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.
    The fast won't work. We need science.
    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

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  27. #2307
    Senior Member Eddie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YOhio View Post
    So the real question is how quickly COVID-19 is destroyed after the fast tomorrow. I think Monday at the latest.
    I'm going with Sunday. It's biblical. Good Friday is the day of the fast - and the day that Christ was crucified. Then he was resurrected on Sunday. It only makes sense that there would be despair mixed with some small amount of hope for the same amount of time that Christ was in the tomb, then at the time he left the tomb - saving us from death through the resurrection - we'll be saved from the coronavirus.

    It just makes the most sense.

  28. #2308
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    Random lunchtime thoughts: Imagine all of the dissertations, theses, and papers that will be written in the coming years about government steps, missteps and omissions during this period. Addressing all of the scientific, medical, social, governmental and other issues may compel universities to create a College of Covid Studies.

    And in the midst of said thoughts, I was reminded of the Charlton Heston movie, The Omega Man, in which a plague has either killed most of the world's citizens or turned them into mutant gangs. Mr. Heston, with his usual understated performance, plays a guy who's immune but ends up saving the world by dying, with his blood being used to provide antibodies to immunize the surviving few. Could happen.

    Last edited by PaloAltoCougar; 04-09-2020 at 03:50 PM.

  29. #2309
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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    The fast won't work. We need science.
    O ye of little faith.
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
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  30. #2310

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeattleUte View Post
    The fast won't work. We need science.
    agreed

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