At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Donuthole]

I need to get into the butt mask business, pronto.

Do you think these filter out the virus? Or just the odor?

https://www.amazon.com/Underwear-fla.../dp/B01BYGTP8G

[cowboy]

Cattle market has been in the crapper since the news broke in mid-January. Opened limit-down this morning. Calves and slaughter cattle marketed this winter have lost between $80 and $140 per head in value because of this. Thank goodness for the futures market.

[Pelado]

Do you think these filter out the virus? Or just the odor?

https://www.amazon.com/Underwear-fla.../dp/B01BYGTP8G

Doesn't matter.

Ad campaign: "I haven't transmitted or contracted coronavirus ever since I started using these charcoal filters. If you want to protect your family, why don't you give them a try? As an added benefit, these filters also reduce or eliminate odors from flatulence, making your home free from odor and coronavirus."

[myboynoah]

So, they say the death rate for this coronavirus is "somewhere around 2%." I keep hearing that, but then it is always qualified by "but, you know, these are complicated matters so it hard to really know right now." Using the latest Johns Hopkins tracker as a base, I count these numbers:

Total infected - 79,553
Total recovered - 25,215
Total deaths - 2,628

To do a simple death rate, one might divide total deaths by total infected, which pops out a death rate of 3.3%.

But shouldn't the more correct denominator be the total number of infected that have passed through the infection "to the other side," meaning total deaths plus total recovered? In other words, there are still 51,710 infected that are in treatment (79,553 minus 25,215 minus 2,628) who could either recover or die. If we use total deaths plus total recovered (25,215 plus 2,628 = 27,843) as the denominator, we get a death rate of 10.6%.

Instead of claiming a death rate of "somewhere around 2%," shouldn't it be closer to 10%?

I know these are "complicated matters," but these numbers seem pretty clear. What am I doing wrong here?

Help me Obi Wan pelagius, you're my only hope!

[wapiti]

So, they say the death rate for this coronavirus is "somewhere around 2%." I keep hearing that, but then it is always qualified by "but, you know, these are complicated matters so it hard to really know right now." Using the latest Johns Hopkins tracker as a base, I count these numbers:

Total infected - 79,553
Total recovered - 25,215
Total deaths - 2,628

To do a simple death rate, one might divide total deaths by total infected, which pops out a death rate of 3.3%.

But shouldn't the more correct denominator be the total number of infected that have passed through the infection "to the other side," meaning total deaths plus total recovered? In other words, there are still 51,710 infected that are in treatment (79,553 minus 25,215 minus 2,628) who could either recover or die. If we use total deaths plus total recovered (25,215 plus 2,628 = 27,843) as the denominator, we get a death rate of 10.6%.

Instead of claiming a death rate of "somewhere around 2%," shouldn't it be closer to 10%?

I know these are "complicated matters," but these numbers seem pretty clear. What am I doing wrong here?

Help me Obi Wan pelagius, you're my only hope!

I'm no expert here, but I think when they say "complicated matters" it means the numbers suck and they know it.

[Eddie]

My wife is taking my daughters to a BTS (KPop) concert in Cali at the end of April. If/when that concert gets cancelled - I'll be forced to take Corona virus EXTREMELY seriously.

[myboynoah]

Good hell, what an idiot.

Here are the steps Trump should take to counter coronavirus fears

Trump could be assisted in this effort by the oldest trick in the Beltway book: a special commission. Led by Vice President Mike Pence, the commission could be co-chaired by a bipartisan group of the nation’s smartest, most effective governors — perhaps Arizona’s Doug Ducey (R), Florida’s Ron DeSantis (R) and Rhode Island’s Gina Raimondo (D) — and include leaders of great medical institutions such as the Mayo and Cleveland clinics, Mass General and M.D. Anderson. It should also include representatives from social media platforms and broad membership organizations such as the Service Employees International Union and Catholic Charities. The commission’s purpose ought to be publicizing best practices and credentialing best information. Knocking down fake news and fake “cures” as well as hysteria and overblown estimates of fatality rates are crucial ends in themselves.

That's right. There is no crisis in the world that a good commission can't effectively quell, especially in this fast-paced social media environment.

Hammering home the facts of where the virus has struck and the science behind its levels of contagion, morbidity and mortality would do a world of good for the world at large and the global economy, which freezes up in the face of fear. (Fear was the driver behind market drops like those Monday in the United States and earlier retractions in Asia.) Public health is the first concern, but every pundit knows that if anything like what happened in 1918 plays out in the United States, Trump faces the sort of political disaster that became attached to Bush in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Wrong again you dope. Disruptions in supply chains, downturns in market demand and sales because people are ordered to stay home or in their villages, and a near stoppage in international travel in Asia are the reasons the market dropped.

And how is this type of ridiculous tweet going to help anything?

Embedded Tweet

[myboynoah]

Interesting

Bracing for virus surge, Japan takes different approach from China

Bracing for a surge in coronavirus cases, Japan announced a new policy on Tuesday designed to focus medical care on the most serious cases, while urging people with mild symptoms to treat themselves at home.

It is radically different approach from that adopted by China, which has relied on locking down entire cities and keeping tens of millions of people virtual prisoners in their own homes, but it’s one that wins support from many medical experts.

The basic premise is that the spread of the virus can’t be stopped, so efforts need to focus on slowing the pace of transmission and reducing mortality rates.

[myboynoah]

White House struggles to contain public alarm over coronavirus

White House officials often face a tricky balance of trying to assure the public while also not dismissing threats that could become calamities. The Dow is still up markedly from 2017, when Trump took office, but it closed Tuesday at its lowest level since October, before the coronavirus was even detected in China.

“You don’t want to overly feed the darkness, but if you seem like all you do is happy talk then you lose credibility,” said Gene Sperling, who served as a top economic adviser during the Clinton and Obama administrations. “You get a three-hour high from your happy talk, but lose the long-term ability to be seen as serious, factual and potentially reassuring at a later point when it might be justified. This White House may already be in danger of losing the capacity to be seen as serious.”

. . . . . . . .

Kudlow has argued repeatedly that while China may be hurt economically, the impact on U.S. growth is likely to be minimal, citing robust consumer confidence and data showing domestic manufacturing remains strong. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has made similar assessments, telling Fox Business last month “I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America, some to [the] U.S., probably some to Mexico as well.”

Their comments come amid widespread concern that the shuttering of numerous Chinese firms could wreak havoc with American companies’ domestic supply chain. U.S. companies do not appear to be cheering the economic disruption. In fact, many are fretting that it could have a severe impact on their operations.

Global markets also appeared to brush off the pronouncements of economic stability from Kudlow and Trump.

“The CDC is probably more credible about the risks from the coronavirus than anything the Trump economic officials say,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The market is coming down on the CDC.”

This is what one reaps by tweeting falsehoods everyday since being elected. Buyers and sellers on Wall Street and around the world are not the loyal minions showing up at political rallies.

I also don't understand Kudlow's and Ross' comments about China and jobs moving back to the U.S. Companies are hurting now because supply chains are broken. Those take 18 mos to 2 yrs to rebuild, even if they decide to relocate back to the U.S.

[Katy Lied]

These are my personal triggers:

1. They still don't know how it is transmitted.
2. They still don't know the incubation period, or when someone can be considered safe to be around others. (see #1)
2. The coronavirus test is inconclusive. This morning a woman who previously tested negative 9 times, contracted the disease. (see #1)
3. The thermal scanners are bogus and are very inaccurate. The US with all of its thermal scans at 11 airports have detected fever, and barred passengers from entering the US exactly 0 times. Some of the scanners you actually touch the forehead, and then the next person's forehead, and so on. Arent these thermal checks just contributing to spreading?
4. The US has absolutely no preparation for this, economically speaking. This morning I plan to lead an initiative on working from home, and triaging who at work really needs to physically be there, and what equipment do we need to work from home.
5. This is anecdotal, but I saw video of those Japanese health inspectors going aboard the cruise ship to remove sick passengers. Those inspectors were dressed head-to-toe in hazmat suits and full face respirators, and were on the ship for a limited time only. Now I read that 4 of them (6?) have contracted the virus. (See #1)

[Uncle Ted]

Looks like this virus is breaking containment. Might be time to start taking it seriously here in the US. I still think there will be less deaths in the US from COVID-19 this year than the flu, but there will probably be some seriously costly measures to make it so.

I'm guessing this has a good chance of derailing the economy and causing a recession. We may already be past that point with things shut down in China. I do think this affects possible election outcomes as well.

Yep... containment is gone:

Coronavirus: More New Cases Are Now Reported Outside China Than Inside

"Yesterday, the number of new cases reported outside China exceeded the number of new cases in China for the first time," the head of the World Health Organization said Wednesday, giving an update on the deadly COVID-19 disease that's spread by a novel coronavirus.
[...]

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...na-than-inside

Does BYUTV still have that sacrament program that you can watch from home?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Yep... containment is gone:


https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...na-than-inside

Does BYUTV still have that sacrament program that you can watch from home?

That's one way to spin it. What this really means is that things seem to under control in China.

By contrast, only 10 new cases were reported in mainland China outside of the epicenter in Hubei province, the WHO says.

Either that, or the Chinese are lying again.

[Joe Public]

The Hong Kong missionaries have been removed from Hong Kong (at least the ones who aren't from there).

We just got one back from Hong Kong in our ward. His 14 days was up. On Tuesday he's headed off to Seattle to finish off his mission.

My wife this last Sunday: "We had two sister missionaries in Relief Society who were moved from Hong Kong."

Me: "You didn't sit by them, did you?"

[wuapinmon]

My students are down the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories about COVID-19. They are sharing this video all over social media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oLl...wp8LGEbycQ62eI

[Color Me Badd Fan]

My wife this last Sunday: "We had two sister missionaries in Relief Society who were moved from Hong Kong."

Me: "You didn't sit by them, did you?"

Every member a missionary. Every recently repatriated missionary a Gaetan Dugas.