2019-2020 BYU Cougars basketball

[CardiacCoug]

I may have spent the better part of an hour today reading Gonzaga message boards. They hate us so much. Very few (some, but not many) are able to discuss the game without blaming the loss on the refs.

They hate our fans so much, and most won’t admit it (some do) but they are jealous af about an arena that seats 18k+.

So many great posts, but this one got a legit LOL out of me:

Hilarious. There were some anti-Mormon “protestors” with signs educating people about the evil nature of Joseph Smith and the Book of Mormon outside the arena. Probably Timberzag’s friends.

So many good things about that post but the fact that it “almost feels evil” although Timberzag has never been to the Marriott Center is pretty interesting.

[myboynoah]

I may have spent the better part of an hour today reading Gonzaga message boards. They hate us so much. Very few (some, but not many) are able to discuss the game without blaming the loss on the refs.

They hate our fans so much, and most won’t admit it (some do) but they are jealous af about an arena that seats 18k+.

So many great posts, but this one got a legit LOL out of me:

I took the bait and googled a Gonzaga board. Page after page of complaining about the refs, sprinkled in with "hardeeharhars" over BYU fans booing calls against the Cougars. Boring.

As I recall, right out of the chute the game was stopped because Toolson was bleeding after getting clocked on his cheekbone. Was that a BYU hack gone astray? I ask because I don't remember the refs calling a foul over that contact.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I took the bait and googled a Gonzaga board. Page after page of complaining about the refs, sprinkled in with "hardeeharhars" over BYU fans booing calls against the Cougars. Boring.

As I recall, right out of the shoot the game was stopped because Toolson was bleeding after getting clocked on his cheekbone. Was that a BYU hack gone astray? I ask because I don't remember the refs calling a foul over that contact.

Sports boards are a magnet for idiots.

[myboynoah]

Sports boards are a magnet for idiots.

Word!

I'm so glad that hasn't happened here.

[myboynoah]

Remember when Yoeli committed to BYU? A good get for BYU, but I don't think we realized how big a get that was. I think I remember someone saying there were questions about his work ethic. Ha!!!!

Are Pope and Burgess behind our big men actually being a threat in the post? Yoeli is talented, so I see that. But Colby has been a revelation. The kid has the confidence to try and back anybody down. What a funky little pop shot, or whatever you call it. That is money! If true, then Chris, you are making 15 million Mormons very proud!

And MVP, well, gotta say that the dude is an MVP. Hope to see him back soon.

This has been a really cool team that has actually gotten better as the season progressed, and fought through injuries and other adversities. Please, please, please, no surprise unmarried pregnancies out there! Please!

I still haven't fully forgiven that uofutah loss. Makes me sick to think about.

I'm really liking Pope. I had a guy I knew in Tokyo whose son played at Wake when Pope was an assistant coach. When Pope moved to BYU he went on and on about how lucky we were to have him. He said the Wake players loved Pope. There is no reason he can't build something very nice at BYU. Holmoe, show him the money!!!!

[myboynoah]

Sports boards are a magnet for idiots.

And often they manage to find their way to twitter.

Embedded Tweet

[Lost Student]

Please, please, please, no surprise unmarried pregnancies out there! Please!

I still haven't fully forgiven that uofutah loss. Makes me sick to think about.

I've finally found it in myself to forgive them for that. It helps that Utah is a toilet-tier team this year, as they have been every year and will be forever. I like what coach K is doing on the hill!

Holmoe, show him the money!!!!

[Pelado]

BYU's road and neutral game winning percentages are pretty similar to most of the teams rated above them in NET (excluding the top 5). One of the reasons why BYU has more losses than the other teams ranked around them is that they've played more games away from home than any other team in the NET top 45 (if my quick perusal is correct). Have to go all the way down to #60, Yale to find a team that's played more road and neutral games (17) than BYU (15).

[Donuthole]

Bracketology has BYU slotted as a 6 seed playing Wichita St. in St. Louis. That would be an unfortunate draw for the Cougs. I know nothing about the Shockers this year, but they are a program with a lot of NCAA experience and a dedicated fanbase in the midwest.

[smokymountainrain]

Same. I heaped on a lot of criticism his frosh and soph years. I thought he was a total disappointment based on his high school career. He turned the corner last year, and this year he's been phenomenal. If they make a tourney run, all will be forgiven, and he'll go down as one of the BYU all-timers.

that sophomore year as well as expectations coming out of HS have caused Haws to be underrated almost his entire career. I may have been guilty as well during his freshman season, but looking back, it's one of, if not the best frosh seasons ever for a byu point guard. if guys like you and me took him to task, he didn't deserve it.

then he had the down sophomore season, but his junior year was about as good as it gets in BYU history for a PG and he's followed that up with a very nice senior year.

All told, he's a lock for top 5 pg in byu history, if not top 3 - at least since i've been a fan going back to the early 80s.

[wapiti]

Net Rating 14
Pomeroy 16
AP Poll 17
Bracket Matrix consensus of projections updated on 2/24: 7 seed

The numbers say we should be a 4-5 seed. No idea why the consensus is 6-7. Especially when you consider much of our resume was built without Childs.

[imanihonjin]

Net Rating 14
Pomeroy 16
AP Poll 17
Bracket Matrix consensus of projections updated on 2/24: 7 seed

The numbers say we should be a 4-5 seed. No idea why the consensus is 6-7. Especially when you consider much of our resume was built without Childs.

This is because we get screwed as a result of our no Sunday play policy.

[BlueK]

Net Rating 14
Pomeroy 16
AP Poll 17
Bracket Matrix consensus of projections updated on 2/24: 7 seed

The numbers say we should be a 4-5 seed. No idea why the consensus is 6-7. Especially when you consider much of our resume was built without Childs.

Unfortunately those aren't the numbers the committee uses for seeding purposes. They don't use the human polls at all, and it isn't included on the sheet they have on each team. They can look at the NET, kenpom, BPI, and Sagarin. I think there may be a couple of others I don't remember the names of. BYU is ranked similarly on all of those right now. They also look at overall and non-conference SOS (determined by the NET), and record away from home (both true road games and neutral court). They can also take injuries into account and which games were missed by a key player. However, what seems to carry the most weight is a team's records vs. Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4. That's where you're seeing BYU coming in a little lower than their rankings on the computers. Other teams ranked close to them have better numbers there.

For example, BYU is #14 on the NET and their records against the 4 quadrants are:
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0

West Virginia is #15 and here are their numbers vs. the quadrants:
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 1-0

#16 Texas Tech:
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 8-0

#17 Seton Hall:
Q1: 10-5
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 5-0

#18 Colorado:
Q1: 6-3
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0

#19 Ohio State
Q1: 5-8
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0

#20 Oregon:
Q1: 7-5
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 4-0

Here is how these teams are projected based on the bracket matrix composite of +-100 brackets that are out there right now. The caveat with the matrix is that some of the brackets have not been updated yet since the BYU/Gonzaga game. So BYU and Ohio State are currently right next to each other, with BYU probably about to pass them.

Seton Hall: 3
Oregon: 4
W. Virginia: 4
Colorado: 5
Ohio State: 6 (the lowest 6 seed)
BYU: 7 (the best 7 seed)
Texas Tech: 8

Seton Hall has the best projected seeding among these, but as you can see, they also have 10 quad 1 wins, with a 15-7 record against Q1 and Q2 combined. That's pretty impressive. One pattern that seems to appear here is that these seeds seem to reflect combined q1 and q2 records. On the surface, all these teams except for Texas Tech have better records than BYU against the quadrants, and the bracketologists are seeding them accordingly.

If you follow the link below and compare BYU's records vs. the quadrants with those of teams ranked further down, they actually look similar to teams currently projected for seeds 9-11. But they are currently projected around 6/7. That's because BYU does have some things going for them besides their NET. Their non-conference SOS is #9, and this is something the committee always talks about and historically has rewarded teams for. Also, in their record vs. Q1, 3 of the 4 losses came against teams in the top 5. Also, because of the Gonzaga win, BYU is one of only 7 teams in the country that has a win against a top 3 ranked team in the NET. Also, like I said, not all the brackets are settled following last weekend, and I think BYU keeps moving up the ladder as long as they don't lose to Pepperdine.

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[BlueK]

This is because we get screwed as a result of our no Sunday play policy.

The committee doesn't seed based on the rankings. They do look at them, but mostly only to classify teams into the quadrants and to determine which teams are going to be considered. It's record vs. the quadrants that carries the biggest weight.

[wapiti]

Unfortunately those aren't the numbers the committee uses for seeding purposes. They don't use the human polls at all, and it isn't included on the sheet they have on each team. They can look at the NET, kenpom, BPI, and Sagarin. I think there may be a couple of others I don't remember the names of. BYU is ranked similarly on all of those right now. They also look at overall and non-conference SOS (determined by the NET), and record away from home (both true road games and neutral court). They can also take injuries into account and which games were missed by a key player. However, what seems to carry the most weight is a team's records vs. Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4. That's where you're seeing BYU coming in a little lower than their rankings on the computers. Other teams ranked close to them have better numbers there.

For example, BYU is #14 on the NET and their records against the 4 quadrants are:
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0

West Virginia is #15 and here are their numbers vs. the quadrants:
Q1: 5-6
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 1-0

#16 Texas Tech:
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 4-1
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 8-0

#17 Seton Hall:
Q1: 10-5
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 0-0
Q4: 5-0

#18 Colorado:
Q1: 6-3
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 4-1
Q4: 6-0

#19 Ohio State
Q1: 5-8
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 6-0

#20 Oregon:
Q1: 7-5
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 6-0
Q4: 4-0

Here is how these teams are projected based on the bracket matrix composite of +-100 brackets that are out there right now. The caveat with the matrix is that some of the brackets have not been updated yet since the BYU/Gonzaga game. So BYU and Ohio State are currently right next to each other, with BYU probably about to pass them.

Seton Hall: 3
Oregon: 4
W. Virginia: 4
Colorado: 5
Ohio State: 6 (the lowest 6 seed)
BYU: 7 (the best 7 seed)
Texas Tech: 8

Seton Hall has the best projected seeding among these, but as you can see, they also have 10 quad 1 wins, with a 15-7 record against Q1 and Q2 combined. That's pretty impressive. One pattern that seems to appear here is that these seeds seem to reflect combined q1 and q2 records. On the surface, all these teams except for Texas Tech have better records than BYU against the quadrants, and the bracketologists are seeding them accordingly.

If you follow the link below and compare BYU's records vs. the quadrants with those of teams ranked further down, they actually look similar to teams currently projected for seeds 9-11. But they are currently projected around 6/7. That's because BYU does have some things going for them besides their NET. Their non-conference SOS is #9, and this is something the committee always talks about and historically has rewarded teams for. Also, in their record vs. Q1, 3 of the 4 losses came against teams in the top 5. Also, because of the Gonzaga win, BYU is one of only 7 teams in the country that has a win against a top 3 ranked team in the NET. Also, like I said, not all the brackets are settled following last weekend, and I think BYU keeps moving up the ladder as long as they don't lose to Pepperdine.

http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Good analysis. I wonder if there are a couple of things the committee with account for in our record better than the bracketologists do. 1) As noted, our quad 1 losses are really high level losses. 2) All of the losses but Gonzaga and Kansas were extremely close. 3) The record with Yoeli playing is 15-1, losses to Utah and Boise simply don't happen with Yoeli which would flip the Quad 2 record from 4-3 to 6-1. (I realize Yoeli played part of the Utah game.)

If the committee gets down to the minute details, I think BYU will get the benefit of the doubt. Of course, the best way to get a better seed is to win the WCC tournament. Neutral wins over SMC and Gonzaga would bring us up a line or two.