Womens’ Volleyball 2018

[pelagius]

I'm sure most of these responses are motivated be a need to make Topper feel loved (which is aa good idea), but I do think BYU has exceeded expectations given the Miller injury. Furthermore, being seeded 4th overall doesn't mean you should expect that team make the final 4. I think in the majority of cases the cumulative probability of losing in the 64/32/16/8 rounds are higher than 50% even for a team that was appropriately seeded and playing at home (home court advantage isn't that big). We would expect the 4th seed to make it more often than the 5th seed and the 13th, and the 29th and the 61st individually but not necessarily collectively.

Here is the string of odds I had for the matches (I think I posted most of these):

0.99*0.8*.75*.70 = 0.42

Of course, these may be wrong. But my expectation was that BYU wouldn't make the final 4. They had a good chance, but a better chance of dropping a match before they got there.

**Note, I am playing fast and loose with the joint probability. I only showed the path that happened. Not full possible paths: e.g., Denver beats Utah, etc. When I did that before the the tournament started I think I had like 0.48.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm sure most of these responses are motivated be a need to make Topper feel loved (which is aa good idea), but I do think BYU has exceeded expectations given the Miller injury. Furthermore, being seeded 4th overall doesn't mean you should expect that team make the final 4. I think in the majority of cases the cumulative probability of losing in the 64/32/16/8 rounds are higher than 50% even for a team that was appropriately seeded and playing at home (home court advantage isn't that big). We would expect the 4th seed to make it more often than the 5th seed and the 13th, and the 29th and the 61st individually but not necessarily collectively.

Here is the string of odds I had for the matches (I think I posted most of these):

0.99*0.8*.75*.70 = 0.42

Of course, these may be wrong. But my expectation was that BYU wouldn't make the final 4. They had a good chance, but a better chance of dropping a match before they got there.

What are your odds for tonight? I am thinking 30-40%

[Green Monstah]

What are your odds for tonight? I am thinking 30-40%

47%

[pelagius]

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[Green Monstah]

First brother-sister duo to win NCOY awards, I bet!

[myboynoah]

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cool!

[myboynoah]

I'm sure most of these responses are motivated be a need to make Topper feel loved (which is aa good idea), but I do think BYU has exceeded expectations given the Miller injury. Furthermore, being seeded 4th overall doesn't mean you should expect that team make the final 4. I think in the majority of cases the cumulative probability of losing in the 64/32/16/8 rounds are higher than 50% even for a team that was appropriately seeded and playing at home (home court advantage isn't that big). We would expect the 4th seed to make it more often than the 5th seed and the 13th, and the 29th and the 61st individually but not necessarily collectively.

Here is the string of odds I had for the matches (I think I posted most of these):

0.99*0.8*.75*.70 = 0.42

Of course, these may be wrong. But my expectation was that BYU wouldn't make the final 4. They had a good chance, but a better chance of dropping a match before they got there.

**Note, I am playing fast and loose with the joint probability. I only showed the path that happened. Not full possible paths: e.g., Denver beats Utah, etc. When I did that before the the tournament started I think I had like 0.48.

smr, LC, falafel, Dh, GM pelagius

[Green Monstah]

smr, LC, falafel, Dh, GM pelagius

Not really.

The Topper's pessimism has reached unforeseen levels with this year's women's volleyball team. If P-lag had them at 42% chance of reaching the FF (which is honestly, quite high...my guess is that few were higher), that's likely 10x of Topper's pre-tourney expectations.

[Surfah]

That's what happens when you can't pass.

[Surfah]

Lousy game for RJP to play so poorly.

[Donuthole]

Shyte passing isn't helping. It's never over until it's over in volleyball, but this thing is pretty much over. The team looks completely discombobulated.

[pelagius]

Wow pretty awful ... fun season though.

[pelagius]

That's what happens when you can't pass.

Yep, you've always been able to expose RJP on the serve receive, but Stanford was able to get both Stetler and Martingdale too.

Lousy game for RJP to play so poorly.

Yep, that was odd. So much swinging low into the block even when in system. Not sure what to make of it. On the other hand, everybody has bad matches and she delivered so many great moments. The whole team did. Next year should be fun. I'm hopeful that Kate Grimmer will finally give BYU a reliable opposite and Miller can come back to give BYU a first rate OH1. I also liked that Madi Robinson kept swinging hard.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Boo.

Still a great year. Proud of the team.

[Paperback Writer]

Was hoping for a BYU-Nebraska final. Nebraska came back against Illinois after losing first two sets.