President Trump: Making America Great Again...

[wuapinmon]

quarantine the oldies, the fatties,

You wanted to say fatties, so you forced the assonance with oldies. If you were half as clever as your preening ass thinks you are, you would've worked in pathologies closer to the the first two -ies you let fly, and thrown in a parachesis with diabetes too.

[originalsocal]

Agree, we know this strain of flu is deadly to the elderly by orders of magnitude, which is quite unlike the Spanish Flu. In Italy, the mean age of the deceased for COVID-19 positive patients is 78 years. Only 100 (as of 3/30) of the 10,000+ deaths in Italy were under the age of 50. This thing doesn't kill young people. Like SU has said, quarantine the oldies, the fatties, and those with pre-existing complicating pathologies and let the rest of us go about our normal lives. This "everyone just stay home" is unsustainable, and like you say, just not smart.

(Source: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav..._marzo_eng.pdf)

Bullshit to this.

There are indeed measured ways of dealing with this crisis that could have put people back to work sooner. Stay at home is where we are because of the asshat in the White House. We currently don't have the tools to take the measured steps, namely testing right now....LOTS more testing. But the asshats that currently run our country fell down, hard. They failed to secure the large amounts of tests that would be needed to stem the time and were not very transparent about it to boot. When the truth finally came out about our need for testing we were already screwed. IF we had more testing then you could cohort groups of people and get them back to work. But without adequate testing, we are stuck in the slow motion car crash. Another key data point that came out on Tuesday is that 25% of all cases--25%--are asymptomatic. This underscores my previous point, but also highlights just how insidious this virus is.

Let me ask you this. Given the high percentage of asymptomatic cases and that there is a huge lack of testing...what are your recommendations genius?

[myboynoah]

Bullshit to this.

There are indeed measured ways of dealing with this crisis that could have put people back to work sooner. Stay at home is where we are because of the asshat in the White House. We currently don't have the tools to take the measured steps, namely testing right now....LOTS more testing. But the asshats that currently run our country fell down, hard. They failed to secure the large amounts of tests that would be needed to stem the time and were not very transparent about it to boot. When the truth finally came out about our need for testing we were already screwed. IF we had more testing then you could cohort groups of people and get them back to work. But without adequate testing, we are stuck in the slow motion car crash. Another key data point that came out on Tuesday is that 25% of all cases--25%--are asymptomatic. This underscores my previous point, but also highlights just how insidious this virus is.

This.

Korea is where it is today because it tested and contact traced and tested again the hell out of this thing at its inception. They acted, we're reacting and have limited options other than fighting the thing at our doorstep. WE ARE STILL RATIONING TEST KITS AND ARE SHORT ON PPE FOR OUR HEALTHCARE WORKERS! Think about that.

We lost the Korea model two months ago.

[wapiti]

This.

Korea is where it is today because it tested and contact traced and tested again the hell out of this thing at its inception. They acted, we're reacting and have limited options other than fighting the thing at our doorstep. WE ARE STILL RATIONING TEST KITS AND ARE SHORT ON PPE FOR OUR HEALTHCARE WORKERS! Think about that.

We lost the Korea model two months ago.

Certain regions have lost the Korea model. I think other regions could get to a place where the Korea model will work. Only 61 new cases in Utah today. San Francisco seems to be several days past peak. It's time for these regions to create a model for opening business back up in a measured way. We should learn from South Korea and China on how to do that.

[wuapinmon]

We should learn from South Korea and China on how to do that.

I'm having a lot of trouble believing the numbers out of China. I just distrust them so much that I can't believe that the numbers stopped on a dime the way they did.

[myboynoah]

Certain regions have lost the Korea model. I think other regions could get to a place where the Korea model will work. Only 61 new cases in Utah today. San Francisco seems to be several days past peak. It's time for these regions to create a model for opening business back up in a measured way. We should learn from South Korea and China on how to do that.

Agreed, that could be the case. But the testing is still behind, even in those regions. We need data in order to make informed decisions. We don't have that yet.

Please be aware that Korea is not even close to being fully back to normal. Schools are still closed and will open with online learning and possibly move to in-class learning as the year progresses. Most businesses are still on telework. Restaurants and shops may be open, but foot traffic is way down. Yes, something is better than nothing, but it is still a long, cautious slog. But at least the government notifies everyone immediately when a new case is found, pinpointing the neighborhood and where the infected person had been the previous 48 hrs (?). Korea will also put an app on your phone if you are in quaratine so that it will know if you have left your house, and require you to report your temperature and other symptons twice a day. Penalties for breaking quaratine can be a $10,000 fine and a year in prison.

[myboynoah]

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[YOhio]

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[old_gregg]

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unlike montana, wyoming, idaho, nevada, and the rural pnw? doubt!

[old_gregg]

also, dumb map to begin with. travel >2.1 miles in one's own car (which is probably what's happening given the lack of public transit options in the map hot spots) to a grocery store is no worse than driving .5 miles.

[Walter Sobchak]

Those people who are taking care of them are benefitting from a general shelter in place edict. The more people who shelter in place, the less opportunity the virus has to infect those caregivers. You let everyone go on as before, right in the middle of a huge viral prevalence, the caregivers will also get infected. Before they have symptoms they will be infecting all those quarantined people.

This isn't theorizing or just our best guess. This has happened in multiple care centers all over the world. The virus finds a way to get into those populations you want to quarantine. And it wrecks havoc. The only and best option we have right now is to play the numbers game. The less people who get infected, the less infirm get it in the end.

It may be the "best" option if you want to continue to minimize lives lost and maximize economic devastation, but that certainly isn't the only option. There is a better, smarter approach but it does involve some trade-offs. Those trade-offs can be minimized, if not altogether mitigated. The same steps that are in place now at care centers can continue or perhaps further be heightened. For example, care givers in care centers could use the same precautions as if they worked in a hospital ICU.

This isn't rocket science. We can identify the populations, concentrate our efforts (and our funding) to take the appropriate and necessary precautions. Meanwhile, schools start back up again. Businesses re-open and the unemployment rolls don't further explode.

I think other regions could get to a place where the Korea model will work. Only 61 new cases in Utah today. San Francisco seems to be several days past peak. It's time for these regions to create a model for opening business back up in a measured way.

Amen to this.

[wapiti]

I'm having a lot of trouble believing the numbers out of China. I just distrust them so much that I can't believe that the numbers stopped on a dime the way they did.

I don't believe China's numbers either. But I do believe that they are fairly operational now. Offices and factories are open. Schools and sporting events are not. Our office in China was delayed opening after CNY due to the outbreak. In order to open they had to be inspected by a government health inspector. The inspector was satisfied that the office didn't present a threat to passing the virus among employees. The building also has someone taking the temperature of every worker as they arrive each day. Every factory we use went through a similar process in order to reopen. Some took longer than others. When they finally did open, most had trouble finding workers. But now, 45 days later, the factories are running close to normal and the supply chain coming out of China is functional.

We could do something similar but less autocratic. Every business should be inspected for basic social distancing practices. They should be required to clean and disinfect regularly and keep those logged. They should clean door handles frequently or simply prop doors open where practical. Rate the building for a maximum number of occupants and don't allow more than that at a given time. If a business isn't following the guidelines, shut it down.

Schools and churches should stay closed. Sporting events cancelled. Restaurant seating disallowed. We won't be anything close to normal. But we can do a lot better than full lock down.

[Northwestcoug]

It may be the "best" option if you want to continue to minimize lives lost and maximize economic devastation, but that certainly isn't the only option. There is a better, smarter approach but it does involve some trade-offs. Those trade-offs can be minimized, if not altogether mitigated. The same steps that are in place now at care centers can continue or perhaps further be heightened. For example, care givers in care centers could use the same precautions as if they worked in a hospital ICU.

This isn't rocket science. We can identify the populations, concentrate our efforts (and our funding) to take the appropriate and necessary precautions. Meanwhile, schools start back up again. Businesses re-open and the unemployment rolls don't further explode.




Amen to this.

When a sizeable proportion of the working adult population is at increased risk for significant morbidity (see my previous post!), your quarantine on steroids option is not tenable.

Decrease the first wave of the virus, manage the fallout, and prepare for a second wave before a vaccine is ready. The fallout and second wave can be minimized by how well we do right now. And, by extension, the recession.

[Omaha 680]

also, dumb map to begin with. travel >2.1 miles in one's own car (which is probably what's happening given the lack of public transit options in the map hot spots) to a grocery store is no worse than driving .5 miles.

No, you see in NYC they stopped traveling more than 2 miles before everyone and now things are great there.

[myboynoah]

I don't believe China's numbers either. But I do believe that they are fairly operational now. Offices and factories are open. Schools and sporting events are not. Our office in China was delayed opening after CNY due to the outbreak. In order to open they had to be inspected by a government health inspector. The inspector was satisfied that the office didn't present a threat to passing the virus among employees. The building also has someone taking the temperature of every worker as they arrive each day. Every factory we use went through a similar process in order to reopen. Some took longer than others. When they finally did open, most had trouble finding workers. But now, 45 days later, the factories are running close to normal and the supply chain coming out of China is functional.

We could do something similar but less autocratic. Every business should be inspected for basic social distancing practices. They should be required to clean and disinfect regularly and keep those logged. They should clean door handles frequently or simply prop doors open where practical. Rate the building for a maximum number of occupants and don't allow more than that at a given time. If a business isn't following the guidelines, shut it down.

Schools and churches should stay closed. Sporting events cancelled. Restaurant seating disallowed. We won't be anything close to normal. But we can do a lot better than full lock down.

Then are we just talking about bringing factories back on line? Aren't many factories still operating? I thought people were most upset about restaurants, hospitality, workout places, and the foot traffic economy.

I don't thing we are in a position to legislate and implement a whole new set of draconian regulations to make sure people are sanitizing work spaces. We have the internet. Office people can telework.

In general I am not in favor of lockdowns. But these are crazy times and those jurisdictions that acted early on forcing social distancing are starting to see results. Those that didn't are suffering. I wish we could be proactive, but we are still forced to be in reactive mode.

This all needs to be data driven. Get the data so we can make informed decisions. Otherwise we are just guessing.