The 2020 Presidential Election Primary Thread

[SeattleUte]

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This is an almost perfect analogy.

Christianity does seem to be in our cultural DNA. Harari well describes the debt that liberal humanism owes to the Christian belief in the human soul.

But this new version of it seems to be mostly a white person's creed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/24/o...andidates.html

[Pelado]

He likes power way too much. He’s too egotistical to conceive that losing would be a possibility.

I agree with frank.

[wapiti]

I agree with frank.

I think the numbers would have to be much more bleak than they are today for him to think he can't win.

[BlueK]

In The Atlantic yesterday: some interesting analysis of polling results around Americans' attitudes toward some of Trump's most important issues like immigration. Basically, public opinion around many of these topics is actually trending in the opposite direction Trump is arguing for. A few excerpts below.

"Recent polling shows that Donald Trump has managed to reshape American attitudes to a remarkable extent on a trio of his key issues—race, immigration, and trade.

There’s just one catch: The public is turning against Trump’s views.

Reuters found that white Americans are 19 percent more supportive of a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants than they were four years ago, and slightly less supportive of increased deportations. Other polls find related results. A record-high number of Americans—75 percent—said in 2018 that immigration is good for the United States. Although the Trump administration took steps last week to limit even legal immigration, the Trump presidency has seen an increase in the number of Americans who support more legal immigration—not just among Democrats, but even slightly among Republicans...


One big problem for Trump is that voters have now gotten a chance to see him implement ideas that seemed novel or at least worth a shot during the campaign, and they don’t like what they’re seeing in practice. A trade war with China might have seemed worthwhile in summer 2016, but now that there’s actually one being fought, the public is having second thoughts, and fears of a recession are growing. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday found that 64 percent of Americans think free trade is good, up from 57 in 2017, 55 in 2016, and 51 in 2015. Meanwhile, the percentage who say free trade is bad has dropped 10 points since 2017."

The article also presents findings about attitudes around race.

I would also add that going along with this theme, in the 2018 House races the Republicans got beat in virtually every swing district after Trump for months talked of little other than his hardline immigration views at his rallies. That message just didn't sell to independents, moderates, college educated, or people in the suburbs. I don't think doubling down on the same strategy is going to win in 2020, but we'll see. I am also skeptical that he would suddenly pull an LBJ and drop his reelection bid, but I did see that the guy who floated that idea out there last week was his former adviser Anthony Scaramucci. Maybe it has some merit coming from someone who knows him, but who knows.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...pinion/596335/

[Eddie]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/stat...93524913430528

Oh Beto - seriously?

I think you can by knife for $5-10 a lot of places. You can kill people for a lot less than $395.

Time for a new comparison, buddy. This one isn't going to work out too well for you.

[SeattleUte]

In The Atlantic yesterday: some interesting analysis of polling results around Americans' attitudes toward some of Trump's most important issues like immigration. Basically, public opinion around many of these topics is actually trending in the opposite direction Trump is arguing for. A few excerpts below.

"Recent polling shows that Donald Trump has managed to reshape American attitudes to a remarkable extent on a trio of his key issues—race, immigration, and trade.

There’s just one catch: The public is turning against Trump’s views.

Reuters found that white Americans are 19 percent more supportive of a path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants than they were four years ago, and slightly less supportive of increased deportations. Other polls find related results. A record-high number of Americans—75 percent—said in 2018 that immigration is good for the United States. Although the Trump administration took steps last week to limit even legal immigration, the Trump presidency has seen an increase in the number of Americans who support more legal immigration—not just among Democrats, but even slightly among Republicans...


One big problem for Trump is that voters have now gotten a chance to see him implement ideas that seemed novel or at least worth a shot during the campaign, and they don’t like what they’re seeing in practice. A trade war with China might have seemed worthwhile in summer 2016, but now that there’s actually one being fought, the public is having second thoughts, and fears of a recession are growing. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday found that 64 percent of Americans think free trade is good, up from 57 in 2017, 55 in 2016, and 51 in 2015. Meanwhile, the percentage who say free trade is bad has dropped 10 points since 2017."

The article also presents findings about attitudes around race.

I would also add that going along with this theme, in the 2018 House races the Republicans got beat in virtually every swing district after Trump for months talked of little other than his hardline immigration views at his rallies. That message just didn't sell to independents, moderates, college educated, or people in the suburbs. I don't think doubling down on the same strategy is going to win in 2020, but we'll see. I am also skeptical that he would suddenly pull an LBJ and drop his reelection bid, but I did see that the guy who floated that idea out there last week was his former adviser Anthony Scaramucci. Maybe it has some merit coming from someone who knows him, but who knows.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...pinion/596335/

I have a prediction. This immigration problem will be like Guantanamo. After the democrats, probably Warren, are in the Whitehouse in 2020, the problem what they condemned will continue unresolved, including the humanitarian crisis. Nothing will change for years. I blame both parties pretty much equally for this mess. They both suck in this respect as well as many others. Trump has made himself a huge target and scapegoat, however.

[falafel]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/stat...93524913430528

Oh Beto - seriously?

I think you can by knife for $5-10 a lot of places. You can kill people for a lot less than $395.

Time for a new comparison, buddy. This one isn't going to work out too well for you.

Plus, I mean, he hasn't included the cost of a lifetime supply of ammunition.

[BlueK]

I have a prediction. This immigration problem will be like Guantanamo. After the democrats, probably Warren, are in the Whitehouse in 2020, the problem what they condemned will continue unresolved, including the humanitarian crisis. Nothing will change for years. I blame both parties pretty much equally for this mess. They both suck in this respect as well as many others. Trump has made himself a huge target and scapegoat, however.

I think there is much less sympathy in the country for what happens to people accused of actual terrorism vs. the "terrorism" (at least the way the Trump/Stephen Miller/Ann Coulter crowd talk about it) of entering the US without the proper paperwork. I'd be surprised if they did nothing because I think the political risks of that are greater right now. Winning the election and then ignoring a key consituency of Latino voters would be pretty dumb, especially because after the second defeat in a row I don't think many circles within the GOP eager to win back the middle would put up too much of a fight over closing those camps on the border. With Guantanamo it wasn't unpopular at the time to keep the status quo.

[SeattleUte]

I think there is much less sympathy in the country for what happens to people accused of actual terrorism vs. the "terrorism" (at least the way the Trump/Stephen Miller/Ann Coulter crowd talk about it) of entering the US without the proper paperwork. I'd be surprised if they did nothing because I think the political risks of that are greater right now. Winning the election and then ignoring a key consituency of Latino voters would be pretty dumb, especially because after the second defeat in a row I don't think many circles within the GOP eager to win back the middle would put up too much of a fight over closing those camps on the border. With Guantanamo it wasn't unpopular at the time to keep the status quo.

Both parties have ignored this problem and refused to work together to solve it for decades. From what I can tell, the democrats' solution is completely open borders and give everyone citizenship. That can't be what they really want, but it's all I can see from their rhetoric. As usual, it's all abstraction and aspiration. Like health care. It seems that any more the only Americans that solve any problem is the private sector.

Up here in Seattle in my crystal tower, I am very dovish about immigration. I agree with AOC minus the absurd comparisons to Nazi concentration camps. But I wonder if a majority Americans support that. I doubt it. So I really am skeptical that the democrats could possibly solve this problem. I think they're incapable of it. Immigration, of course, is way harder to tackle and solve in a responsible way than Guantanamo, which the democrats were not up to solving after all the pious virtue signaling and condemnation.

[BlueK]

Both parties have ignored this problem and refused to work together to solve it for decades. From what I can tell, the democrats' solution is completely open borders and give everyone citizenship. That can't be what they really want, but it's all I can see from their rhetoric. As usual, it's all abstraction and aspiration. Like health care. It seems that any more the only Americans that solve any problem is the private sector.

Up here in Seattle in my crystal tower, I am very dovish about immigration. I agree with AOC minus the absurd comparisons to Nazi concentration camps. But I wonder if a majority Americans support that. I doubt it. So I really am skeptical that the democrats could possibly solve this problem. I think they're incapable of it. Immigration, of course, is way harder to tackle and solve in a responsible way than Guantanamo, which the democrats were not up to solving after all the pious virtue signaling and condemnation.

The link to the market research I just posted indicates that right now at least the majority of Americans does support it. It's just hard to hear that voice when Trump and his crowd are screaming so loudly. But like this research shows, it's that very screaming that is pushing the rest of the country in the other direction. Sentiment among the majority is different than it was in 2008 or even 2016. The GOP got clobbered in the last election because Trump's take on immigrants was rejected in the districts that aren't gerrymandered to be deep red.

Completely solving the problem is probably too high of an expectation, depending on how you want to define that. But they can at least do a few things without that much trouble, like relief for the dreamers. Also, rescinding Trump's unilateral executive actions that established this no tolerance policy and created the camps wouldn't even require Congress. The new president could just wipe that out by him or herself since it is all based just on Trump's executive actions.

[UVACoug]

I have a prediction. This immigration problem will be like Guantanamo. After the democrats, probably Warren, are in the Whitehouse in 2020, the problem what they condemned will continue unresolved, including the humanitarian crisis. Nothing will change for years. I blame both parties pretty much equally for this mess. They both suck in this respect as well as many others. Trump has made himself a huge target and scapegoat, however.

That's what happened during the Obama years, right? All his promises of comprehensive immigration reform during the campaigns and he didn't make any real effort at all.

[SeattleUte]

That's what happened during the Obama years, right? All his promises of comprehensive immigration reform during the campaigns and he didn't make any real effort at all.

True.

I used Guantanamo as my analogy because there the democrats were likewise moralizing and wearing their virtue on their sleeve. Both parties have been on all sides of immigration. You may recall that Bernie Sanders was an immigration hawk for many years, and this came out to some extent in 2016. No more, but only on the surface. Democrats don't want open borders any more than Republicans. The fact is that there are maybe stronger motivations for democrats to oppose immigration that republicans. Unions have opposed it and the narrative that immigrants take jobs from US labor unwilling to work for such low compensation is actually a democratic narrative. Republicans like to hire immigrants.

[YOhio]

Whoa whoa whoa. You're telling me that immigration will continue to be a hot button issue regardless of the party in charge? In the United States of America? I don't know. Seems like a stretch.

[SeattleUte]

The link to the market research I just posted indicates that right now at least the majority of Americans does support it. It's just hard to hear that voice when Trump and his crowd are screaming so loudly. But like this research shows, it's that very screaming that is pushing the rest of the country in the other direction. Sentiment among the majority is different than it was in 2008 or even 2016. The GOP got clobbered in the last election because Trump's take on immigrants was rejected in the districts that aren't gerrymandered to be deep red.

Completely solving the problem is probably too high of an expectation, depending on how you want to define that. But they can at least do a few things without that much trouble, like relief for the dreamers. Also, rescinding Trump's unilateral executive actions that established this no tolerance policy and created the camps wouldn't even require Congress. The new president could just wipe that out by him or herself since it is all based just on Trump's executive actions.

Look, like the Chinese have outflanked Trump on trade, the Democrats are winning the political battle here. Their response to the crisis is to call Trump a racist and do nothing. That has served them well in the short term. Nobody wants to be a bad person, everyone is virtue signaling--even to the pollsters. You can hardly address this issue without issuing a statement that you don't support Trump. Whatever the polls are responding to is not reality. The democrats have created a narrative that suits them for winning the presidential election, or so they hope. And that narrative is comparing Trump to Hitler. That's not going to solve the problem and it won't last. We'll see what how the public reacts if they have to address real solutions.

[BlueK]

That's what happened during the Obama years, right? All his promises of comprehensive immigration reform during the campaigns and he didn't make any real effort at all.

that is true. he threw everything behind passing Obamacare instead.