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Thread: Self-Driving Cars

  1. #121
    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Donuthole View Post
    Yep. An attentive human probably wouldn't have avoided her, but an attentive human would have made an attempt to brake or swerve, even if it was too late. The fact that, even after she emerged from the shadows, the radar didn't pick her up is the truly disturbing part. Clearly she had no business walking across that street at that location without looking, but this doesn't seem like a complex situation that fooled the computer's algorithm. Pretty ironic set of facts for the first publicized self-driving related death, considering all the "who should the self-driving car kill" dilemmas we've seen over the last few years.
    I wonder if the pedestrian had headphones on. I see that all the time and it drives me crazy. People with headphones walk out into traffic without looking either way.
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  2. #122

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    I wonder if the pedestrian had headphones on. I see that all the time and it drives me crazy. People with headphones walk out into traffic without looking either way.
    In NYC they also like to be staring at their phones.

  3. #123
    вот так штука CardiacCoug's Avatar
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    The psychology of fatal accidents with self-driving cars is pretty interesting.

    If car accident fatalities could drop 50% tomorrow by switching completely to self-driving cars the math says we should take that immediately — would save thousands of lives.

    However since car accidents are caused by substances, distractions, and stupidity we would never accept self-driving cars that were anywhere near half as bad as humans. It won’t happen until self-driving cars avoid 99%+ of accidents.

    I know there are skeptics here but I think self-driving cars will happen in our lifetimes and it will be awesome. The cars will be really nervous and tentative but we will love it and think about how lame it was when you couldn’t answer emails or watch Netflix during your drive to work.

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    The psychology of fatal accidents with self-driving cars is pretty interesting.

    If car accident fatalities could drop 50% tomorrow by switching completely to self-driving cars the math says we should take that immediately — would save thousands of lives.

    However since car accidents are caused by substances, distractions, and stupidity we would never accept self-driving cars that were anywhere near half as bad as humans. It won’t happen until self-driving cars avoid 99%+ of accidents.

    I know there are skeptics here but I think self-driving cars will happen in our lifetimes and it will be awesome. The cars will be really nervous and tentative but we will love it and think about how lame it was when you couldn’t answer emails or watch Netflix during your drive to work.
    I'm holding out for self-flying cars.
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  5. #125
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    The psychology of fatal accidents with self-driving cars is pretty interesting.

    If car accident fatalities could drop 50% tomorrow by switching completely to self-driving cars the math says we should take that immediately — would save thousands of lives.

    However since car accidents are caused by substances, distractions, and stupidity we would never accept self-driving cars that were anywhere near half as bad as humans. It won’t happen until self-driving cars avoid 99%+ of accidents.

    I know there are skeptics here but I think self-driving cars will happen in our lifetimes and it will be awesome. The cars will be really nervous and tentative but we will love it and think about how lame it was when you couldn’t answer emails or watch Netflix during your drive to work.
    Yeah, and if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump its ass a-hoppin'.

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  6. #126
    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-au...on-ntsb-crash/

    Tesla claims you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident if you've got Autopilot (which it sells as a $5,000 option). “It unequivocally makes the world safer for the vehicle occupants, pedestrians and cyclists,” the company said in a recent blog post. “The consequences of the public not using Autopilot, because of an inaccurate belief that it is less safe, would be extremely severe.”

  7. #127
    Senior Member Eddie's Avatar
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    When that pedestrian was hit by the self driving car a while back, I took a peek at the comments section for the article on KSL - just for entertainment value.

    There was one guy who insisted that a computer would NEVER be as safe as a person, because people can look back and forth between mirrors and also check their blind spots.

    I'm thinking "WHAT?!? A computer can be looking 360 degrees simultaneously. It can have eyes in the back of its head. Literally. You HONESTLY think a human can check all of the spots around the vehicle more quickly and more efficiently than a computer?"

    I get that there are bugs to work out as far as what to do and how it processes the information it sees. Sure. But to say a human can see more than a computer with as many sensors as you want to attach to it? Um...no.

  8. #128
    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie View Post
    When that pedestrian was hit by the self driving car a while back, I took a peek at the comments section for the article on KSL - just for entertainment value.

    There was one guy who insisted that a computer would NEVER be as safe as a person, because people can look back and forth between mirrors and also check their blind spots.

    I'm thinking "WHAT?!? A computer can be looking 360 degrees simultaneously. It can have eyes in the back of its head. Literally. You HONESTLY think a human can check all of the spots around the vehicle more quickly and more efficiently than a computer?"

    I get that there are bugs to work out as far as what to do and how it processes the information it sees. Sure. But to say a human can see more than a computer with as many sensors as you want to attach to it? Um...no.
    Believe it or not, but there are lots of things humans can do and process more efficiently than computers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Believe it or not, but there are lots of things humans can do and process more efficiently than computers.
    Including detection of paranormal activity!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Believe it or not, but there are lots of things humans can do and process more efficiently than computers.
    The number of those things is shrinking by the day.

    Speaking of Tesla and this:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/techn...AvQS4T?ffid=gz

    Elon Musk says Tesla relied on too many robots to build the Model 3, which is partly to blame for the delays in manufacturing the crucial mass-market electric car.

  11. #131
    Senior Member Eddie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Believe it or not, but there are lots of things humans can do and process more efficiently than computers.
    Oh, I believe it. I think it was his insistence that a computer will NEVER be able to look behind the car and check blind spots as quickly as a human that I was focused on. I have no doubt that humans process many things more quickly than a computer. Just like I have no doubt that computers process many other things more quickly than a human.

  12. #132
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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  13. #133
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    As I stated earlier in this thread, AI in an open domain like the public transportation system will NEVER happen. The only way to accomplish self-driving cars is if you completely close the system akin to air traffic.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/o...hallenges.html

    A.I. Is Harder Than You Think
    By Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis

    Mr. Marcus is a professor of psychology and neural science. Mr. Davis is a professor of computer science.

    May 18, 2018

    The field of artificial intelligence doesn’t lack for ambition. In January, Google’s chief executive, Sundar Pichai, claimed in an interview that A.I. “is more profound than, I dunno, electricity or fire.”

    Day-to-day developments, though, are more mundane. Last week, Mr. Pichai stood onstage in front of a cheering audience and proudly showed a video in which a new Google program, Google Duplex, made a phone call and scheduled a hair salon appointment. The program performed those tasks well enough that a human at the other end of the call didn’t suspect she was talking to a computer.

    Assuming the demonstration is legitimate, that’s an impressive (if somewhat creepy) accomplishment. But Google Duplex is not the advance toward meaningful A.I. that many people seem to think.

    If you read Google’s public statement about Google Duplex, you’ll discover that the initial scope of the project is surprisingly limited. It encompasses just three tasks: helping users “make restaurant reservations, schedule hair salon appointments, and get holiday hours.”

    Schedule hair salon appointments? The dream of artificial intelligence was supposed to be grander than this — to help revolutionize medicine, say, or to produce trustworthy robot helpers for the home.

    The reason Google Duplex is so narrow in scope isn’t that it represents a small but important first step toward such goals. The reason is that the field of A.I. doesn’t yet have a clue how to do any better.

    As Google concedes, the trick to making Google Duplex work was to limit it to “closed domains,” or highly constrained types of data (like conversations about making hair salon appointments), “which are narrow enough to explore extensively.” Google Duplex can have a human-sounding conversation only “after being deeply trained in such domains.” Open-ended conversation on a wide range of topics is nowhere in sight.

    The limitations of Google Duplex are not just a result of its being announced prematurely and with too much fanfare; they are also a vivid reminder that genuine A.I. is far beyond the field’s current capabilities, even at a company with perhaps the largest collection of A.I. researchers in the world, vast amounts of computing power and enormous quantities of data.

    [...]

    But the basic problem remains the same: No matter how much data you have and how many patterns you discern, your data will never match the creativity of human beings or the fluidity of the real world. The universe of possible sentences is too complex. There is no end to the variety of life.
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  14. #134
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Had a chance to spend some time last week with a guy who does transportation research for a living. Very well-respected guy with a ton of experience and publications. One of his specialty areas right now autonomous vehicles and how they would impact road usage, traffic, etc. Fascinating stuff.

    I told him I was skeptical about how quickly we would overcome the software and safety hurdles associated fully autonomous driving as it is frequently portrayed in the media and by many prognosticators. He smiled and said, "Oh, we are 40-50 years away in my opinion."
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Funny how its the people who actually write software for a living that are the skeptics on autonomous driving.
    Yeah, who could have predicted this?

    Self-Driving Cars are Headed Toward an AI Roadblock

    But the dream of a fully autonomous car may be further than we realize. There’s growing concern among AI experts that it may be years, if not decades, before self-driving systems can reliably avoid accidents. As self-trained systems grapple with the chaos of the real world, experts like NYU’s Gary Marcus are bracing for a painful recalibration in expectations, a correction sometimes called “AI winter.”

    [...]

    Deep learning requires massive amounts of training data to work properly, incorporating nearly every scenario the algorithm will encounter. Systems like Google Images, for instance, are great at recognizing animals as long as they have training data to show them what each animal looks like. Marcus describes this kind of task as “interpolation,” taking a survey of all the images labeled “ocelot” and deciding whether the new picture belongs in the group.

    Engineers can get creative in where the data comes from and how it’s structured, but it places a hard limit on how far a given algorithm can reach. The same algorithm can’t recognize an ocelot unless it’s seen thousands of pictures of an ocelot — even if it’s seen pictures of housecats and jaguars, and knows ocelots are somewhere in between. That process, called “generalization,” requires a different set of skills.

    For a long time, researchers thought they could improve generalization skills with the right algorithms, but recent research has shown that conventional deep learning is even worse at generalizing than we thought. One study found that conventional deep learning systems have a hard time even generalizing across different frames of a video, labeling the same polar bear as a baboon, mongoose, or weasel depending on minor shifts in the background. With each classification based on hundreds of factors in aggregate, even small changes to pictures can completely change the system’s judgment, something other researchers have taken advantage of in adversarial data sets.

    [...]

    Each accident seems like an edge case, the kind of thing engineers couldn’t be expected to predict in advance. But nearly every car accident involves some sort of unforeseen circumstance, and without the power to generalize, self-driving cars will have to confront each of these scenarios as if for the first time. The result would be a string of fluke-y accidents that don’t get less common or less dangerous as time goes on.

    Have no fear though self-driving advocates, there is a solution!

    Andrew Ng — a former Baidu executive, Drive.AI board member, and one of the industry’s most prominent boosters — argues the problem is less about building a perfect driving system than training bystanders to anticipate self-driving behavior. In other words, we can make roads safe for the cars instead of the other way around.

    Just need to tell people to stop doing unpredictable things. Ho hum.

    It's time for the self-driving car advocates to run up the white flag.
    Last edited by Walter Sobchak; 07-05-2018 at 02:09 PM. Reason: formatting
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  15. #135

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    How long before ordinary people driving are able to learn to deal with the chaos? TIA

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    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo Diddley View Post
    How long before ordinary people driving are able to learn to deal with the chaos? TIA
    look_a_squirrel.jpg
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    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    This is the present.

    Tesla stopped selling its full self-driving feature as an add-on option for new buyers on Thursday.
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  18. #138

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    And for every one of these, how many comparable accidents are there with real people behind the steering wheel?

  19. #139
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Two years ago today.

    Yes, this is a new platform, although we’ve been spending more than a year in testing, the feature-set initially will be disabled say well at least for the first few months.

    [...]

    It will be Hardware 2.0 is capable of Level 5 autonomy, the hardware is capable of highest level of autonomy and Hardware 1.0 will continue to improve as we improve the software tat operates the car I mean with already with 7.0 it was unequivocally safer than manually driven cars and with 8.0 that has improved even more. So it would be crazy to turn-off something that is preventing accidents.
    It amazes me people ever took this seriously. Two years later Tesla quietly surrenders.
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  20. #140
    My Mic Sounds Nice falafel's Avatar
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    Not sure if this belongs in the self-driving cars thread, but since we don't have an electric cars thread, here it is:

    From CNBC
    The wait is almost over, even if no one knows what we're waiting for.

    Electric carmaker Tesla suspended all orders on its website and redirected users to a page teasing a mystery announcement CEO Elon Musk said is coming at 5 p.m. ET Thursday.

    Users who attempt to go to any of the company's ordering pages are redirected to a site that says: "The wait is almost over. Great things are launching at 2pm."

    Whatever Tesla will launch is still a mystery. Investors have been expecting updates on several fronts, including the arrival of Tesla's long-promised $35,000 Model 3, a version of the sedan Tesla has been promising since it unveiled the car in 2016.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/tesl...s-website.html
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  21. #141
    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...car-looks-like

    Auto sales in the U.S., after four record or near-record years, are declining this year, and analysts say they may never again reach those heights. Worldwide, residents are migrating to megacities—expected to be home to two-thirds of the global population by midcentury—where an automobile can be an expensive inconvenience. Young people continue to turn away from cars, with only 26 percent of U.S. 16-year-olds earning a driver’s license in 2017, a rite of passage that almost half that cohort would have obtained just 36 years ago, according to Sivak Applied Research. Likewise, the annual number of 17-year-olds taking driving tests in the U.K. has fallen 28 percent in the past decade.

    Meanwhile, mobility services are multiplying rapidly, with everything from electric scooters to robo-taxis trying to establish a foothold in the market.

  22. #142
    Semper infra dignitatem PaloAltoCougar's Avatar
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    ... Young people continue to turn away from cars, with only 26 percent of U.S. 16-year-olds earning a driver’s license in 2017, a rite of passage that almost half that cohort would have obtained just 36 years ago, according to Sivak Applied Research. Likewise, the annual number of 17-year-olds taking driving tests in the U.K. has fallen 28 percent in the past decade...
    I've seen that the foregoing is true, but I still find it astonishing. I'm curious what the percentage was in the late 60's, because going to the DMV the morning of one's sixteenth birthday seemed the standard protocol.

  23. #143
    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PaloAltoCougar View Post
    I've seen that the foregoing is true, but I still find it astonishing. I'm curious what the percentage was in the late 60's, because going to the DMV the morning of one's sixteenth birthday seemed the standard protocol.
    I am 2 for 2 on kids going down to the DMV on their 16th birthday. I was at a transportation conference this week and the discussion was on the changing landscape and where they want it to go. We can't build enough lanes to cancel out the traffic. They really want more ride sharing, transit, walking and biking.

    I can see being in an urban area and never needing to own a car. That is the mind set of many in their 20s is that they will pay less than a car payment using Uber and transit and micro mobility(scooters/bikes). Then rent a limo if you need to drive to Tahoe and you will still end up paying less throughout the year than you would have on gas, insurance...

  24. #144

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    I am 2 for 2 on kids going down to the DMV on their 16th birthday. I was at a transportation conference this week and the discussion was on the changing landscape and where they want it to go. We can't build enough lanes to cancel out the traffic. They really want more ride sharing, transit, walking and biking.

    I can see being in an urban area and never needing to own a car. That is the mind set of many in their 20s is that they will pay less than a car payment using Uber and transit and micro mobility(scooters/bikes). Then rent a limo if you need to drive to Tahoe and you will still end up paying less throughout the year than you would have on gas, insurance...
    They are wrong. They will pay much more when you factor in taxes to support alternate modes and they will have much less overall freedom of movement (better within cities but difficult and expensive to leave). But hey as long as the robots dont kill my career all this is job security for me so bring on the American megacity!

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  25. #145

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    They are wrong. They will pay much more when you factor in taxes to support alternate modes and they will have much less overall freedom of movement (better within cities but difficult and expensive to leave). But hey as long as the robots dont kill my career all this is job security for me so bring on the American megacity!

    Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
    I don't think it's just cost. Many of the options listed can be much more convenient in a city. It just depends on the city.

  26. #146

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    Quote Originally Posted by Omaha 680 View Post
    They are wrong. They will pay much more when you factor in taxes to support alternate modes and they will have much less overall freedom of movement (better within cities but difficult and expensive to leave). But hey as long as the robots dont kill my career all this is job security for me so bring on the American megacity!

    Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk
    agreed, there are maybe 4 cities in the u.s. that are livable without a car.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    I am 2 for 2 on kids going down to the DMV on their 16th birthday. I was at a transportation conference this week and the discussion was on the changing landscape and where they want it to go. We can't build enough lanes to cancel out the traffic. They really want more ride sharing, transit, walking and biking.

    I can see being in an urban area and never needing to own a car. That is the mind set of many in their 20s is that they will pay less than a car payment using Uber and transit and micro mobility(scooters/bikes). Then rent a limo if you need to drive to Tahoe and you will still end up paying less throughout the year than you would have on gas, insurance...
    My oldest 2 also got drivers’ licenses on their 16th birthdays but it is definitely becoming more common for kids to wait until 17 or 18 to start driving in Utah.

    I think most of the phenomenon is that parents are happy to drive kids around and a little bit is bike lanes, Uber and scooters, etc.

  28. #148
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_gregg View Post
    pssst robots are already flying our planes
    Quote Originally Posted by Applejack View Post
    Yeah, is this news?
    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    People (en masse) won't ever fly in a airplane without a pilot for that precise reason... shit happens. Air traffic is about as closed a system as you can find, but still there is an amount of unpredictability that requires immediate human intervention. Yet, here (and elsewhere) you stumble across these rosy (and completely idiotic) predictions of eliminating the automobile driver in the complex, dynamic, and erratic public transportation system that includes motorized, bicycle, and pedestrian traffic.
    How many of you armchair software developers are checking your upcoming flights to see if it is booked on a 737 Max? Just curious.
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  29. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    How many of you armchair software developers are checking your upcoming flights to see if it is booked on a 737 Max? Just curious.
    Pretty crazy and scary that in 2019 a bad sensor and auto-pilot would fly two planes into the ground.

    Maybe you’re right about self-driving cars being a long way off. I’m starting to believe you.

  30. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by CardiacCoug View Post
    Pretty crazy and scary that in 2019 a bad sensor and auto-pilot would fly two planes into the ground.

    Maybe you’re right about self-driving cars being a long way off. I’m starting to believe you.
    I thought WS said they will never happen.

    I did check my flight, more out of fear that I would have to reschedule. My brother's vacation to Hawaii had to rebook and his ititerary sucks now.

    I would have had no problem flying the 737 max 8 or 9 if I really needed to get somewhere. Statistically I'm pretty sure my drive home has a higher risk of death. Just the same, it was the right thing to do to ground them and get this glitch fixed.
    Last edited by beefytee; 03-18-2019 at 02:52 PM.

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