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Thread: Self-Driving Cars

  1. #61
    One man.....one pie Moliere's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Did you pull the trigger?
    Nope. I purposely left the checkbook at home. I’m debating between the 1.5 and 2.0 engines. The 2.0 won’t be avavilbe until January. I like having a bigger engine but also want better gas mileage. They did have the color I want though and I doubled the miles on the car I drove. It started with 6 and I put 6 miles on it.


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  2. #62
    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Did you pull the trigger?
    Back to the gun analogy?
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
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  3. #63

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    Whoa, that non-self driving car isn't close to being a self-driving car? Mind blown.

  4. #64
    My Mic Sounds Nice falafel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    Nope. I purposely left the checkbook at home. I’m debating between the 1.5 and 2.0 engines. The 2.0 won’t be avavilbe until January. I like having a bigger engine but also want better gas mileage. They did have the color I want though and I doubled the miles on the car I drove. It started with 6 and I put 6 miles on it.


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    The what?

    I suppose what you were really saying is that you were committed to not make a purchase today. At least I hope you didn't really "purposely" leave your checkbook at home, as in you had to take it out of your pocket or something.
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  5. #65
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by creekster View Post
    I am not so sure that the impediments to human judgment that Walter points to will not eventually(and soon) be seen as acceptable trade-offs for autonomous vehicles. Will pedestrians or cyclists be victims of autonomous vehicles? Probably so at some point. But will the rate of such incidents be equal to or greater than the rate of incidents involving dumb ass moves by human drivers? I seriously doubt it.
    Heh. Okay. Now consider this... let's imagine that your autonomous vehicle is presented with a situation where, via an unfortunate set of circumstances, it is heading on a collision course toward a crowd of people crossing the road. The car cannot stop in time, but it can avoid killing many people in the crowd by steering into a wall. However, this collision would kill you (the owner) and your child riding in the back seat. What should the software that is running the car do? If you as a prospective autonomous car buyer were aware that the software has been programmed against multiple use cases where it would sacrifice the occupant, would you still buy it?
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  6. #66
    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    I'm not one of those guys who thinks that there will be no human drivers on the road in 5 years, but I can see it taking over most metropolitan areas in the next 15-50 years. It will be a long time before there are no human drivers.

    One of the biggest obstacles mentioned is no lines on the road. I don't think this is a huge hurdle. I think one of the easier solution would be for states to offer electronically marked up maps that are based on surveying that is happening anyways. Some processes may need to be updated to make things more precise and more information may need to be gathered. e.g. where certain speed limits change, and other signage etc., but that is a relatively simple problem. States would be able to update information as things change for construction and other events. Cars would use multiple positioning technologies (not just GPS) to stay in the right place. Lines would only be needed for human drivers then.

    The biggest issue to deal with will be inclement weather. There's a reason these services are starting in Phoenix and Las Vegas.

    The issue about who to kill in bad situation is a non-issue to me. It's not a new issue. Human drivers kill lots of people. Self driving cars will kill much less. I'm fine with the car choosing to kill me as a passenger to save other peoples lives as the scenario is so improbable, I'll take my changes.

    I'm not saying things are ready to go now, but they are problems that can be address and mostly mitigated.

    As far as self-flying vehicles go:

    https://www.engadget.com/2017/11/13/...ing-taxi-test/

    I think there is less demand for pilot-less flights, because flying is much safer than driving and pilots are a small cost compared to aircraft costs and fuel. Don't get me wrong. Airlines will look to get rid of them as a cost saving measure, but it won't be super urgent.

  7. #67
    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    It goes far beyond that one example.

    People almost always overstate the reach of technology when predicting the future (where is my &&#@*@ jetpack?). I can certainly see how we will get cruise control that is more and more automated, but to the point that we replace drivers and remove steering wheels? nfw.
    Swish.

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    Without Humans, Artificial Intelligence Is Still Pretty Stupid
    There are likely hundreds of thousands of people, world-wide, whose work is sold as AI, says one expert
    Great. Let's have a human in the car factory secretly and remotely drive our self-driving car for us. That should work.
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  8. #68

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    Can't remember where I read it, but one author described how the takeover will go down. It will start commercial, with long-distance trucking companies and then uber/Lyft/UPS purchasing huge fleets of vehicles. Within 5 or so years of that, people won't have a choice, as liability will just be too expensive.

    Obviously, that assumes the programming hurdles will be overcome, and I'm a little like JL in that I think we tend to underestimate the obstacles of current ideas (while not imagining the true breakthroughs that are coming), but we're not very far at all from switching over to autonomous on freeways. Imagine how much more efficiently a trucker could go if he could just turn the truck onto autopilot while he sleeps in the cab.
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  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Swish.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/without...pid-1510488000



    Great. Let's have a human in the car factory secretly and remotely drive our self-driving car for us. That should work.
    I remember in the mid to late 80's when computer science/engineering research proposals that had the words "artificial intelligence" were automatically rejected. Looking at the history it seems like the AI research "seasons" go in cycles.
    Last edited by Uncle Ted; 11-13-2017 at 08:31 PM.
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  10. #70
    Strikes and Gutters chrisrenrut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moliere View Post
    I test drove a car today that has lane assist and adaptive cruise control. It was pretty cool. The lane assist worked most of the time but it didn’t work when lane markings were missing or severely faded. The tech today is great but it’s not close to being autonomous.


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    I purchased a Honda this summer with both lane assist and adaptive cruise control. Both were extremely annoying and I've disabled both. The cruise control was especially maddening. When coming up on a vehicle one lane over it would engage by completely letting off the gas, which caused an abrupt deceleration. It was almost scary when doing 80 mph on the way to St George.

    I don't know if they do firmware updates for cars. Yhat might at least offer a improvement through software implementation.

  11. #71
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    This is the future.

    Tesla ‘on Autopilot’ slams into parked fire truck on California freeway

    A Tesla Model S reportedly on “Autopilot” smashed into the back of a fire truck parked at a freeway accident scene Monday morning, authorities said.

    Two investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board are expected to arrive in Los Angeles on Wednesday to probe the crash, and will focus on “the driver’s actions and how the vehicle performed,” Bloomberg reported Jan. 23.

    The union representing Culver City firefighters whose truck was hit around 8:30 a.m. on Interstate 405 in Culver City tweeted that the Tesla driver said he had been using Tesla’s Autopilot system, which performs automated driving tasks.

    [...]

    The fire truck had been parked in the left emergency lane and carpool lane, blocking off the scene of a previous accident, with a CHP vehicle behind it and to the side, said Culver City Fire Department battalion chief Ken Powell.

    Both emergency vehicles had their lights flashing, Powell added.

    The Tesla suffered significant damage, and the fire truck has been taken out of service to have body work done, Powell said.

    Had any firefighters been at the rear of the truck rather than in front attending to the earlier crash, there “probably would not have been a very good outcome,” Powell said.

    “It was a pretty big hit,” Powell said.

    The firefighters union tweet indicated that the Tesla had been traveling at 65 miles per hour before the crash, but it was unclear to what extent the car may have slowed before striking the fire truck.
    Like I said above, autonomous vehicles put everyone at risk... other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. Thank heavens a firefighter wasn't killed.
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  12. #72
    It is NOT a monkey! creekster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    This is the future.

    Tesla ‘on Autopilot’ slams into parked fire truck on California freeway



    Like I said above, autonomous vehicles put everyone at risk... other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. Thank heavens a firefighter wasn't killed.
    That’s the present, not the future.
    PLesa excuse the tpyos.

  13. #73
    Senior Member myboynoah's Avatar
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    I'll wait to see the results of the investigation. Lots of unknowns out there.
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  14. #74
    BYU Delenda Est Mormon Red Death's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    This is the future.

    Tesla ‘on Autopilot’ slams into parked fire truck on California freeway



    Like I said above, autonomous vehicles put everyone at risk... other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians. Thank heavens a firefighter wasn't killed.
    Good point.. human drivers have never had an accident.

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    seems a lawsuit against Tesla could net somebody a fair amount of money.
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  16. #76
    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Funny how its the people who actually write software for a living that are the skeptics on autonomous driving.
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  17. #77
    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    I write software for a living. I'm not a skeptic. While I'm excited for autonomous vehicles, I don't think the transition will be completely smooth and is more likely decades away and not years. Once the transition starts though, it will be swift.

    The technology I don't like is electronic voting machines. Those were a terrible idea.

  18. #78
    𐐐𐐄𐐢𐐆𐐤𐐝 𐐓𐐅 𐐜 𐐢𐐃𐐡𐐔 Uncle Ted's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Funny how its the people who actually write software for a living that are the skeptics on autonomous driving.
    I do software/hardware for a living... I welcome my new autonomous driving overlords! In fact, the next time I am in Boston I'm planing to take a ride: https://www.aol.com/article/finance/...ston/23300423/

    I can't wait for the day when I can say, "Siri, take me to Austin." and I can climb into the backseat and go to sleep.

    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    I write software for a living. I'm not a skeptic. While I'm excited for autonomous vehicles, I don't think the transition will be completely smooth and is more likely decades away and not years. Once the transition starts though, it will be swift.

    The technology I don't like is electronic voting machines. Those were a terrible idea.
    The security on most electronic voting machines is pretty bad... only thing worse is the idea of Internet voting.
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    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uncle Ted View Post
    I do software/hardware for a living... I welcome my new autonomous driving overlords! In fact, the next time I am in Boston I'm planing to take a ride: https://www.aol.com/article/finance/...ston/23300423/

    I can't wait for the day when I can say, "Siri, take me to Austin." and I can climb into the backseat and go to sleep.
    Oh brother.

    The autonomous vehicles have human backup drivers ready to take the wheel if any problems arise.
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Oh brother.
    Those human backup drivers are for skeptics like Walter... someone has to hold their hand.
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
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    Senior Member BigFatMeanie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Oh brother.
    Not Level 5 autonomous: https://www.sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf

  22. #82
    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Had a chance to spend some time last week with a guy who does transportation research for a living. Very well-respected guy with a ton of experience and publications. One of his specialty areas right now autonomous vehicles and how they would impact road usage, traffic, etc. Fascinating stuff.

    I told him I was skeptical about how quickly we would overcome the software and safety hurdles associated fully autonomous driving as it is frequently portrayed in the media and by many prognosticators. He smiled and said, "Oh, we are 40-50 years away in my opinion."
    "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
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  23. #83
    Senior Member myboynoah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Had a chance to spend some time last week with a guy who does transportation research for a living. Very well-respected guy with a ton of experience and publications. One of his specialty areas right now autonomous vehicles and how they would impact road usage, traffic, etc. Fascinating stuff.

    I told him I was skeptical about how quickly we would overcome the software and safety hurdles associated fully autonomous driving as it is frequently portrayed in the media and by many prognosticators. He smiled and said, "Oh, we are 40-50 years away in my opinion."
    That's a good guess. I assume he means full integration of autonomous vehicles into the transportation system, and likely more than 50 percent usage. Did he talk about the stages of adoption and how that will unfold?
    Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

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    Senior Member Omaha 680's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Had a chance to spend some time last week with a guy who does transportation research for a living. Very well-respected guy with a ton of experience and publications. One of his specialty areas right now autonomous vehicles and how they would impact road usage, traffic, etc. Fascinating stuff.

    I told him I was skeptical about how quickly we would overcome the software and safety hurdles associated fully autonomous driving as it is frequently portrayed in the media and by many prognosticators. He smiled and said, "Oh, we are 40-50 years away in my opinion."
    Yes! Looks like I can keep my job. I'll just warn my kids not to follow in my footsteps.

  25. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
    Had a chance to spend some time last week with a guy who does transportation research for a living. Very well-respected guy with a ton of experience and publications. One of his specialty areas right now autonomous vehicles and how they would impact road usage, traffic, etc. Fascinating stuff.

    I told him I was skeptical about how quickly we would overcome the software and safety hurdles associated fully autonomous driving as it is frequently portrayed in the media and by many prognosticators. He smiled and said, "Oh, we are 40-50 years away in my opinion."
    40 to 50 years away from it actually happening, or 40 to 50 years away from the technology advancing to the point where it is superior (i.e., whatever combination of safer, faster, less expensive, etc.) to human driving?

    Either way, he may be right and I hope he's wrong. 50 years is a long time-- only 66 years elapsed from Kitty Hawk to Tranquility Base.
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    Board eye candy beefytee's Avatar
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    First fatality of a vehicle in autonomous mode where supposedly it was the algorithms fault:

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/19/1...-tempe-arizona

    There was a person behind the wheel too. Not sure the point of her being there if she isn't stopping accidents.

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    The dude abides Jeff Lebowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    First fatality of a vehicle in autonomous mode where supposedly it was the algorithms fault:

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/19/1...-tempe-arizona

    There was a person behind the wheel too. Not sure the point of her being there if she isn't stopping accidents.
    Probably farting around on her cell phone.
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  28. #88
    Adventurer Walter Sobchak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    First fatality of a vehicle in autonomous mode where supposedly it was the algorithms fault:

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/19/1...-tempe-arizona

    There was a person behind the wheel too. Not sure the point of her being there if she isn't stopping accidents.
    “Our hearts go out to the victim’s family,” an Uber spokesperson told The Verge.
    Uber sending only thoughts, no prayers.
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  29. #89
    it's all a blur mtnbiker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefytee View Post
    First fatality of a vehicle in autonomous mode where supposedly it was the algorithms fault:

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/19/1...-tempe-arizona

    There was a person behind the wheel too. Not sure the point of her being there if she isn't stopping accidents.
    We were just in Tempe on Saturday, and saw two of those Uber self-driving cars just ahead of us on Scottsdale Road, just north of Curry Road.

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    My Mic Sounds Nice falafel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak View Post
    Uber sending only thoughts, no prayers.
    Uber carries a prayer in its heart, so both bases are covered.
    Ain't it like most people, I'm no different. We love to talk on things we don't know about.

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