Tweet
Now that this disapointing year is almost in the books we can start a thread about next year.
I think that 2013 was disapointing for a few reasons:
1.) We are BYU. The reality is Dave Rose lifted our expectations to levels not really historically seen at BYU. I often spoke of the glory period of BYU hoops years ago when I could see Rose had a squad with a great deal of good LDS talent, most of whom chose not to serve missions. I think this has been good for us to get a bit recalibrated as to where BYU stands.
2.) Recruiting. While I think Rose missed here or there the reality is other than Jordan Loveridge or perhaps the ponytailed Bachynski at ASU, I see little by way of what he missed as far as kids he had a shot at. However, the talent at BYU is not real good right now. It is not horrendous either but to return to where BYU was most of the Rose tenure it needs a shot in the arm of talented basketball players. This year BYU will lose one in Davies and gain at least two in Mika and Collinsworth. Obviously, there are some concerns about how much those guys will be able to contribute as either a true freshman or as a recently returned RM, but having 4 legitimately talented basketball players instead of 3 will be a plus, I think.
3.) Bad luck and injuries. Not just to Chris Collinsworth and Stephan Rogers, but to the other injuries to Anson Winder, Raul Delgado and Nate Austin that negatively impacted their ability to develop in the off-season, but honestly I don't think this is nearly as big of an impact as we would like to think. I think it might have helped BYU to be a bit marginally better and possibly be positioned as a solid NCAA tourney team like last year but I don't think they would be good enough for anyone to think they could compete and win in a first round game.
Now onto next year.
1.) JC infusion. Obviously last year's JC infusions did not infuse much. I think Augie is going to just fill a scholarship for another year. I think Delgado could be a contributor off the bench but that is the limit of physical ability I see in those guys. The only JC's I have heard BYU is pursuing to any extent is Skyler Halford and Sai Tummalla both at SLCC. I don't know if there are others and I don't know if those two are really being pursued by BYU or if they are interested in coming to BYU. We shall see. However, for the sake of discussion I will assume both are being pursued and both sign with BYU. Hence, my for-the-sake-of-discussion BYU roster is such:
Delgado - SR
Ambrosino - SR
Halford - JR
Carlino - JR
Haws - JR
Austin - JR
Sharp - JR
Winder - JR
Collinsworth - SO
Tummalla - SO
Harward - SO
Mika - FR
Worthington - FR
I think the starters/backups will be such:
1.) Carlino, Halford
2.) Haws, Delgado
3.) Tummalla, Winder
4.) Collinsworth, Sharp,
5.) Mika, Austin
I think Harward, Worthington and Ambrosino will see the court very rarely and likely Worthington could see the most of the rares when BYU needs a PF who has some beef to bang. I doubt Harward or Augie ever touch the court during meaningful minutes.
Once again BYU will depend on where Carlino goes. If he finds consistency and plays to his ability every night, or at least most nights/more frequently than he has this year, BYU could be a solid team that makes the dance and is crushed in the first round. I think the starting 5 I put up would be significantly more athletic than this year's team and if BYU inserts Halford by taking out Tummalla or Collinsworth (I think Tummalla could play the 4 for BYU when needed but I do think Kyle C is a better overall fit for the position and Tummalla is a better perimeter shooter so better to keep him on the perimeter) then BYU has a shot of having some decent perimeter shooting. However, I do think that when BYU goes with that lineup that improves perimeter shooting they are giving up a great deal athletically and will be exposed defensively. I actually think the starting 5 could be a decent defensive team but I think they could really struggle to score the ball in the half court game even if Carlino is improved and consistent. I just look at that lineup and see one really good offensive player in Haws, one with decent talent in Carlino but when he tries to do too much (which I think likely next year given the paucity of other offensive options) can hurt the team, a good spot up shooter off the bench in Halford who I think will be athletically challenged at the next level and without a dominant post presence his open looks will be limited, a kid in Kyle C who can get offensive boards and get into the paint but is limited by being a poor jump shooter, a kid in Tummalla who might be good someday but is likely to just lack the experience to do a great deal next year, a true freshman big who I think is a great athlete and likely to impact the game but not somebody who BYU can count on to score in halfcourt sets, and then a glut of solid role players none of whom can score much at all.
Defensively, I do think BYU will improve next year just due to me thinking the team will be more physically talented as far as pure athleticism goes. I think Tummalla and Collinsworth are huge step ups in the athleticism department. But I don't think they will be step ups at all as far as the ability to score the ball.
I think that 2013 was disapointing for a few reasons:
1.) We are BYU. The reality is Dave Rose lifted our expectations to levels not really historically seen at BYU. I often spoke of the glory period of BYU hoops years ago when I could see Rose had a squad with a great deal of good LDS talent, most of whom chose not to serve missions. I think this has been good for us to get a bit recalibrated as to where BYU stands.
2.) Recruiting. While I think Rose missed here or there the reality is other than Jordan Loveridge or perhaps the ponytailed Bachynski at ASU, I see little by way of what he missed as far as kids he had a shot at. However, the talent at BYU is not real good right now. It is not horrendous either but to return to where BYU was most of the Rose tenure it needs a shot in the arm of talented basketball players. This year BYU will lose one in Davies and gain at least two in Mika and Collinsworth. Obviously, there are some concerns about how much those guys will be able to contribute as either a true freshman or as a recently returned RM, but having 4 legitimately talented basketball players instead of 3 will be a plus, I think.
3.) Bad luck and injuries. Not just to Chris Collinsworth and Stephan Rogers, but to the other injuries to Anson Winder, Raul Delgado and Nate Austin that negatively impacted their ability to develop in the off-season, but honestly I don't think this is nearly as big of an impact as we would like to think. I think it might have helped BYU to be a bit marginally better and possibly be positioned as a solid NCAA tourney team like last year but I don't think they would be good enough for anyone to think they could compete and win in a first round game.
Now onto next year.
1.) JC infusion. Obviously last year's JC infusions did not infuse much. I think Augie is going to just fill a scholarship for another year. I think Delgado could be a contributor off the bench but that is the limit of physical ability I see in those guys. The only JC's I have heard BYU is pursuing to any extent is Skyler Halford and Sai Tummalla both at SLCC. I don't know if there are others and I don't know if those two are really being pursued by BYU or if they are interested in coming to BYU. We shall see. However, for the sake of discussion I will assume both are being pursued and both sign with BYU. Hence, my for-the-sake-of-discussion BYU roster is such:
Delgado - SR
Ambrosino - SR
Halford - JR
Carlino - JR
Haws - JR
Austin - JR
Sharp - JR
Winder - JR
Collinsworth - SO
Tummalla - SO
Harward - SO
Mika - FR
Worthington - FR
I think the starters/backups will be such:
1.) Carlino, Halford
2.) Haws, Delgado
3.) Tummalla, Winder
4.) Collinsworth, Sharp,
5.) Mika, Austin
I think Harward, Worthington and Ambrosino will see the court very rarely and likely Worthington could see the most of the rares when BYU needs a PF who has some beef to bang. I doubt Harward or Augie ever touch the court during meaningful minutes.
Once again BYU will depend on where Carlino goes. If he finds consistency and plays to his ability every night, or at least most nights/more frequently than he has this year, BYU could be a solid team that makes the dance and is crushed in the first round. I think the starting 5 I put up would be significantly more athletic than this year's team and if BYU inserts Halford by taking out Tummalla or Collinsworth (I think Tummalla could play the 4 for BYU when needed but I do think Kyle C is a better overall fit for the position and Tummalla is a better perimeter shooter so better to keep him on the perimeter) then BYU has a shot of having some decent perimeter shooting. However, I do think that when BYU goes with that lineup that improves perimeter shooting they are giving up a great deal athletically and will be exposed defensively. I actually think the starting 5 could be a decent defensive team but I think they could really struggle to score the ball in the half court game even if Carlino is improved and consistent. I just look at that lineup and see one really good offensive player in Haws, one with decent talent in Carlino but when he tries to do too much (which I think likely next year given the paucity of other offensive options) can hurt the team, a good spot up shooter off the bench in Halford who I think will be athletically challenged at the next level and without a dominant post presence his open looks will be limited, a kid in Kyle C who can get offensive boards and get into the paint but is limited by being a poor jump shooter, a kid in Tummalla who might be good someday but is likely to just lack the experience to do a great deal next year, a true freshman big who I think is a great athlete and likely to impact the game but not somebody who BYU can count on to score in halfcourt sets, and then a glut of solid role players none of whom can score much at all.
Defensively, I do think BYU will improve next year just due to me thinking the team will be more physically talented as far as pure athleticism goes. I think Tummalla and Collinsworth are huge step ups in the athleticism department. But I don't think they will be step ups at all as far as the ability to score the ball.
Comment