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Thread: Rpi Forecast

  1. #1
    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    Default Rpi Forecast

    I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

    But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.

  2. #2

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    For BYU, that will translate in to a 13 seed and a play in game.

    I think our RPI was a little lower than that last year, but when I was at BYU, I remember having an RPI in the 20s and getting a horrible seed.
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    Heartless Bastard Indy Coug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

    But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.
    An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
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  4. #4

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    How many at larges are there? I think 45? So #34 would put you sitting very pretty.

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    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indy Coug View Post
    An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
    That was what I was afraid of.

    I did the predictor part of the page. Reminded me of the lengthy Massey ratings discussion for football.


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    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indy Coug View Post
    An RPI of 34 or higher is almost guaranteed a bid for a major conference, but for mid-major teams it can still be a bit dicey. IMO, the NCAA has drifted away from the RPI over the past 3-5 years.
    It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

    While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
    70-Florida State
    29-Notre Dame
    59-Iowa State
    38-Baylor

    The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
    109-Tennessee State
    125-Montana
    103-Utah
    132-Virginia Tech

    Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

    Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
    61 - Santa Clara
    87 - St. Mary's
    5 - Gonzaga
    96 - Utah State

    We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
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  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelado View Post
    It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

    While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
    70-Florida State
    29-Notre Dame
    59-Iowa State
    38-Baylor

    The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
    109-Tennessee State
    125-Montana
    103-Utah
    132-Virginia Tech

    Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

    Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
    61 - Santa Clara
    87 - St. Mary's
    5 - Gonzaga
    96 - Utah State

    We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
    Utah is currently BYU's best win? Progress!

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by jay santos View Post
    How many at larges are there? I think 45? So #34 would put you sitting very pretty.
    I butchered this thought. I meant to say that there are enough at larges that the top 45 or so teams make it, including conference champs that are in the top 45.

    It usually goes that the top 30 are locks. About 2/3 of 30 - 40 make it. Then about 1/2 the 40-50 and then some stragglers.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelado View Post
    It seems that they use the RPI more to see how good are the teams you've beaten, and how bad are the teams that have beaten you.

    While we haven't lost to any 100+ RPI teams, we haven't beaten any top 100 RPI teams, either. The current ratings of the teams we've lost to are
    70-Florida State
    29-Notre Dame
    59-Iowa State
    38-Baylor

    The current ratings of the top RPI teams we've beaten are
    109-Tennessee State
    125-Montana
    103-Utah
    132-Virginia Tech

    Most at-large bids have even or better records against the RPI top 50. We are currently 0-2 vs. the top 50 and 0-4 vs. the top 100. At this point, our at-large bid hopes are relatively slim, and likely require at least one win against Gonzaga and maybe no other losses.

    Possible RPI top 100 wins going forward:
    61 - Santa Clara
    87 - St. Mary's
    5 - Gonzaga
    96 - Utah State

    We'll probably have to win the WCC tournament to keep our NCAA streak alive.
    Yes, quality wins are critical and sorely lacking thus far. That home game against Gonzaga is a big one.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by wapiti View Post
    Yes, quality wins are critical and sorely lacking thus far. That home game against Gonzaga is a big one.
    I'm hopeful USU will rise as well.

    There's opportunities for us to make a dent in this.
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  11. #11
    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    We really need the win @ Santa Clara this weekend. And then the home game next week against St Mary's. Those two game really could make the season. Lose the Santa Clara game and we may have to beat Gonzaga at home to make the tourney.

  12. #12
    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    We really need the win @ Santa Clara this weekend. And then the home game next week against St Mary's. Those two game really could make the season. Lose the Santa Clara game and we may have to beat Gonzaga at home to make the tourney.
    We may need to beat Gonzaga twice even if we don't lose to Santa Clara.
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
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  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPiney View Post
    I have always checked RealtimeRpi and liked the individual pages for teams and the projections - BYU

    But I saw this (RPIforecast) yesterday which seems even better. If BYU goes 22-8 the predicted RPI would be 34. Is that good enough for an at large this year? That seems to translate to an 8 or 9 seed in my mind.
    I actually know the guy that runs rpiforecast.com. He is also a Finance professor, and very good guy (Utah State grad too). There are some technical reasons why rpiforecast is better. I had a discussion with him about the site one time and nice discussion about the small mistake realtime rpi was making (it's related to Jensen's inequality).
    Last edited by pelagius; 01-08-2013 at 04:09 PM.

  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelado View Post
    We may need to beat Gonzaga twice even if we don't lose to Santa Clara.
    I think one win over the Zags will be enough if Gonzaga maintains its place on the top 3 lines of the bracket. The bar is pretty low to make the tourney.

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    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wapiti View Post
    I think one win over the Zags will be enough if Gonzaga maintains its place on the top 3 lines of the bracket. The bar is pretty low to make the tourney.
    I hope you're right. My concern is that, even if we win all our other games, only one win against Gonzaga puts us at 1-3 or 1-4 against the top 50. Not exactly awe-inspiring.

    We might need the WCC auto-bid. Of course, earning the auto-bid might get us enough wins to qualify as an at-large.
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
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  16. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by wapiti View Post
    I think one win over the Zags will be enough if Gonzaga maintains its place on the top 3 lines of the bracket. The bar is pretty low to make the tourney.
    not sure


    Right now Lunardi has the MWC as a 6 bid conference this year. If that happens I see the WCC only getting Gonzaga in unless the Zags lose the conference tourney.

  17. #17
    Heartless Bastard Indy Coug's Avatar
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    My biggest issue with independence is how we hung our basketball program out to dry by sticking them in a piss-poor WCC.
    Everything in life is an approximation.

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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flystripper View Post
    not sure


    Right now Lunardi has the MWC as a 6 bid conference this year. If that happens I see the WCC only getting Gonzaga in unless the Zags lose the conference tourney.
    Basketball is the only reason I miss that conference. They have what 3 top 25 teams right now and a few more on the cusp. That conference was a lot of fun for basketball.
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  19. #19
    Where's Wallace? Surfah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surfah View Post
    Basketball is the only reason I miss that conference. They have what 3 top 25 teams right now and a few more on the cusp. That conference was a lot of fun for basketball.
    Speaking of which.

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  20. #20
    Bald not naked Pelado's Avatar
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    After our Santa Clara win, realtimerpi.com is projecting just two more regular season losses - at Gonzaga and at St. Mary's. It projects a one-point home win against Gonzaga (and three other games with margins of victory of 6 points or less). It projects the RPI after the regular season to be 23.
    "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
    - Goatnapper'96

  21. #21
    Huge Member BigPiney's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelado View Post
    After our Santa Clara win, realtimerpi.com is projecting just two more regular season losses - at Gonzaga and at St. Mary's. It projects a one-point home win against Gonzaga (and three other games with margins of victory of 6 points or less). It projects the RPI after the regular season to be 23.
    RPIforecast still looks more accurate or at least realistic. It has the probability of a home win against gonzaga at 46%.
    .
    This next game against the mouthpiece still scares me. But the cougars look like a much better team right now than I expected. Coach Rose be praised.

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