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My rankings of teams from those with the best shot to those with the worst:
1. Denver -- Home field advantage in a place where it really means something. They've won 11 in a row and appear to be getting better. They don't appear to have any big weaknesses right now. Manning is playing well, the running game is good enough and the defense has allowed the lowest number of points in the AFC (3rd lowest overall) -- although four games against the Chiefs and Raiders contributed to that.
2. New England -- While it seems odd to put two AFC teams first, I'm doing it because the other four AFC playoff teams are pretenders -- not so in the NFC. I wonder if the loss to the Niners may have helped the Pats. They've gone into three recent postseasons (2007, 2010 and 2011) looking like the team to beat and then end up getting beat by more physical teams from New York. Perhaps that game a couple weeks ago allows Belichick to tweak things.
3. Green Bay -- Green Bay got shellacked by the Giants a couple weeks ago. Like the Niners, that team is their kryptonite. I wonder how they'd fare against either the Broncos or New England. Teams can light the Pack up, but I also think Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league. The Giants' pass rush neutralizes him and I see him having similar problems against the Broncos and 49ers. The Broncos would score on them at will, the Niners not so much. They would score at will against the Pats.
4. San Francisco -- San Francisco with the bye now has an infinitely easier path to the Super Bowl than Seattle. They have a home game against the Packers in the Divisional Round and then they either will be playing Atlanta on the road or Seattle or Washington at home. I think the Niners match up well with the Packers and I think they would beat either Atlanta on the road or Washington at home. I do, however, think they may lose to Seattle. But I think there's a lower probability of Seattle reaching the NFC Championship then the matchup vs. Atlanta. San Francisco has, at times, played better than anyone in the league and at other times they look shaky. They have road wins against the freaking Packers and Patriots. The essentially ended the 7-2 Bears' season and embarrassed them. But here are the facts about why the Niners may not play to that level -- 1) Their QB is in his first year starting; 2) They're down to two competent WRs and one of them is 35 years old; 3) Their defense isn't the same without Justin Smith. Here are the countervailing facts about the Niners -- 1) Colin Kaepernick is better than Alex Smith. With a better game from Smith last year in the NFC Championship, the Niners would have beaten the Giants last year despite Kyle Williams' fumbles; 2) Vernon Davis can play like a WR and Delanie Walker is a somewhat competent TE, having Davis, Crabtree and Moss isn't exactly a bare cupboard, additionally the Niners run the ball more than most playoff teams; 3) Justin Smith might be coming back and to me this is the most important point. The offense will do its job well enough, but in my mind this team goes to the Super Bowl if Justin Smith can play and they won't go if he can't play.
5. Seattle -- Green Bay was royally screwed at the end of that game against Seattle earlier this year. What's forgotten is that the 'cocks were screwed by a call on the previous drive where Green Bay scored to go ahead. Despite this, Green Bay is pissed and wants payback and I think Seattle is going to have a very tough time beating Green Bay in Lambeau. But it's certainly possible. While Seattle has the toughest road between them, Green Bay and San Francisco, unlike Washington and Atlanta they can actually beat either Green Bay or San Francisco. But unlike Green Bay or San Francisco, they have a really tough first round game.
6. Atlanta -- I think that game yesterday said a lot about Atlanta. They've pulled a lot of games out of their asses and they've had an easy schedule and the stats guys' numbers indicate that these guys aren't making it to the Super Bowl. However, I think they're the last plausible Super Bowl winner on this list.
7. Baltimore -- I was wondering if Baltimore was sneaking around waiting to make some Super Bowl run and just resting their players. They probably thought things were looking good at the #4 seed with the crappy AFC wild cards and probably having to play at the Texans in the second round (assuming that the Pats would take care of business as the second seed). Then Houston lost to Indy and Baltimore will have to play at Denver in the second round. I think that will be a blowout.
8. Houston -- This team strikes me as the AFC twin of Atlanta only with a very marginal QB and the best defensive player in the league. I'm not sure if they even beat Cincy this week.
9. Washington -- I actually like Washington against Seattle and then I don't like them at all vs. the Falcons, Niners or Packers.
10. Minnesota -- If Ponder plays well, which is highly doubtful, Minny could pull off the upset. Minnesota is pretty good in areas where the Packers aren't, but they're not good in the most important area -- QB.
11. Cincinnati -- I think Cincinnati is a talented team with a marginal head coach. Unfortunately for Cincy fans, I'm not sure who would really want to coach for their owner. Did you know they have the 4th best point differential in the AFC and one of the teams ahead of them is the nosediving Texans? An argument can be made that they're the third best team in the AFC. If these guys beat the Texans, and they might, then the Broncos have to be careful not to look past these guys. I should have these guys higher now that I think of it, but making the Super Bowl with two road games against the Broncos and Pats is impossible.
12. Indy -- How many games have these guys won by a touchdown or less? They have a negative point differential but they've gone 11-5. How many times has this happened? I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys went 5-11 next year.
1. Denver -- Home field advantage in a place where it really means something. They've won 11 in a row and appear to be getting better. They don't appear to have any big weaknesses right now. Manning is playing well, the running game is good enough and the defense has allowed the lowest number of points in the AFC (3rd lowest overall) -- although four games against the Chiefs and Raiders contributed to that.
2. New England -- While it seems odd to put two AFC teams first, I'm doing it because the other four AFC playoff teams are pretenders -- not so in the NFC. I wonder if the loss to the Niners may have helped the Pats. They've gone into three recent postseasons (2007, 2010 and 2011) looking like the team to beat and then end up getting beat by more physical teams from New York. Perhaps that game a couple weeks ago allows Belichick to tweak things.
3. Green Bay -- Green Bay got shellacked by the Giants a couple weeks ago. Like the Niners, that team is their kryptonite. I wonder how they'd fare against either the Broncos or New England. Teams can light the Pack up, but I also think Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league. The Giants' pass rush neutralizes him and I see him having similar problems against the Broncos and 49ers. The Broncos would score on them at will, the Niners not so much. They would score at will against the Pats.
4. San Francisco -- San Francisco with the bye now has an infinitely easier path to the Super Bowl than Seattle. They have a home game against the Packers in the Divisional Round and then they either will be playing Atlanta on the road or Seattle or Washington at home. I think the Niners match up well with the Packers and I think they would beat either Atlanta on the road or Washington at home. I do, however, think they may lose to Seattle. But I think there's a lower probability of Seattle reaching the NFC Championship then the matchup vs. Atlanta. San Francisco has, at times, played better than anyone in the league and at other times they look shaky. They have road wins against the freaking Packers and Patriots. The essentially ended the 7-2 Bears' season and embarrassed them. But here are the facts about why the Niners may not play to that level -- 1) Their QB is in his first year starting; 2) They're down to two competent WRs and one of them is 35 years old; 3) Their defense isn't the same without Justin Smith. Here are the countervailing facts about the Niners -- 1) Colin Kaepernick is better than Alex Smith. With a better game from Smith last year in the NFC Championship, the Niners would have beaten the Giants last year despite Kyle Williams' fumbles; 2) Vernon Davis can play like a WR and Delanie Walker is a somewhat competent TE, having Davis, Crabtree and Moss isn't exactly a bare cupboard, additionally the Niners run the ball more than most playoff teams; 3) Justin Smith might be coming back and to me this is the most important point. The offense will do its job well enough, but in my mind this team goes to the Super Bowl if Justin Smith can play and they won't go if he can't play.
5. Seattle -- Green Bay was royally screwed at the end of that game against Seattle earlier this year. What's forgotten is that the 'cocks were screwed by a call on the previous drive where Green Bay scored to go ahead. Despite this, Green Bay is pissed and wants payback and I think Seattle is going to have a very tough time beating Green Bay in Lambeau. But it's certainly possible. While Seattle has the toughest road between them, Green Bay and San Francisco, unlike Washington and Atlanta they can actually beat either Green Bay or San Francisco. But unlike Green Bay or San Francisco, they have a really tough first round game.
6. Atlanta -- I think that game yesterday said a lot about Atlanta. They've pulled a lot of games out of their asses and they've had an easy schedule and the stats guys' numbers indicate that these guys aren't making it to the Super Bowl. However, I think they're the last plausible Super Bowl winner on this list.
7. Baltimore -- I was wondering if Baltimore was sneaking around waiting to make some Super Bowl run and just resting their players. They probably thought things were looking good at the #4 seed with the crappy AFC wild cards and probably having to play at the Texans in the second round (assuming that the Pats would take care of business as the second seed). Then Houston lost to Indy and Baltimore will have to play at Denver in the second round. I think that will be a blowout.
8. Houston -- This team strikes me as the AFC twin of Atlanta only with a very marginal QB and the best defensive player in the league. I'm not sure if they even beat Cincy this week.
9. Washington -- I actually like Washington against Seattle and then I don't like them at all vs. the Falcons, Niners or Packers.
10. Minnesota -- If Ponder plays well, which is highly doubtful, Minny could pull off the upset. Minnesota is pretty good in areas where the Packers aren't, but they're not good in the most important area -- QB.
11. Cincinnati -- I think Cincinnati is a talented team with a marginal head coach. Unfortunately for Cincy fans, I'm not sure who would really want to coach for their owner. Did you know they have the 4th best point differential in the AFC and one of the teams ahead of them is the nosediving Texans? An argument can be made that they're the third best team in the AFC. If these guys beat the Texans, and they might, then the Broncos have to be careful not to look past these guys. I should have these guys higher now that I think of it, but making the Super Bowl with two road games against the Broncos and Pats is impossible.
12. Indy -- How many games have these guys won by a touchdown or less? They have a negative point differential but they've gone 11-5. How many times has this happened? I wouldn't be surprised at all if these guys went 5-11 next year.
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