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Never too early to be thinking ahead.
I have to wonder what the GOP field will look like in this primary. Most of the 2012 primary candidates are pretty toxic at this point. Gingrich and Santorum are yesterday's news. Perry was exposed in this election. Bachman would have been, if she had stuck around much longer. The 2012 primaries were pretty devastating for Jon Huntsman, meanwhile, who I always thought was running for 2016, but he failed to pick up any traction among Republicans whatsoever. He's the Republican Democrats want to be the Republican candidate. Jon Huntsman might throw his hat in the ring if he has a good two years, but I'm not sure at this point that this happens. Herman Cain is a punchline. Ron Paul . . . nothing needs to be said here, I think.
My guess is that the frontrunners of the GOP primary will be those who watched the primary on the sidelines. Portman and Pawlenty might show some interest, but I'd guess they will have limited impact, having been passed on for so long by so many. Chris Christie could make a splash, but I doubt enough people are willing to look past his weight.
The favorites at this point have got to be Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio. No Republican was better served by the 2012 election than Paul Ryan, who was thrust into the spotlight as an authority (whether you agreed with him or not) on the budget and the need for fiscal restraint. His social platform puts him pretty far on the right, which could continue to be a problem for a center that is increasingly libertarian. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, represents the fastest-growing demographic in the nation and the Republican party's fastest-growing liability. He is fairly junior in the Senate, but this comes with advantages and disadvantages, giving him neither a track record nor a paper trail. Even if Marco Rubio doesn't emerge as the presidential candidate, he's among the most compelling VP candidates. Some governor from some conservative state may well make a push.
As for Dems, the conversation begins and ends with Hillary Clinton. It's the choice they should have made in 2008, and I suspect most are inclined to try it again. The only person who may not be on board is Clinton herself, but then again, disavowals of interest in running are almost a prerequisite at this point. She may be pressed into service by an otherwise scant cupboard. Joe Biden and Harry Reid certainly aren't going very far in a national election. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is an unknown quantity, but you get automatic points by being governor of a big blue state. I've seen Rahm Emmanuel's name mentioned a time or two, as well. Cory Booker, mayor of Newark, NJ, gave a well-received speech at the convention, but is also pretty young-- maybe too young for the top spot. Then again, a young African-American can do a lot to shore up the bottom half of the ticket.
My guess as of now:
GOP: Paul Ryan, with Marco Rubio as his running mate
Dems: Hillary Clinton, with Cory Booker as her running mate
I have to wonder what the GOP field will look like in this primary. Most of the 2012 primary candidates are pretty toxic at this point. Gingrich and Santorum are yesterday's news. Perry was exposed in this election. Bachman would have been, if she had stuck around much longer. The 2012 primaries were pretty devastating for Jon Huntsman, meanwhile, who I always thought was running for 2016, but he failed to pick up any traction among Republicans whatsoever. He's the Republican Democrats want to be the Republican candidate. Jon Huntsman might throw his hat in the ring if he has a good two years, but I'm not sure at this point that this happens. Herman Cain is a punchline. Ron Paul . . . nothing needs to be said here, I think.
My guess is that the frontrunners of the GOP primary will be those who watched the primary on the sidelines. Portman and Pawlenty might show some interest, but I'd guess they will have limited impact, having been passed on for so long by so many. Chris Christie could make a splash, but I doubt enough people are willing to look past his weight.
The favorites at this point have got to be Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio. No Republican was better served by the 2012 election than Paul Ryan, who was thrust into the spotlight as an authority (whether you agreed with him or not) on the budget and the need for fiscal restraint. His social platform puts him pretty far on the right, which could continue to be a problem for a center that is increasingly libertarian. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, represents the fastest-growing demographic in the nation and the Republican party's fastest-growing liability. He is fairly junior in the Senate, but this comes with advantages and disadvantages, giving him neither a track record nor a paper trail. Even if Marco Rubio doesn't emerge as the presidential candidate, he's among the most compelling VP candidates. Some governor from some conservative state may well make a push.
As for Dems, the conversation begins and ends with Hillary Clinton. It's the choice they should have made in 2008, and I suspect most are inclined to try it again. The only person who may not be on board is Clinton herself, but then again, disavowals of interest in running are almost a prerequisite at this point. She may be pressed into service by an otherwise scant cupboard. Joe Biden and Harry Reid certainly aren't going very far in a national election. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo is an unknown quantity, but you get automatic points by being governor of a big blue state. I've seen Rahm Emmanuel's name mentioned a time or two, as well. Cory Booker, mayor of Newark, NJ, gave a well-received speech at the convention, but is also pretty young-- maybe too young for the top spot. Then again, a young African-American can do a lot to shore up the bottom half of the ticket.
My guess as of now:
GOP: Paul Ryan, with Marco Rubio as his running mate
Dems: Hillary Clinton, with Cory Booker as her running mate
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